Pittsburgh Pirates Hot Stove Target: Tanner Roark

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals were summer pen pals in more ways than one.  Could they consummate another flirtation?

The Pittsburgh Pirates connected on a trade to send closer Mark Melancon to the Washington Nationals last summer. Multiple reports, notably from Ken Rosenthal, have shed light that the Pirates and Nationals also discussed a trade involving Andrew McCutchen. Other than prospect Victor Robles, no specific Nationals are known to have been discussed.

Over at Sports On Earth, and picked up by MLB.com, Michael Klopman discussed a trade scenario in which pitcher Tanner Roark could make his way to the Pirates in a hypothetical Washington/Pittsburgh trade, among other pieces.

Would the four-year veteran be considered established enough to be a centerpiece in a potential McCutchen deal?

Career-to-Date

As mentioned, Roark is a four-year veteran, having made 119 appearances – 81 starts – in his short career to date. Here’s a complete look:

 

 

Roark has spent time in both the bullpen and on the starter’s mound, though manager Dusty Baker wisely slotted him into the rotation before spring training was over. Roark has actually put up slightly better career numbers as a reliever, but the difference is negligible in several key peripherals.

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Looking a bit deeper into Roark’s pitch selection shows a lot to like.

Stuff and How Roark Uses It

The Pittsburgh Pirates would likely welcome Roark’s legitimate five-pitch mix, with a sinking fastball, curve, slider and change accompanying the standard-issue four seam fastball. Roark is not a classic fireballer, as none of his pitches hit 94 miles per hour, but he mixes speeds effectively. His changeup rests at about 85 miles per hour, showing enough separation to be effective, and his slider clocks in at an effective 86.08 mph for 2016 – hitting above 88 mph at times.

Roark greatly prefers his sinker, both overall and in two strike counts. All told, his sinker accounts for 44.7 percent of his pitches. On two-strike counts, that figure sits at 42.9.

The pitch’s usage is peculiar. Opponents hit .271 against it in 2016, and slugged .380 against the pitch. It is entirely fair to wonder a small tinkering in usage rates could increase his effectiveness, though it is hard to quibble with the results shown above. With the right mix, Roark could easily msis more bats.

What pitching coach would not be tempted to have Roark mix in stuff like this rather than the sinking stuff:

via GIPHY

Roark strikes out just 6.6 hitters per nine for his career, though he did see an uptick in 2016 with a 7.4 figure. This is surprising, as Roark’s plate discipline peripherals are underwhelming.

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Roark’s O-Swing (percentage of pitches outside of the zone that batters offer at) is just a tick below the National League’s rating for 2016 as a whole, but this only tells half the tale. With low First-strike (percentage of first pitches of an at-bat thrown for strikes) and a low swinging-strike rate, Roark is forced to come into the zone more often than he would like. When his movement is not working like it is capable of, this spells trouble.

Roark’s FIP in 2016 was higher than his ERA, suggesting a great benefit from good defense and luck. Regardless of any perceived kinks in his stuff, there is undoubtedly enough to work with to get any pitching coach excited.

The Nationals Could Be Motivated Sellers

Roark represents one of the Nationals best trade chips. With MLB’s #1 SP prospect Lucas Giolito perhaps ready for a full-time role in the bigs, a pitcher like Roark could be squeezed out of a rotation that already included Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Joe Ross and other heralded prospect Reynaldo Lopez. With some serious questions across the diamond, the Nationals could be motivated sellers when it comes to Roark, especially in light of this year’s weak free agent starting pitching crop.

However, despite that, any deal for Roark won’t be cheap.

Through some brilliant roster management, Roark will just be entering his first year of arbitration this winter, and will be under team control through 2019. Any team that trades Roark would thus be getting three years of a pitcher just entering his prime. This will drive the cost up considerably. It is no wonder then that the Pittsburgh Pirates might have to part with a name like Andrew McCutchen to bring Roark in.

In that light, one has to wonder if there are better options than Roark out there for a team to give up a player of McCutchen’s caliber and pedigree. Chris Archer of the Rays comes to mind as one such example.

Still, it is hard not to picture Roark as being able to fine tune his already solid foundation, finding another level given the right pitching coach. And the Pittsburgh Pirates have a pretty good one in Ray Searage.

The price may be steep, but the Pittsburgh Pirates could do a lot worse in focusing their trade efforts on Tanner Roark.

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Photo Credit – Keith Allison – Flickr Creative Commons