The Pittsburgh Pirates are 5-11 against the NL Central this year. They will get their first shot at the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend.
Not much has been going right for the Pirates in 2017. At 12-16, it could be seen as a positive that the team has been able to win so many games. Hitters can’t hit. Fielders can’t field. The pitching has had it’s moments, but altogether has been inconsistent. Key players are not with the team. Injuries are starting to catch up. The Brewers have won three of their last four games. The Pirates have lost four of five. This should be a fun weekend. Here are the key matchups.
Pirate hitters vs Jimmy Nelson
Prior to the 2016 season, Nelson had great success against the Pirates. In six starts, he gave up ten earned runs on 25 hits over 36.1 innings pitched good for an ERA of 2.48. He struck out 35 batters and walked just 11. Last year was a different story. In four starts, Nelson gave up 20 hits and 12 earned runs over 20 innings good for an ERA of 5.40. He struck 11 and walked 15.
What made the Pirates so successful against Nelson last year was the ability to not chase pitches out of the zone. Anytime a team walks more than they strike out against a pitcher, they have their number. Andrew McCutchen has done well against Nelson in his career going 6-18 with a home run and two doubles. Josh Harrison is also 6-18 against the 27 year-old. Other than that, nobody else has really faired well against Nelson. Gregory Polanco is 5-22. Francisco Cervelli is 3-13. Jordy Mercer is 2-17.
Nelson started the year hot only giving up one run apiece in his first two starts. Over his last three starts, the right-hander has been terrible giving up 15 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has given up 25 hits and eight walks while only striking out ten batters. The Pirates will have a nice opportunity to add to Nelson’s inconsistencies and score some runs. On the other hand, Nelson may be just as excited to face this lineup.
Tyler Glasnow vs Brewer hitters
Glasnow had his best start as a major league pitcher in his last outing against the Cincinnati Reds. Over six innings pitched, a career high, Glasnow gave up three runs on six hits and four walks. He struck out four. What made his start so impressive was the ability to get over an abysmal first inning. Glasnow started the game with two walks, a three run home run, and another walk. After that he was excellent.
Sunday afternoon, Glasnow will his first career start against the Brewers. No Brewer hitter has faced him. The question is, which Glasnow will we get to see Sunday? There are basically two versions of him. Version one is guy who walks everybody and can’t sniff the strike zone. This guy gets down on himself and tries to aim his pitches rather than just trusting them. This guy has a slower fastball and gets hit hard when pitches are in the zone. He is anxious. He is prone to meltdowns and throws many many pitches.
Version two has a quite a different demeanor about himself. He trusts his stuff. He throws strikes. This version of Glasnow attacks the hitters. He has command of all three pitches. He is downright nasty. Sometimes he strikes out the side in order on just 11 pitches. I’ve only seen this version of Tyler Glasnow once and that was in his last start. Perhaps he just got tired of being awful. Whatever the case may be, it will be interesting to see what version of Tyler Glasnow the Pirates get come Sunday afternoon.
Pirate pitchers vs Eric Thames
As most of you may have heard, Thames has been an absolute monster this year. In 27 games, Thames is hitting .323/.444/.740 with a National League leading 11 home runs. He has struck out 25 times this year but has walked 20. Great plate discipline combined with a short yet powerful stroke has put Thames on the map this year. He has been the best offseason free agent pickup of the year thus far.
The Pirates may have caught Thames at the right time as he has cooled off a bit over the past six games. In that span, he is 4-23 with a double. For the Pirates sake, it may be smart to go right at Thames. The peripherals suggest that Thames can sustain success this year but it would be almost impossible for him to duplicate his fantastic month of April over a full season.
Thames has pulled the ball 54.9% of the time this season. He has generated hard contact 50.7% of the time. Pirates pitchers may be best served to live on the outer third of the plate with the occasional fast ball up and in. If they can neutralize Thames at the plate, it will be much easier for Pirate pitching to navigate through the remainder of this Brewers lineup.
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