Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – Tough Competition

Welcome to the Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Machine – a weekly article in which we channel Nostradamus to make predictions about five Pirates performances in the upcoming week.  We also go back to last week’s predictions to see how they turned out.

Last week, the Pittsburgh Pirates hosted the San Diego Padres for three games and traveled to Los Angeles for three against the Dodgers.

The Bucs won both series and had a good week, going 4-2.  More importantly, their offense seemed to come alive, scoring an average of 6.33 runs per game (mixing in two games against left handed starters didn’t hurt).  This is a good sign that the Pirates can contend for a spot in the wild card game.

We made five predictions about last week.  So without further ado, let’s see how we did.

We expected the Pirates to score early on lefty Christian Friedrich:  The Pirates have been beating up on LHP this season and the Padres’ Friedrich had a 4.76 ERA heading into their Aug 11 matchup.  The Pirates took him to task early, scoring four runs in the first four innings, making our prediction correct.

We thought the Pirates would also score early on lefty Rich Hill:  The Pirates were scheduled to face new Dodger Rich Hill on Aug 12, but finger blisters prevented Hill from starting.  Instead they faced RHP Ross Stripling.  The Pirates went ahead and scored 3 runs in the first inning on their way to a 5-1 win.  Since we didn’t get the see the Pirates face Hill, this will go in the “didn’t get to find out” bucket.

We predicted Jordy Mercer to struggle in the August heat:  After hitting for a .325 average in July, Mercer started to cool off in August.  For some reason, this is the point in the season where Jordy hits a rough spot.  For the week, we expected him to hit for a .240 average or less.  Against the Padres and Dodgers, Mercer went 4 for 21 for a .190 average – so we were right.  However, he blasted two home runs, which helped take the edge off of his low average.

We thought Ryan Vogelsong would regress:  Since coming back from an extended stint on the DL, Vogelsong has been pitching very well.  We expected him to regress a bit in his Aug 10^th start, allowing 3 runs in the first 5 innings.  He only allowed 2 runs (neither were earned), yet the Pirates still lost the game 4-0.   Even though our prediction was incorrect, we were encouraged to see Vogelsong showing a scrappy, resilient side.

We also thought Ivan Nova would regress:  Nova had a great first game with the Pirates, doing what he had to do to earn the victory against the Cincinnati Reds.  However, he has been prone to pitching games where he allows a lot of runs via the long ball.  We predicted one of those games in his Aug 12 start against the Dodgers.  Well, he proved us wrong, allowing only one run in 5 1/3 inning.  It’s always easier to be wrong about a prediction when the Pirates win!

So, last week we had two correct, two incorrect and one we never got to test.

This Week’s Predictions

This week (week of Aug 15), the Pittsburgh Pirates play a three game series at San Francisco, then come home to host three games against the Miami Marlins.  These are two good teams fighting for a post season berth.  The Pirates will need to play very well to win both of these series.  The emphasis on this week’s predictions will therefore be the little things that help a team win games – like stealing bases and keeping the line moving on offense.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The emphasis on this week’s predictions will be the little things that help a team win games – like stealing bases and keeping the line moving on offense.[/perfectpullquote]

Nice to meet you Matt Moore:  The Pirates have not faced Matt Moore before, but they have feasted on left handed pitching this season, especially recently.  Therefore, we expect the Pirates to hit well.  Instead of predicting a number of runs, we expect Moore to allow over 1.5 WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) as the Pirates keep the line moving against him.

Give me Nova-Cain:  When Ivan Nova faces off against Matt Cain, there will be a lot of offense on both sides.  With a combined ERA of over 10, these two starting pitchers will make for an entertaining game.  By the time both starters exit the game, we expect to see at least six combined runs on the scoreboard.

Buster Posey shutdown: Posey has an incredible 46% caught-stealing percentage as a catcher, good for tops in the National League.  Of course, this has just as much to do with his battery mates as it does with him, but if they make a mistake, he has the arm to bail them out.   Still, the Pirates top of the order will try to run on him.  We predict either Starling Marte or Josh Harrison will be gunned down by Posey in the series.

Speed Plays against Miami:  Whereas Buster Posey is an elite stopper of the opponent’s running game, J.T. Realmuto is merely very good in this category.  Also, he’s probably due to rest one of the games against the Pirates and his replacement, Jeff Mathis, isn’t nearly as good at throwing out base runners.  Expect the Pirates to steal at least three bases in the Miami series.

Kuhl Continues to Win:  The Pirates have done nothing but win when Chad Kuhl starts.  His performance so far is reminiscent of J.A. Happ from the end of last season.  This week he is scheduled to face David Phelps, a relief pitcher pressed into service as a starter.  It will be a battle of talented inexperience.  It may not be pretty, but the Pirates will get a W in this game.

That’s our five predictions for this week in Pittsburgh Pirates baseball.  Be sure to tune in next week to see how we fared.

 

Featured Photo Credit: Gina Riley