Pittsburgh Pirates Hot Stove Target: Taijuan Walker

The Pittsburgh Pirates are still in search of a young arm to fill out their starting rotation.

The Seattle Mariners talked to the Pittsburgh Pirates this past summer about Andrew McCutchen‘s availability.

That much, we know.

What we don’t know is how far the talks got to. But, more importantly, what we don’t know is how McCutchen might bounce back from the worst season of his career.

If there is a better candidate for a bounce back season in the National League, it would be hard to find one better than McCutchen. Andrew vastly under-performed last season compared to the norm, only batting .256. He struck out more, walked less, and needed a solid finish to the season to provide anything resembling hope.

The likelihood that he has a bounce back season seems strong. In that light, any potential deal involving McCutchen has to involve a particularly strong return. Today we will profile a starting pitcher that may fit that bill: RHP Taijuan Walker.

Career-to-Date

Walker is 24 years old and has spent his entire career with the Mariners. Here is a snapshot look at his 62 Major League starts:

 

 

Walker was a big hit when he came up to the majors. Many thought that he would make a formidable 1,2 punch with Felix Hernandez. It appears he may have been rushed into the major league scene as he has struggled a bit in his first 2 seasons of full-time work.

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Walker posted a 4.22 ERA over 134.1 innings in 2016, which are modest numbers. It would be fair to say that pitching in PNC Park could help his numbers, but how much remains an unknown. Walker is only 24 years old and still has a lot of upside. He has a strong, downhill fastball and has been working on his off-speed pitches.

One particular reason that Walker could be effective at PNC Park is that his curve ball creates more ground balls than the average pitcher according to Brooks Baseball. Walker relies on the pitch at an 11.95 percent clip, third behind his split finger fastball and four seamer. The curveball creates a groundball rate of 58.82 percent, bested only by his split finger’s rate of 64.71.

Even More Stuff To Work With

That is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of Walker’s “stuff.” The Pittsburgh Pirates would have a ton to work with in terms of pitch selection, including:

-A slider that could be improved upon. It was not used very much in 2016 – just 2.17 percent – but has good movement and spin. It could become a key wipeout pitch for him if he would develop it. Another key stat that stands out about Walker’s slider is that when he throws the pitch, it just a 10.34 percent whiff rate, which limits its effectiveness.

-A four-seamer that has some good backspin. Walker utilizes the pitch at a 59.59 percent clip and averages 94.6 MPH. In at-bats with two strikes, Walker throws the straight heat 53.97 percent of the time, but generates only a 10.56 percent whiff rate. If he were to come to Pittsbugh, it would be fair to say that the heat would not be labelled as an out pitch.

-The split-finger fastball was used the most and carried the highest whiff rate (just under 15 percent) in 2016. It was also the second-most used pitch in two strike counts, and was fairly effective with a 13 percent whiff rate.

Throw in a cut fastball and the aforementioned curveball, and there is a lot in the cupboard for Ray Searage to tinker with.

The Case Against Walker

Walker’s home runs per nine has jumped each year, hitting a high of 1.8 in 2016.

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One reason for this jump may be that hitters were starting to guess fastball, which would be an intelligent guess for a batter when a pitcher is utilizing a pitch 59.49% of the time. Another may be that Walker was getting behind in counts. Statistics show that Walker only throws around 22% for strikes when using anything other than the fourseam fastball (30.57%). The final issue that is worth discussing is Walkers’ injury history. It is impossible to predict why an athlete gets injured at a higher frequency, but one could surmise that larger athletes, especially pitchers, have a higher rate of injury. Walker stands 6’4” tall and weighs 235 lbs, which is a large amount of force coming off the mound towards home plate.

On October 17^th, Walker underwent surgery on his ankle to remove a bone fragment. He is expected to start the 2017 MLB season healthy. It is impossible to tell if the torque he places on his mechianics would result in further injury, but it may be enough of a red flag to give the Pittsburgh Pirates pause.

The Case For Walker

All data aside, Walker did come down the stretch strong last season, posting a 2.37 ERA in his final three starts. Walker boasted a 42.2% GB ratio in 2016, which may suggest he would fit well in Pittsburgh under Searage. As a Super Two eligible player, Walker will hit his first round of arbitration this year, but figures to receive modest raises given his track record and injury history.

What it Might Take

McCutchen would be the centerpiece of any deal, as the Mariners need right-handed hitting outfield help desperately. There are some intriguing prospect arms in the Mariners’ system, including RHP Nick Niedert. He carries a 60-rates fastball with very complementary stuff. Walker and Niedert could jumpstart talks, but it is likely that the Pittsburgh Pirates might ask for more.

The bottom line, it’s McCutchen or no deal for the Mariners. With so many teams checking in on their prospects to get the former MVP, the Pirates may have their pick of packages before all is said and done. Should that be the case, they could do a lot worse than Taijuan Walker.

Photo Credit – Flickr Creative Commons