Will the Pittsburgh Pirates Welcome Jon Niese Back For 2017?

Have the Pittsburgh Pirates already seen enough to reach a decision on Jon Niese‘s future with the club?

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jon Niese has not come as advertised.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in free fall. Today’s tilt against the San Francisco Giants was a typical 2016 Pirates loss. Beset by bad starting pitching, the club held a brief 1-0 lead before giving way to a four-run Giants’ third inning.

Turning our attention specifically to today’s starter, it is now entirely possible that the team has seen enough to make a decision on Jon Niese’s future.

Going into the season, proponents of the Niese/Neil Walker trade pointed to his pitch selection and groundball rate. A classic sinking/moving fastball pitcher, Niese was welcomed in as Ray Searage‘s latest project. Going into today’s game, Niese had been anything but a success story.

With Eyes Now Wide Open

While many who pictured an improved season from the left-hander now see clearly, perhaps expecting Niese to be anything other than what he has been historically was unwise.

If we compare the southpaw’s 2016 season against his previous campaigns, we see no truly discerning aspect to his performance that isn’t more or less inline with his career. Save for his home runs allowed, a career worst 1.9 per nine innings, Niese has come as advertised.

The home runs truly are his achilles heel, and that becomes more apparent after looking at some of his other peripherals. Niese actually carries the highest ground ball rate on the starting staff at 53.8 percent. His O-Swing percentage (pitches swung at outside of the zone) also leads the club at 29.8 percent. His F-Strike (First strike) percentage is a solid 62.4 percent.

Niese actually has a better line drive rate (19.3) than Gerrit Cole (25.9). He surprisingly has the lowest fly ball rate of 26.9 percent, but, again, the home runs do him in with a HR/FB ratio of 23.9.

What Now, Then?

The question now becomes: What will the Pittsburgh Pirates do with Niese going forward? The nine-year veteran has an interesting contract, in that it carries two club options for 2017/2018. Both options are affordable, with a $10 million value for ’17 and an $11 million mark for ’18. Both carry identical $500,000 buyouts.

As it stands now, the only starting pitchers under contract with big league experience are Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jeff Locke, Jameson Taillon and Wilfredo Boscan. Tyler Glasnow waits in the wings, and stands to have a great shot at making the 2017 opening day roster.

Would the team be comfortable letting Niese go?

The answer isn’t as clear as his 2016 performance would lead you to think.

The market for free agent pitching is widely thought to be very weak. However, teams will still need to fill out rotations, and the likelihood that Niese winds up back with the Pirates may depend entirely on other pitcher performances.

Too Late to Control His Own Destiny?

Taillon has the look of a major-league capable pitcher. Cole has fully legitimized himself, and Liriano still holds considerable value despite his current struggles. Barring a truly epic collapse that could result in a Liriano deal, that leaves two spots open in the rotation for 2017, and three completely viable options to fill them.

Assuming Glasnow will be in the rotation to start 2017, that leaves two left-handers for one spot. Though his history is checkered, the team may prefer to keep Locke over Niese, as Locke will come cheaper. The club can then go about finding a legitimate sixth starting pitcher, something they were sorely lacking as they started the current campaign.

The bottom line here, is that Niese may have already left enough of the wrong impression on Neal Huntington and his staff. If other options on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ current 40-man continue to pitch adeqately, the club may have no qualms about cutting ties with the former New York Met.