Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – Another Winning Week?

Welcome back to the Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine where we analyze the statistics, results and trends to make specific predictions about Pirate performances for the upcoming week.

Last week we made four predictions and all four were correct.  That makes two weeks in a row where the Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine was a perfect 4 for 4.

The Pirates, who spent the last seven days on the road, played eight games thanks to a double-header at Cincinnati on Saturday.  They managed to post a 5-3 record for the week by splitting a four game series with Philadelphia, then taking 3 of 4 in Cincinnati.  The offense came alive, scoring an average of 6.75 runs per game including a 15 run barrage against the Phillies.  It was a tantalizing view of the potential of this Pirates team.  This offensive outpouring led to some accurate predictions on our part.

Last Week’s Predictions:

We expected to see effective spot-starts from recent call ups:  In addition to regular playing time for Josh Bell and Adam Frazier, we expected Alen Hanson, Pedro Florimon and / or Jason Rogers to be given a start during the week.  Sure enough, Hanson started the Sept. 17 game at second against the Reds and Florimon started the evening game of the double header on Sept. 18, also at second.  Hanson was on base three times in his start and Florimon had a two-RBI triple in his.  Both players showed their speed on the basepaths and proved they could contribute to a big league club. 

We said the Pirates would win or split the Philadelphia series:  Basically, we said the Pirates would not lose this series.  It was close, but the Pirates pulled out two wins to split the series in Philadelphia.  The last game was cathartic for the Pirates offense, as they unleashed their frustrations in an eight-run, ninth inning hitting display.

We predicted that Joey Votto would devastate Pirates pitching:  Votto started the series fifth in the NL in batting average and ended the series tied for 4^th.  We said he would get on base five times and he was on base eight times.  He saved his devastation for the last game of the series, where he had four hits and a walk.  Votto is clearly an elite hitter and continues to punish the Pirates every time they meet.

We thought the Pirates would get their revenge on Brandon Finnegan:  The Reds’ Finnegan pitched well against the Pirates in their Sept.11^th game, going five innings without yielding an earned run.  The Pirates have hit left-handed pitching well all season, so we thought this was an excursion.  We expected the Pirates to get back at Finnegan in their Sept. 17 matchup by scoring at least three runs and knocking the lefty out of the game early.  Sure enough, the Pirates hung five runs on Finnegan before the third inning was over (only two were earned).

Overall, we went 4 for 4 with our predictions for the second straight week.  Making four predictions per week is working out well for us so we are going to go with that number again this week.

Predictions for the week of September 19^th:

This week (Sept 19-25), the Pirates are on the road for three games at the Milwaukee Brewers, then return home for a tough three game series against the NL East leading Washington Nationals.  The opposing starting pitching is not clear as both of their opponents are dealing with injury issues.   With Washington as a shoo-in to win the NL East, they may decide to rest their best arms for the Pittsburgh series.   This makes for more optimistic expectations for the week ahead.

Another week of above average run production:  The offense appears to be making up for missed time and missed opportunities.  Things are clicking right now, with both old and new pieces of the lineup producing at opportune moments.  Given this, we expect another week where the Bucs score more than their season average of 4.5 runs per game.

The Pirates will win the Washington Series:  What??!!  Stephen Strasburg is out indefinitely and the Pirates will probably not see Max Scherzer.  Combine this with the fact that the Pirates will do whatever it takes to prevent the Nationals from clinching the NL East while in Pittsburgh and there is a good chance that they will take at least two out of three from the Nationals.

The offense will knock Gio Gonzalez around:  As part of the aforementioned series win, the Pirates will score at least three runs early on the Nationals left hander.  It’s a familiar refrain this year – Pirates see a left handed starter – Pirates score early.  Now, those games don’t always finish the way we want them to, but we aren’t predicting the end of the game, only the start.

Sean Rodriguez cool down:  Rodriguez has been on fire at the plate in recent weeks.  He is sporting a ten game hitting streak, bashing five home runs during that stretch.  As we’ve chronicled before, Rodriguez is a streaky player.  He has good streaks, but they are always followed by bad streaks.  In the next six games, we expect Rodriguez to go without a hit in at least two of them.

That’s our 4 predictions for the week ahead in Pittsburgh Pirates baseball.  We are looking to extend our streak to 12 in a row next week.  Be sure to check back next week to see if we did.