The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four straight games at Miller Park and will look to continue that success in this upcoming three game series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
After losing 13 of 15 games and all but crushing playoff hopes, the PIttsburgh Pirates have won four of their last five and find themselves 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with 13 games left to play.
It is still extremely unlikely that the Pirates will make the playoffs, but it isn’t impossible. In 2007, Clint Hurdle‘s Colorado Rockies were five games back of the Wild Card with 13 games to go. They won 12 of their last 13 and snuck into a tiebreaker game and eventually made it to the World Series.
In 2011, Sean Rodriguez‘s Tampa Bay Rays were four games out of the Wild Card with 12 games left to play. They won eight of those games including the final five to sneak in the playoffs.
The final 13 games will be no simple task for the Pirates. After these three games in Milwaukee, the team will face the Nationals and Cubs at home before finishing the season in St. Louis.
But before facing off against the big dogs, the Pirates must first take care of business against the Brewers at Miller Park. Here are some key matchups.
Pirate Offense vs Matt Garza
Garza has had sort of a bounce back season after a horrible 2015 when his ERA was north of 5.50. In 17 starts, he is 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He has 64 strikeouts compared to 33 walks. Matt Garza has been a middle of the road starting pitcher for his entire career.
In three starts against the Pirates this year, Matt Garza is 1-2 with a 2.93 ERA. He’s given up 12 runs in 15.1 innings though only five of those runs are earned. The book on Garza is simple. Be patient and wait for your pitch rather than chasing his. Garza has quite the temper and has a tendency to let his emotions get the best of him. If that is the case, he often implodes. As an opposing fan, it is a ton of fun to watch.
Gregory Polanco and Matt Joyce have both enjoyed success off of Garza going 4-10 with a home run each. Andrew McCutchen is 5-21 against Garza with a home run and five walks.
If the Pirates are able to rough up Garza tonight, it will do wonders in getting a win and setting the tone for the rest of the series.
Chad Kuhl vs Brewers Offense
As we know, Kuhl has been pretty solid for the Pirates in his rookie season. He is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA, 39 strikeouts, and 16 walks. His 4.14 FIP suggests that his current play is sustainable. This will be his second start against Milwaukee.
On August 25, his first start against the Brewers, Kuhl pitched 6.1 innings while giving up two earned runs. The Pirates won that game 3-2.
Kuhl will be opposing Jimmy Nelson so a productive start is paramount as Nelson has had the Pirates number in the past. Although his ERA is a at 4.80 against the Pirates this year, Nelson is 5-2 with a 3.16 ERA in his career against Pittsburgh.
If Kuhl can go six or so innings while giving up less than three runs, the Pirates should be in good shape to win.
Pirates Pitching vs Hernan Perez
Perez has killed the Pirates this year slashing .300/.327/.560 in 52 plate appearances. He has three home runs, two doubles, and a triple in those at bats. Yes, all three of those home runs are against Jameson Taillon but he has still done damage. On top of that, Perez has robbed the Pirates in the field with many excellent play at third base and in the outfield.
The Brewers lineup isn’t what it once was, but they have many young players such as Perez give the team hope for the future.
For this series, the Pirates will have to be careful with Perez. He is a catalyst for that offense and often gets the ball rolling. Containing him would be a huge plus for this series.
I don’t want to provide false hope, BUT if the Pirates can come out this series three or so games out of the Wild Card, you never know.
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