Josh Harrison Extension in Retrospect:  Buyer’s Remorse?

Josh Harrison has been in the news recently as a potential trade chip for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Some have even gone so far as to say his recent contract extension was not a great deal for the club.  This article will examine Josh Harrison’s contract and seek to answer that question.

Show me the money

Harrison received his contract extension on April 8, 2015 after a 2014 season where broke out of the utility role to become the Pirate’s regular third baseman.  In addition to playing some stellar defense at the hot corner, he hit for a slash line of .315/.347/.490 in that season.  His new contract put him under team control until 2020 and was viewed by many league insiders at the time as a reasonable chance to take on a player that had, in essence, one good year.

According to Baseball Reference, the details of Harrison’s contract are as follows:

Year	Salary	Team Buyout Option
2015	$   3.05 M + $ 1 M signing
2016	$   5.25 M
2017	$   7.75 M
2018	$ 10.25 M
2019 (option)	$ 10.5 M	$ 1 M
2020 (option)	$ 11.5 M	$ 1 M

The extension sent the message that Jay Hay was the Pittsbugh Pirates’ second baseman of the future.  Given that Harrison was third in the NL in batting average, banged out 13 home runs and also stole 18 bases in 2014, this contract seems like a sweetheart deal for the Pirates if Harrison continued to play anywhere close this level.

Offensive offense?

The problem was that Harrison did not continue to play like his 2014 self.  In fact, it is looking more and more like 2014 was the excursion.  Since then, Harrison has posted .287/.327/.390 and .283/.311/.388 in the 2015 and 2016 seasons.  In 2016, he was the 10^th best second baseman (out of 20 qualified players) in baseball when it came to batting average, however, he ranked 17^th in OBP and 19^th in slugging percentage.  He missed significant blocks of time in 2015 and 2016 with injuries, although they were not of the career-threatening variety.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Harrison’s offensive numbers look a lot better if you focus in on his time as a leadoff hitter. [/perfectpullquote]

However, there is much more to the Josh Harrison hitting story than the slash line.  First of all, the guy hits both lefties and righties with equal fervor.  His career batting average of .284 splits out as .282 against RHP and .290 against LHP.  He is not someone you have to worry about platooning.  His BB/K ratio for 2016 was 0.236 which seems abysmal.  However, if you know Jay Hay, you know he has never seen a pitch he can’t hit.  This leads him to almost never take a base on balls.  In 2016, he ranked dead least among all qualified NL hitters in free passes with 18.  On the flip side, he was one of the top 10 qualified hitters with the fewest strikeouts at 76.

Harrison’s offensive numbers look a lot better if you focus in on his time as a leadoff hitter.  His career average in the #1 spot is .308 and even in a “down” year in 2016, it was .327.  He is averaging 16 stolen bases a season and likely would have more in this category if he hit leadoff on a more regular basis.  Lately, Clint Hurdle doesn’t seem comfortable with Harrison in the leadoff spot, even though he used him prodigiously in that role in 2015 to win 98 games.  Perhaps this is because Harrison’s OBP is not much higher than his batting average.  If Harrison walked more, we would probably be calling him a prototypical leadoff man and he would have been a lot more expensive to sign.

Defending his defense

Harrison plays great defense at second base and he brings energy and enthusiasm to the position.  He makes slightly more errors than the average second baseman, however, his range is much greater.  In 2016 alone, his dWAR (defensive wins above replacement) was 1.1, below only four other 2Bs.  Maybe you will recognize the players ahead of him on this list – Javier Baez, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano.  For the Pirates faithful, he is a breath of fresh air on defense after years of watching Neil Walker wave at grounders more than two steps away from him.

Contract worth every penny

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The problem was that Harrison did not continue to play like his 2014 self. [/perfectpullquote]

Not only was the contract extension worth it for the PittsburghPirates, it looks like it might even be called “team-friendly” if Harrison is used as a leadoff hitter.  It seems that at the top of the order, Harrison can deliver close to his career leadoff numbers of .308 batting average and a .344 OBP with 16 stolen bases.  Even if he delivers a .290/.330 performance, he will still be in the upper echelon of second basemen.  He doesn’t hit a lot of home runs, but that is just fine for a leadoff hitter.  He was paid only $5.25 M in 2016, ranking him near the bottom of the salary range.  Going forward, he will make $7.75M in 2017 and $10.25M in 2018, which Spotrac expects will rank him 12^th and 9^th respectably.  Defensively, he is in the same sphere as Pedroia, Kinsler and Cano, who will average $17M in salary next season.

It is clear it would cost the Pirates more than Harrison’s 2017 salary to replace his offensive and defensive production with a known quantity.  Cheaper options exist within the Pirates system, but the top two candidates are not great options.  Adam Frazier can definitely hit, but he played a very poor second base last season in limited action.  The Pirates need to see another season of work from Frazier before they would trust him with such an important full-time position.  Alan Hanson appears to be solid defensively, but hasn’t shown he can hit in AAA, much less the majors.

Harrison needs to avoid the injuries that forced him into the DL each of the last two seasons.  He could also help his case for the leadoff spot by taking more walks.  His O-swing % (percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which he swings) is 37.7%, well above the league average of ~30%.  Think about a Josh Harrison that turns 20 of his strikeouts into walks.  He is that close to being one of the premier leadoff hitters in baseball, which would make his contract seem like a steal for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

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