Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – June 13

Welcome to the Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – a weekly feature looking ahead to the week in Pirates baseball.

Much like the Pittsburgh Pirates, we had an awful week with our previous predictions. Here’s how we did:

We thought Cervelli would use a few days off to refocus and come out of the gates strong, hitting over .400 for the week.  Instead, he was mostly injured and ended up on the DL for four to six weeks.  He was 2 for 7 in the games he played with 3 walks and one strikeout, but he did not live up to our prediction due to his injury.

We predicted that Cole Figueroa would get two hits in a spot start.  He did get the spot start at second base against the New York Mets, but went 0-for-4 with an RBI.   Not exactly what we predicted.

We thought Juan Nicasio would bounce back in his next start.  And you could easily say that he did.  In his st art against the Mets, he went five innings with one ER, seven strikeouts and two walks.  It was an incredible performance for a pitcher who many wanted to send to the bullpen.  We definitely nailed this one.

We thought John Jaso’s hitting woes would continue.  After a hot start to the week, Jaso fizzled out and ended up going 6-for-22 with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts.  We predicted he would hit not hit better than his career average of .266 and he ended up hitting .273.  That is what we call close enough.

We predicted that Neil Walker would hit two home runs in his return to PNC Park.  This one ended being way off base.  Walker never threatened to hit it out and ended up making three errors in the series.

Overall, we were 2 for 5 in our predictions last week.  Not a great start but not awful either.

For next week (June 13 through June 19), The Pittsburgh Pirates again face tough right handed pitching in two series against the Mets and the Cubs.  The Bucs start the week having lost their last five games and are probably feeling dejected.  Several starters are out of the lineup and several more are playing banged up.  Given all this, our predictions will focus on the players who can rise above and do what they do best.

Tony Watson will have a great week.

Watson had a pretty bad April, a stellar May, and a less-than-good June so far.  He’s had some bad luck in June, including giving up a home run to Albert Pujols on an eye-level pitch.  That just doesn’t happen very often.  We expect the odds to roll back in his favor and predict that he will accrue 1 ER or less in his next week of appearances.

Gregory Polanco will step up.

Polanco has been one of the most dependable hitters for the Pirates this year, but so far in June he is hitting for only a .229 average.  In the next week, against a slew of RHP, expect him to hit more like he has in April and May – at a .300 clip.

Starling Marte will use his speed to make a difference.

Given that Cervelli is out and Andrew McCutchen is striking out at a record pace, the Pirates will have to get creative to score runs.  So far in 2016, Marte has stolen a base at a rate of almost once every three games.  Expect this pace to increase to where he has 3-4 steals in the next week alone.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will win a game at New York in late innings.

So far this season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have hit .279 and slugged .453 in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings but it hasn’t generated many come-from-behind wins.  The Pirates have lost their last four extra-inning games, but overall are 10-9 in one run and extra-inning games.  They can win tight games, they just haven’t lately.  This week, they will do just that against the Mets.

Jake Arrieta will continue his dominance of the Pirates.

Sorry fans.  This is a prediction of the Pirates team as a whole.  They may find a way to beat Arrieta eventually, but it won’t be in his next start.  On June 17^th, expect Arrieta to pitch 7 innings or more with 2 ER or less.

That’s our five predictions for this week.  Check in with us next week to see how we did!