Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – California Dreamin’

Here we are at Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions once again – a weekly article in which we make predictions about five Pirates performances in the upcoming week.  We also take a look back at the previous week’s predictions to see how each panned out.

The Pittsburgh Pirates played three disappointing games on the road and three semi-encouraging games at home last week.  First, they lost two of three in Atlanta to the lowly Braves, getting outhit 30-14.  Also we got to witness “Jaso-gate” (did he just not run or did he really think that was a foul ball?).  Then they returned to PNC Park and took two of three from the Cincinnati Reds.

From that palate of possibilities, we made five predictions:

We predicted Gerrit Cole would win the opener at Atlanta:  Cole was coming off his first complete game and, although we didn’t expect a repeat performance, we knew he would collect the W.  He did just that, going 5 innings, allowing only one earned run.  Unfortunately, he didn’t follow that up in his next start against the Reds.  You see, Cole has been cursed, and will not beat Cincinnati again until he apologizes to Joey Votto for striking him out, temporarily driving him insane, and eventually getting him ejected back on May 6, 2015.

We expected Jeff Locke or Ryan Vogelsong to crater:  When they were both announced as starting pitchers in the Atlanta series, a collective groan went up from Pirates fans everywhere.  Jeff Locke did tank in predictable fashion, letting a 4-0 lead dwindle to 4-3 by the end of the 4^th inning.  Clint Hurdle stuck with Locke in the 5^th, giving him just enough time to give up the lead en route to an 8-4 loss, making our prediction frustratingly correct.  On a more positive note, we were all very happy to see Vogelsong back in action after getting hit by a pitch in the face.  We just weren’t excited to see him as a starter.   However, he pitched a gem – 6 innings and only one earned run.  Nice job Ryan!

We thought the Pirates would sweep the Reds:  We were wrong – they won the first two games but lost the finale.  Billy Hamilton somehow becomes a triple crown threat when he plays the Pirates, going 4 for 13 with two walks and 5 stolen bases in the series.

We foresaw five more strikeouts for Cutch:  However, we didn’t expect Hurdle to sit Cutch for three straight games.  He did strike out twice in the Cincinnati series (and also got two hits and three base-on-balls).  He has been averaging a little over one strikeout per game this season and has nine Ks in his last nine games.  Therefore, it is not a stretch to think he would have struck out three more times had he played in the Atlanta series.  This one will have to go into the “never got a chance to find out” column.

We predicted a great week for Mark Melancon:  The former Pittsburgh Pirates closer was traded to the Washington Nationals and we naturally assumed he would be awesome in his first week with the new club.  Seriously, it would not have surprised us if he struck out every batter he faced on three pitches.  Instead he pitched four innings, allowing only one hit, no earned runs, no walks and struck out six.  We expect he will continue to dominate while with the Nationals just as he did here in Pittsburgh.

So, for those counting at home, that’s 3 correct, 1 wrong and 1 we never got to test.

For the upcoming week (August 8-14), The Pirates face two California teams – the San Diego Padres at PNC Park and the Dodgers on the road in Los Angeles.  They face four right handed pitchers and two lefties, which bodes well for their chances to have a winning week.  So, to start off our predictions, we will focus on the games where the Pirates face LHP.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will score early on Christian Friedrich:  Leftie Friedrich is scheduled to pitch in the Aug 11 game for the Padres.   The Pirates have been beating up on LHP this season and Friedrich is sporting a 4.76 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Specifically, we expect the Pirates to score at least three runs in the first five innings.

The Pirates will score early on Rich Hill:  A day later the Pirates face another leftie in Rich Hill, formerly of the Oakland A’s and now pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Hill is a more formidable opponent with a 2.25 ERA and a 9-3 record.  But as we’ve discussed before, the Pirates hit LHP exceptionally well and will again score at least three runs in the first five innings.

Jordy Mercer will struggle in the August heat:  After hitting for a .325 average in July, Mercer has batted only .143 so far in August.  Mercer was hurt for most of last August and in 2014, he hit only .200 in the second half of August.  For some reason, this is the point in the season where Jordy seems to tire a bit.  Therefore, we expect him to hit .240 or less for the week.

Ryan Vogelsong will regress:  Pitching six innings and allowing only one earned run last week was above and beyond the call of duty for Vogelsong.  This week, assuming the Pirates don’t make a trade that displaces him from the starting rotation, he will regress to his norm, which will be at least 3 runs allowed in the first 5 innings.  This will still be still a decent outing for the 39 year-old pitcher, and may even be enough to earn him the win (although we are not predicting that).

Ivan Nova will also regress:  Nova had a great first game with the Pirates, doing what he had to do to earn the victory against the Cincinnati Reds.  However, for every game where he allows 3 ER or less, he has a game where he allows 4 ER or more.  We think that his start against the Dodgers will be the latter, where he allows at least 4 ER, however we do feel that the Pirates will still win the game against the Dodgers bullpen.

There are our predictions for this week.  Be sure to tune in next week to see how we fared.