Zach Greinke (4.85), Clayton Kershaw (4.86) and Max Scherzer (4.90) all had PPO under five and Jake Arrieta was almost exactly at five (5.01). This may not seem like a huge variation but over the course of 30+ starts, one extra pitch per at-bat really adds up.
The interesting thing is the four pitchers mentioned are all known as strikeout guys and they absolutely are that. Yet despite strikeouts leading to high pitch counts, they all averaged more innings per game than any of the Pirates’ starters.
[table id=114 /]Kershaw was a beast in 2015 as he averaged seven innings per start. Cole was the closest in the Pirates’ rotation as he averaged 6.5 innings per start. Greinke, Scherzer, and Arrieta all were closer to seven innings per start than six. Which completely alters the way managers have to use bullpens in late game situations.
Locke was easily the biggest offender for the Pirates in 2015 as he averaged a little over five innings per start. Niese was the least efficient for the Mets as he lasted only 5.3 innings per start.
The bottom third of the Pirates’ rotation simply must last longer into games in 2016 otherwise the bullpen will be taxed. Although Neal Huntington built the bullpen specifically in mind to allow for “soft spots” in the rotation, the team simply cannot rely on only two starting pitchers going six innings into the game. Locke, Niese and Nicasio need to at least come closer to lasting six innings per start for the bullpen not to be overtaxed.
It’s no coincidence that the pitchers with the lower PPO seem to last longer. Niese seems to be an outlier as his PPO was fairly low, but he still didn’t seem to last late into ballgames, so you can likely chalk that up to a weird statistical anomaly of some degree.
The Pittsburgh Pirates simply put need their pitchers to gets out at a more efficient rate and last slightly later into ballgames. This coupled with their new emphasis on defense should help the Pirates compete in a wickedly talented National League Central.
Pirates Breakdown editor Jason Rollison contributed to the research used in this piece.
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