Pittsburgh Pirates 1B Josh Bell has cooled off considerably. What has caused his most recent slump?
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ rookie of the year candidate still leads the team in home runs and has had a nice year, but he has been mired in a significant slump over the past several week. Bell is hitting .222/.303/.432 with nine home runs and 10 doubles. He has 41 strikeouts and 20 walks on the season. 20 of those strikeouts have come in his last 24 games. Dating back to May 7th, Bell has slashed just .169/.239/.373.
Though it is important to remember that he is still technically a rookie, it is tempting to view Bell in a different light based on the patience seen from him last season and the performance he put up during parts of this season.
With that in mind, can we chalk Bell’s current lull up to normal growing pains or something more?
The curse of batting third?
Bell has batted third in the order for Pittsburgh Pirates in the past eight games. Coincidentally or not, that is when his slump really started. When batting third, Bell has three hits in 34 at bats. He has seen his batting average has dip from .254 to .222. More alarmingly, he has struck out 10 times and walked just once when hitting third. That adds up to an abysmal .111 on-base percentage
Perhaps Bell is pressing. That would certainly seem to be the case in these two strikeouts, both hittable pitches.
First, a changeup against Randall Delgado that Bell was clearly bout in front of:
And then there is this high heat fastball landing in a zone in which Bell has hit fairly well against:
These are just two examples, but the overall point is that perhaps the league is making adjustments to his approach and it is now up to him to adjust back.
Batting third has been somewhat of a curse for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. The third hitter in the order has combined to hit .192/.258/.327 with six home runs this season. For those without a calculator, that adds up to a .586 OPS.
Most of that damage has come from Andrew McCutchen, who’s now finding success hitting lower in the order. Bell has taken the reigns for now, but he has struck out 27.8 percent of the time during his three-hole funk.
Overall this season, he’s struck out 20.7 percent of the time. The increase isn’t outlandish, but it’s not slight either. Bell has walked one time in his 36 plate appearances when batting third good for a rate of 2.8 percent. On the season, Bell has walked 10.1 percent of the time.
Pitchers are adjusting
At a glance, it may seem like Bell is trying to do a little to much. Patience is key to his game. If he’s not taking his walks, he must be swinging at bad pitches, right?
This year, Bell has seen 4.14 pitches per at bat, 13th in the National League. Over the past eight games, Bell has still seen 4.11 pitches per at bat. He still remains patient.
The problem is that he is simply accumulating more strikes. When batting third this season, Bell is seeing a strike 65.5 percent of the time (97 strikes out of 148 total pitches, including foul balls). He has seen a higher rate of strikes batting third than anywhere else in the order – his overall percentage of strikes seen is at 60.3 percent.
What has happened over the past eight games is that Bell is remaining patient but pitchers are pumping in more strikes and getting ahead in the count.
He is walking less and striking out more because he is swinging at bad pitches while not making contact on good ones.
Sometimes, it is as simple as that.
Over the last eight games in which Bell has hit third, his whiff percentage has increased by about five percent – 14.5 percent against 9.8 percent at other batting spots.
Bell swings and misses by zone – third spot in order
This zone map reinforces our initial thought.
Josh Bell is pressing. And opposing pitchers now know it, and are taking advantage.
Final thoughts
Josh Bell has a great eye.
He has a great sense of the strike zone.
He does a tremendous job of making the pitcher work and waiting for the pitch he wants to hit.
Sometimes though, Bell is a little too patient. Getting behind in the count is a nearly a death sentence to major league hitters. Very few can hit consistently when behind in the count. With Bell, a more aggressive approach might be helpful.
All in all, Bell will be fine. The Pittsburgh Pirates might want to consider keeping him in the third spot and letting him work thgouht it. The benefits far outweigh the negatives, and a 3-34 slump is merely a blip on the radar screen.
The Pirates are still early enough in the season where such a slump has a profound impact on overall numbers. This game is about adjustments and tinkering.
They don’t call Josh Bell “Tinker Bell” for nothing.
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