Welcome to another edition of The Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine
Welcome my friends. Welcome to the machine. The Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine that is. Here, we lay out our predictions for the upcoming week, and we also take a look back at the previous week’s predictions to see how each panned out.
Last Week’s Results
The Prediction Machine had a good week last week (July 4 through July 10), with 4 of the 5 predictions hitting the bullseye. We had a mix of positive and negative expectations and other than Jameson Tallion going on the DL, we got to see most of them play out.
We thought Niese versus Lester would be a high scoring affair. Both Jonathan Niese and Jon Lester gave up a lot of runs just as we expected, they just didn’t pitch against each other. Niese’s start was moved back a day, so Lester pitched against Chad Kuhl instead. Lester gave up 5 earned runs in only three innings of work. His mound opponent was even worse giving up 4 runs in two and a third innings. The following night, Niese yielded 5 runs in four and a third innings. We expected 8 earned runs between Niese and Lester, so no matter how you slice it we called this one correctly.
We expected Adam Frazier to come back down to Earth. After going 7 for 14 at the plate in his first eight games, we expected Frazier to cool off and hit .250 or less. As we thought, he went 1 for 10 in the last week as opposing pitchers were able to refine their pitching approach against him. Now it is up to Frazier to make adjustments of his own.
We thought Jameson Taillon would register six strikeouts in his next start. Instead, Tallon went on the DL with shoulder discomfort. Unfortunately, we will have to wait until after the All-Star break to see his killer curve ball again.
We predicted that Liriano would out pitch Arrieta for three innings. Stop the presses! Francisco Liriano did, in fact, outduel Jake Arrieta through the first three innings of their July 8th matchup. Arrieta gave up three runs in the first three innings while Liranio posted all zeros. This prediction was correct, but more importantly, the Pirates ended up winning the game 8-4.
We thought McCutchen would have at least six more strikeouts. McCutchen is on a record strikeout pace this year and last week was no exception. He registered 7 K’s over that period, making our prediction correct. However, he also started squaring up some pitches – hitting for a .333 average with two home runs. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for McCutchen.
In total, we had four correct predictions and one that we never got a chance to test.
This Week’s Predictions
For next week (July 11 through July 18), most of the Pittsburgh Pirates get a break for the All-Star game, then play three games in Washington D.C. against the Nationals. It is unclear which pitchers they will face, but they could see both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. This doesn’t give us much to work with as far as making predictions, so we will make three this week instead of five.
The Pittsburgh Pirates offense will cool down. The Pirates have scored an average of 4.7 runs per game so far this season but the Nationals pitching staff have the best ERA in baseball at 3.30. Good pitching will win out over good hitting and the Pirates will average less than 4 runs per game against the Nationals. The Pirates pitching staff has to respond and limit the Nationals to less than four runs per game if they want to win this series.
Jung Ho Kang will go deep. Kang has not hit a home run since June 24. He has been swinging at some bad pitches lately and has struck out 14 times. He’s having a tough time all around, so he will probably welcome the time off for the All-Star break. Nationals Park isn’t home run friendly, but Kang has the pop to knock it out – and he will at least once.
Sean Rodriguez will continue his hot hitting. We previously profiled how Rodriguez hits in bunches and his current hitting binge is just reaching its peak. He is 5 for 16 over his last five games with three home runs. He may cool off a bit, but should continue to hit at least at a .275 pace in the Washington series.
That’s our three predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates this week. Be sure to tune in next week and see how we did.
Featured image credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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