Pittsburgh Pirates’ Juan Nicasio Already Returning to Form

When the Pittsburgh Pirates signed Juan Nicasio, they did so with the intention of having the right-handed pitcher bolster their bullpen. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they caught lightning in a bottle with Juan Nicasio.

Much like other storms, that lightning passed.

Due to injuries and a strong spring in which Nicasio failed to give up a run, the free agent signee began the season in the starting rotation. 

While Nicasio wasn’t new to the starting role, he’s had his success in the majors as a reliever. A stellar 2015 in the bullpen with the Los Angeles Dodgers led to the Pirates bringing Nicassio to the right coast. The 2015 season saw Nicasio appear in 53 games and average 10.03 K/9. Nicasio also induced ground balls at a 43.3 percent clip last season, a trait most Pirate relievers share. 

The 2016 season has left Nicasio struggling to find his 2015 self. However, much of this can be contributed to starting the season in the rotation and not in the bullpen. After a brief stint on the restricted list, Nicasio has returned to the Pirates in the form of a reliever and in his two appearances since returning, he has looked superb. 

Let’s take a look at how Nicasio can continue to have success and boost a struggling bullpen:

Using pitches effectively 

As a starter, Nicasio failed to throw more than seven innings in a single outing this season. 

As a reliever, Nicasio will now be able to do away with pacing himself and put it all out there each inning and appearance. 

With the Dodgers, Nicasio averaged 95 mph on his fastball, 86.2 mph on his slider, and 86.8 mph on his change up. Compare those numbers to this year at 93.3, 85.9, and 87.3 respectively. While the minor differences might not seem like much, having a slider the same speed as his change up allows Nicasio to be more deceptive with his pitches. 

In his two relief outings after his return, Nicasio’s average velocity has improved with both his slider and change up averaging 87 and 88.5, respectively. With throwing in a more condensed outing such as those as a reliever, Nicasio’s velocity will continue to creep up to where it was last season proving beneficial when it’s necessary to get out of a jam. 

Using the defense 

At his strongest with the Dodgers, Nicasio was not afraid to use the defense while he was on the mound. That is apparent in his ability to get a ground ball 43.3 percent of the time in his appearances in Dodger blue while his fly ball percentage always at 31.8. 

So far in black and gold, Nicasio’s ground ball percentage is at 39.9 percent while his fly ball percentage is a staggering 39.4 percent. 

The influx in fly balls explains why Nicasio’s home run/fly ball percentage is at 15.8 percent compared to last season’s two percent. 

Also up from last year is the amount of hard hit balls Nicasio gives up. Last season his hard hit ball percentage was 23.5 compared to this year’s 25.3. While opposing hitters are hitting Nicasio harder, they are also hitting him more softly apparent in his 20.7 soft hit ball percentage this season compared to 16.7 last season. 

His two recent relief outings are perfect examples of using the defense. Nicasio failed to strikeout anyone in either game yet only yielded one hit in a combined four innings of work. In his outing June 26th, Nicasio induced a line out and two fly outs while in his outing June 27th, he went three innings and allowed only one hit while walking two. 

When Nicasio uses the one character trait each of Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers have and induces ground balls good things happen. 

Avoiding the middle of the plate

Velocity doesn’t matter if the pitch isn’t located well. Nicasio and the other Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are better served avoiding the middle of the plate.

Heat maps for Nicasio’s pitch locations show how effective/ineffective he can be.

The first heat map is of his 2015 season with the Dodgers.

As you can see, Nicasio lived fairly dangerously but managed to escape much of the danger throwing down the middle.

Next is the heat map for 2016 while a member of the starting rotation.

Nicasio did not miss the middle of the zone much as a starter and this map illustrates as much. Living in the heart of the zone at the Major League level is a recipe for disaster especially with a fastball averaging 93 mph.

While only having two relief appearances after returning from the restricted list. Nicasio’s heat map of his two relief outings illustrates the success a pitcher has when avoiding the heart of the plate and middle of the zone.

With each outing those maps will change, however, if Nicasio wants to stay successful and return to the form he showed in 2015 he is better off working outside of the zone and in instead of inside the zone and out.

Nicasio has the potential to be the next solid Pirates reliever to boost the team down the stretch similar to what Joakim Soria and Antonio Bastardo did last season. All Nicasio needs to do is let his defense do the work, avoid the middle of the zone, and pitch effectively using his repertoire and things will be quite right for the right-hander and the Pittsburgh Pirates.