Do the Pittsburgh Pirates have the right mix of “pitch to contact” hurlers and strikeout pitchers to maximize their pitching efficiency?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the most aggressive teams when it comes to pitching inside and attacking hitters. Their goal as an organization seems to be to make the opposing hitter as uncomfortable as possible.
Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole are both above-average strikeout pitchers. Cole has a career SO/9 of 8.5 and Liriano bests that with a 9.3 figure.
Outside of those two, the Pirates’ 2016 pitching staff is mostly made up of “pitch to contact” style pitchers. This obviously makes sense given the Pirates approach to optimal defensive alignments.
Strikeouts have long been seen as the sexy way to get outs, but they also raise pitch counts and potentially can lead to shorter outings, leading to more work for the bullpen. For a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates, the goal should be to be as efficient as possible when getting outs. To that measure, the most obvious way to look at pitching efficiency is the amount of pitches it takes for the pitchers to obtain outs.
You don’t hear many people discussing pitches per out (hereafter referredto as PPO) in regards to the worth of starting pitchers, but for a team that seems to be taking a defense-first mentality into the 2016 season, it’s an avenue the team should definitely be looking at.
Yesterday the Pirates announced their starting rotation for the beginning of the season and while the top three of Cole, Liriano, Jon Niese, and Jeff Locke aren’t a surprise, the addition of Juan Nicasio over Ryan Vogelsong did turn some heads. Nicasio had a dominant spring and seemed to be a strikeout machine as he fanned 24 batters in 15 innings, which over a full season would be a 14.4 SO/9. Nicasio’s career rate is 7.4, so it’s very unlikely he will double his SO/9 in 2016.
Once you get through Liriano and Cole, the Pirates’ rotation is not full of strikeout machines based on career numbers. Locke boasts a surprising career 6.6 SO/9 and Niese has a 7.0 rating. Since none of the bottom three pitchers are known as strikeout pitchers (strong spring aside, the jury is still out on Nicasio), are they efficient at getting outs?
Pitches per out correlated by WHIP
Nicasio in 2015 was the least efficient of the Pirates’ starting pitchers as it took him 6.21 pitches per out. Not coincidentally, he also had the highest WHIP of this group (though that is skewed by his pitching far fewer innings.) He was also a reliever for the bulk of 2015 so efficiency likely wasn’t as important for him.
As is well known, Vogelsong struggled in 2015, and his PPO and WHIP show just that. Having walked 3.9 batters per nine innings last season, the veteran struggled with inefficiency all year. This along may justify putting him in the bullpen where this inefficiency can be better masked.
Behind him was Locke as he took 5.51 PPO. Jeff Locke is the most interesting of the Pirates’ pitchers as he’s been plagued with inefficiency during his career with the Pirates and 2015 was no different. People have always noted Locke struggles with “putting batters away.” It seems that for a pitch to contact guy, he does not seem to get outs with any form of skillfulness.
The next pitcher on our list is Liriano at 5.34 PPO. This is not surprising as Liriano has never been an efficient starting pitcher. He is often effectively wild, which is why he can rack up both strikeouts and a high number of walks at various times. I am not overly worried about Liriano because when you have the kind of pure stuff he has, you don’t really need to pitch to contact. He’s a strikeout pitcher and that’s what he should continue to be.
Cole is the second most efficient starting pitcher with a 5.19 PPO, which is fairly solid and similar to Liriano. In reality, the Pirates have no need for Cole to pitch to contact as he is turning into more of a strikeout pitcher.
Surprisingly, the best pitcher on staff in terms of productively getting outs is Jon Niese at 5.11 PPO. This may come as a surprise to a lot of people. It probably should not.
Niese has always been an above-average ground ball pitcher with a career rate of 50 percent. Niese generally pitches to contact and seems to excel at it, which is probably the why the Pirates traded for him in the first place.
How can the Pittsburgh Pirates take advantage of pitches per out? This applies more to the contact guys in the rotation, but can be beneficial for Cole and Liriano as well. The Pirates need to better attack hitters in-zone and let hitters put the ball in play. The Pirates shift as much as any team in baseball and if the starting pitchers allow hitters to let the fielders do their job, the entire team benefits. The infielders stay sharper and the pitchers can go deeper into ballgames, which obviously allows for a well rested bullpen.
Unsurprisingly, the game’s best pitchers seem to generally be more effective at quickly getting outs. Looking at the top five NL Cy Young finishers from 2015, we see some amazing figures.
CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW THE PIRATES STARTERS COMPARE TO THE NL’s BEST…
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