Welcome to the Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction machine – a weekly article where we make thought-provoking predictions about the Pirates for the upcoming seven days and then look back later to see how accurate we were.
Speaking of looking back, last week was the first time the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone a whole week without winning a game. Similarly, the Prediction Machine had our worst week ever at 1 out of 5 correct prognostications. Many of the predictions were oh-so-close, coming true in spirit but not in the numbers. It felt like one of those games where you hit the ball hard every time, but always right at someone.
The Pirates started the week by losing three straight to the Cubs in Chicago, the first in heartbreaking fashion. This was followed by a three game trouncing by the Milwaukee Brewers where the Bucs were outscored 18-4. Right now the Pirates are a bunch of very good baseball players that are collectively playing pretty bad baseball. And our predictions ended up even worse…
Last Week’s Predictions:
We thought Brault versus Arrieta would play out according to script: Stephen Brault has done an admirable job as a AAA call-up, but taking on the Cubs daunting lineup against a stingy Jake Arrieta caused us to speculate that Brault would be down at least three runs when he exited the game. When Brault exited after 5 innings, the Cubs were ahead 3-1 so we were off by a run. However, the rest of the game did not go according to script, with the Pirates coming back to score 6 runs of Arrieta and the Cubs winning the game in extra innings.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] Many of the predictions were oh-so-close, coming true in spirit but not in the numbers. It felt like one of those games where you hit the ball hard every time, but always right at someone. [/perfectpullquote]We expected the Pirates Offense to be sparse in Chicago: If the Pirates scored their average runs per game, they would have totaled 14.65 runs in the three game series at Chicago. We predicted 11 or less and they ended up scoring 12. Again, we were right in spirit, but technically off by one run.
We thought Starling Marte would thrive against right handed pitching: Starling Marte has hit RHP better than lefties all year. He is swinging a hot bat right now, so for the week, we predicted he would beat his season slash line of .303/.358/.442 in at least two of those three stats. He was 9 for 26 and three of those hits were for extra bases. His slash line for the week was .346/.346/.538 making this our lone correct prediction.
We predicted that Jameson Taillon would bounce back: Coming off his worst start of the year at Milwaukee, we thought Taillon would exact some revenge on the Brewers. He pitched great, allowing only one earned run, but was the hard-luck loser in a 1-0 game where the Pirates offense was missing in action. However, our specific prediction was that he would strike out at least six batters and he struck out only four in six innings of work. Unfortunately, he was pulled after 6 innings and only 76 pitches in favor of a pinch hitter.
We expected Tony Watson to finally close on the closer role: After a few weeks of acclimation, we thought Watson would say “enough already” and start pitching lights-out again. We said no blown saves and no more than 1 earned run. Well, Watson blew the only save opportunity he had in the week, allowing a home run in the bottom of the 9th inning to Jorge Soler, which tied the game (the Cubs would go on to win in extra innings). He did not pitch again and the “Watson isn’t a closer” chatter is louder than ever. FYI, Mark Melancon has not blown a save opportunity and allowed only one earned run since being traded to the Washington Nationals.
Overall, we went 1 for 5 and are left wondering what might have been.
Predictions for the week of September 5th:
The Pittsburgh Pirates are home all week, hosting the St. Louis Cardinals for three games and then the Cincinnati Reds for a four game set. The Pirates are 8-5 against the Cardinals so far this year and are 6-5 against the Reds. They are again facing exclusively right-handed starters and will have to scrap to compete in every game. Our predictions are fewer in number and somewhat somber.
Losing record for the week: This season the Pirates have often found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They have to face righties in every game and, except for Starling Marte, it seems like the entire team is developing a huge platoon split. We expect a similarly frustrating week where they lose more games than they win.
Jung Ho Kang will return in style: Kang is coming off of the DL this week and every other time he has returned, he has initially teed off on opposing pitchers. He will probably strike out a lot, but we expect at least one extra base hit in the second half of the week.
Mercer gets on base: Every year it seems, Jordy Mercer struggles in August and turns it on in September. He starts to hit more for average, his strikeout rate drops and his walk rate goes up. His career OBP is .336 and we think he will handily beat this mark in the next week.
Harrison is on when leading off: Harrison is hitting like crazy right now, with multiple hits in 4 out of 6 games last week. We expect him to stay hot with hits in at least 4 out of 7 games this week.
Just four predictions for the week ahead in Pittsburgh Pirates baseball. Be sure to tune in next week to see how well we did.
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