Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman John Jaso has been in a prolonged and agonizing decline.
After an April that saw him slash .316/.389/456, Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman John Jaso has been in steady decline.
Perhaps decline isn’t the right word to describe Jaso at the plate since the season’s opening stanza.
What followed April was a drop in production that could be labelled as precipitous at best, brazen at worst. After the excellent start to his season, Jaso’s slash now sits at .265/.341/.378. His OPS is a far cry from his previous year’s .380 rate.
If we peer into some of the numbers behind his decline, we can start to identify the factors causing it.
.266
We start by acknowledging the fact that Jaso’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for June 1st through July 24th rests at .266, or 34 points below the accepted average of .300. This has resulted in a .213/.304/.295 triple-slash during that time frame.
While some of this is certainly beyond Jaso’s control, his inability to square up on balls is to blame as well. In the month of June, Jaso had a ‘hard-hit’ percentage of just 25 percent as per FanGraphs. He fared better in July with a 33.2 percent hard-hit rate, but the yo-yo type tendencies in summer’s opening months is nothing new to Jaso.
In June of 2014, Jaso made hard contact 34.1 percent of the time. His 2013 June saw a rate of 23.7. Jaso has always struggled a bit to find consistency, and his injury history may be to blame.
300
300 plate appearances seems to be a not-so-magical number for Jaso. Save for his 2010 year in Tampa – where he garnered Rookie of the Year votes – and his lone year in Seattle, Jaso’s production seems to take a nosedive when reaching 300 PAs or more.
Some of, if not much of, this is bound to be related to injury, but in seasons where Jaso has had 300+ PAs, his on-base percentage is below .350. Is it fair to wonder if Jaso flat out falters in the middle summer months? It may very well be. For every August in his career, Jaso’s hard-hit percentage is below 26 percent. When coupled with his figures in June and July, Jaso may tire out during the summer months. This is obviously bad news for the 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates, who have clawed their way back into contention.
13.46
High summer temperatures aren’t the only heat Jaso is dealing with.
We have previously documented how Jaso needs to stay in hitter’s counts to be successful. Without a natural battle back ability, this is more important for Jaso than other Pittsburgh Pirates hitters.
In April and May combined, Jaso saw 150 pitches on 2-strike counts.
In June and July, Jaso has already seen 150 pitches on 2-strike counts.
Pitchers now rely on the four seam fastball to get Jaso out. In the season’s first two months, Jaso saw 47 pitches with straight heat. In June and July-to-date, he has already seen 52 such pitches. However, Jaso is whiffing on these pitches at a 13.46 percent rate. This is a more than triple his early-season rate of 4.25 percent. By its own merits, this wouldn’t be too alarming, ut when coupled with a large increase in strike zone percentage (8.51 percent in Apr/May versus 17.31 percent in June/July), it becomes clear that Jaso is seeing more hittable pitches.
And he is flat out missing them. Jaso carried a good walk rate in June – 12.1 percent – but July has seen that rate drop to 5.5. Pitchers are thus much more comfortable challenging Jaso, as they have been winning that challenge more often than not.
John Jaso’s summer month tendencies to miss hittable pitches while losing the ability to get on base takes away that which the PIttsburgh Pirates relied upon him for. It will be up to Jaso to prove that his summer flings with poor production can be put to rest.
Featured Photo Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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