After a heated series against the Washington Nationals, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs for the final time this season starting a four game set tonight.
The final week of the season is upon us as this will be the final week the Pittsburgh Pirates will play baseball in 2016. They are 4.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with seven games left to play. They are not officially eliminated. Yet. The playoff elimination magic number is down to three.
Tonight they will play the Chicago Cubs who won their 99th game of the season last night, one more than the Pirates won last year. At this point, the Cubs have absolutely nothing to play for so it will be interesting to see how they approach this series.
Will they rest players this week? Are starting pitchers going to be on a limited pitch count? Will the Pirates be able to win a game or two? They are 3-12 against the Cubs this season.
The Pirates are 77-78. Although missing the playoffs is a disappointment, finishing the year with a .500 record would end the season on a more positive note. That being said, here are some key matchups for this series against the Cubs.
Pirates offense vs Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks has been fantastic this year. Over 179 innings pitched, Hendricks has an ERA of 2.06. That is best in the majors. He has struck out 161 batters opposed to walking just 43. He is 15-8.
To say that Kyle Hendricks has dominated the Pirates this year would be an enormous understatement. In two winning starts, Hendricks has given up just one run over 13 innings, striking out 16, walking one.
The thing that makes Hendricks so good is not an overpowering fastball or a sweeping breaking ball. He has command of all pitches. His fastball only sits in the low 90s. His changeup is the key to his success. It is elite as batters swing and miss at the pitch 23.8% of the time. That’s the highest percentage of all of his pitches.
So how can the Pirates beat him? If they are too aggressive, Hendricks may end up throwing a 70 pitch shutout. If they are too conservative, Hendricks would paint the corners for days and strike out 10. The Pirates will need to wait for specific pitches and pounce on mistakes. Hendricks is great but he’s not perfect. There will be some pitches to hit. The Pirates must take advantage of the mistakes because there may not be many.
Pirates offense vs Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta has put together another great season after his historic season last year. He is 18-7 with a 2.85 ERA. He has 186 strikeouts and 74 walks in 192.1 innings pitched. Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Kyle Hendricks will all be in the running for the Cy Young award at season’s end.
Surprisingly, Jake Arrieta has not dominated the Pirates like one would think. In five starts, he is 3-1 with a 3.78 ERA. In five starts last year, Arrieta’s ERA against the Pirates was 0.75.
One small yet satisfying reason for this years success against Jake Arrieta has been Josh Bell. In only four at bats, Bell has walked twice, singled and homered. Andrew McCutchen also has success in his career against Arrieta batting .317 over 47 at bats. His 13 hits are the most Arrieta has given up to a hitter.
The Pirates showed they can handle Arrieta by being patient. It is hard to score runs against Arrieta so when opportunities arise, they must be taken advantage of. Runs must be scored in bunches against the guy because he is so good at making adjustments in game and shutting you down even if you’ve had earlier success.
Pirates pitching vs Cubs offense
Chad Kuhl, Ryan Vogelsong, Jameson Taillon, and Ivan Nova are all scheduled to face the Cubs this week. Kuhl’s ERA against Chicago this year is 8.59. Vogelsong 6.48. Taillon 9.00. Nova has been lucky enough to not face the Cubs yet.
The Cubs have mashed against the Pirates this year averaging over six runs a game in 15 games. That is not a terribly small sample size in terms of team play. The Cubs have truly feasted on Pirates pitching this year. Kris Bryant is batting .358 with four home runs. Anthony Rizzo is batting .450 with six home runs. Do I even have to go on?
I have no idea how the Pirates can slow down this offense. I really don’t. Let’s hope they find a way. If not, the Pirates will finish the year under .500 for the first time in four years.
Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
