Reports are circulating that the Texas Rangers are shopping Derek Holland. Could the Pittsburgh Pirates be a good landing spot for the southpaw?
MLB Trade Rumors (and other outlets) is reporting that the Texas Rangers have informed lefty starter Derek Holland that he is not in their plans for 2017. The club could exercise his option for next season and then flip him to another team. With the starting pitching market looking thinner than usual this offseason, the Pirates should be doing their homework on the 30 year old starter.
Teams have five days after the World Series ends to exercise options on their players, which is an interesting aspect of Holland’s situation. The Rangers could exercise the option on Holland and have a deal in place to trade him to another team. Holland’s option for 2017 calls for a $11 million contract (as opposed to the $1.5 million buyout if it’s not picked up). The Rangers could probably net a decent prospect in return if they elected to cover the majority of Holland’s contract in any deal.
sources say the #rangers would be open to trading derek holland this offseason. team has $11M option for 2017: https://t.co/T9qEBcbSUO
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) October 31, 2016
The case for Holland
So why should the Pirates try to work out a trade for Holland? As mentioned above, the starting pitching market is very thin this winter. Ivan Nova‘s camp believes that he can command a contract somewhere around five years and $70 million, which puts him firmly outside what the Pirates typically are willing to spend on starting pitching. Because of the type of money that will be thrown around this winter, the Pirates would be better off looking to bolster their rotation via a trade.
Another reason that the Pirates should consider working out a deal for Holland is that their rotation is currently very right handed heavy. Other than Steven Brault, who had a respectable debut in 2016, and Jeff Locke (who should not be part of the team moving forward), they do not have any lefties vying for a rotation spot. The addition of Holland would not only add a lefty to break up all of the right handed pitchers, but he would bring a veteran presence as well.
The Pirates also opened up some of their 2017 budget after they traded Francisco Liriano to the Toronto Blue Jays. Now that Toronto has assumed the $13 million due to Liriano in 2017, the Pirates could easily afford to take on Holland’s $11 million.
An added bonus is that Holland’s contract has a second option for 2018, so if the gamble works and he pitches well, they have him under contract the following year at $11.5 million. If he continues to falter, they can exercise the $1 million buyout and move on from him.
Finally, as the Pirates and their fans saw in 2016, more often than not a baseball season does not unfold in the idyllic fashion envisioned before the season starts. Liriano struggled mightily before being shipped north of the border, Gerrit Cole took a step back and had a hard time staying on the field, and uber prospect Tyler Glasnow had serious control issues at Indianapolis and in Pittsburgh. Holland represents a fairly cheap and low risk option.
The case against Holland
Obviously with the news that the Rangers are looking to move on from Holland, they must have their reasons for ending this relationship.
Holland’s best two seasons were 2011 (16-5, 3.95) and 2013 (10-9, 3.42), while in the other seasons his ERA has typically been well over 4.50. His K/9 has also been trending in the wrong direction. Since 2013, his K/9 have been 7.99, 6.08, 6.29 before finishing 2016 at 5.62. So it’s hard to believe that a 30 year old pitcher is suddenly going to start striking out a ton of hitters.
One reason that his strikeouts have been going down can probably be attributed to the loss in velocity that he has experienced in recent years. According to the PITCHf/x data on his fangraphs.com page, Holland’s fastball velocity was 94.1 in 2011. Since 2013, Holland has seen his fastball go from 93.4 to just 90.7 last season. In that same period, his slider velocity has also decreased dramatically (82.6 in 2013, 79.9 in 2016). [perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Because of the type of money that will be thrown around this winter, the Pirates would be better off looking to bolster their rotation via a trade.[/perfectpullquote] Holland has also dealt with his share of injuries throughout his career. He made 22 starts in 2016, but he spent time on the disabled list due to inflammation in his left shoulder. It’s concerning that both last season and 2015 saw Holland miss time due to issues with his shoulder, but that is part of the game unfortunately.
What should the Pirates do?
I think that the Pirates should try to work out a deal for Holland. He is just 30 years old and perhaps a change of scenery will be good for him.
After a subpar winter following the 2015 season, the Pirates cannot take the same approach this year. They need to bolster the rotation given the question marks surrounding some of the players who occupied those spots last year. While they did receive Drew Hutchison in the Liriano deal, his performance as a Pirate was far from what fans hoped to see. They need other options in case some of the issues from last season pop up again.
The Rangers cannot expect to receive a top tier prospect for Holland, even if they pick up the majority of his contract. I could see someone outside of the team’s top 20 or 25 prospects going back to Texas. If the Pirates would assume the entire contract, which they certainly should have the budget for, the then the player going back should be outside of the team’s top 30.
Holland is a low risk option, and given how shallow the pitching market will be this winter, it would be wise for the Pirates to make a move sooner rather than later.
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