Our individual Pittsburgh Pirates previews continue today with right-handed starting pitcher Trevor Williams. Can he translate a solid season into a spectacular one?
In a largely forgettable season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Trevor Williams was one of a few bright spots. Don’t let his 4.07 ERA fool you, Williams at least gave the Pirates a chance to win in almost every start that he made last season.
Williams made the 2017 Opening Day roster but as a long reliever. Though he lost out on the final rotation spot to Tyler Glasnow, it only took a month for Williams to earn time as a starter because of Glasnows’ ineffectiveness.
Because of improvements made throughout last season, Williams seized the opportunity and figures to be an important arm in the Pirates’ 2018 rotation.
Location pivotal to turnaround
Aside from his entertaining podcast and fire tweets, Williams is also a solid, improving pitcher. Though the Pirates only seemed to play worse as the 2017 season got older, Williams only improved each month.
After posting a 7.98 ERA in his first seven appearances of the season, only one of which was a start, something changed for Williams. Opposing hitters posted a .319 batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) against Williams. The struggles through those 14.2 innings were no coincidence. Here’s a look at Williams’ heat map for pitch locations in his first seven games of 2017…
Now, compare that to his ensuing 24 starts. In that time, Williams posted a 3.65 ERA and limited his opponent BABIP to .294.
By commanding the bottom right corner of the zone, Williams jammed right-handed hitters and got left-handers to chase low. The inconsistency that he had with the zone at the beginning of the season
Williams thrived with more opportunities to work on his location and turned himself into a serviceable middle-of-the-rotation starter. That is understandable, considering that he had pitched in relief only two times in 84 minor-league appearances. Last season was proof that Williams is meant to be a starter.
Fastball
To be more effective low in the zone, Williams needed a go-to pitch. That turned out to be his fastball.
Williams’ fastball was used in 71.7-percent of his pitches, according to FanGraphs, and averaged 93.2-miles per hour. Despite the 0.9 MPH dropoff from 2016 to 2017, his fastball proved to be one of the best in MLB.
Justin Verlander, Chris Sale and James Paxton. Those are the only pitchers to throw a more effective fastball than Williams in 2018. At 21.5-runs above average, Williams was in select company and extremely effective.
Again, it wasn’t averaging a strong velocity but was nonetheless well above-average. This can be best attributed to his location of the fastball as explained above.
The only problem with Williams’ fastball being so good is that it was the only effective pitch. In 2017, his slider, changeup and curveball all rated negatively. Improving his breaking pitches is a must in 2018 for Williams. Currently, it’s what is separating him from being top of the rotation material.
Ground Balls
Most games, Williams used his fastball to generate ground balls. He finished with the best groundball percentage among Pirates starters last season and fourth-best among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched.
General manager Neal Huntington and the Pirates analytical department surely were glad to see Williams induce so many ground balls in 2017. This pitch-to-contact method has been preached throughout the Pittsburgh Pirates’ organization.
Whether or not this is the best way to teach pitching is up for debate. While Williams has performed solidly when pitching to contact, others like Charlie Morton are proof that not everyone shouldn’t want to generate swings-and-misses.
Williams will not strike out a lot of batters. His 7.00 K/9 was sandwiched in between Wade LeBlanc and Jhan Marinez for 18th out of 24 Pirates pitchers. Additionally, it was the second-worst K/9 among Pirates starters with at least 10 starts.
He doesn’t need to strike out 10 batters every game, but Williams must improve his strikeouts to compliment his ability to force ground balls. If he can do this, Williams will exceed his expectations. He’s projected to regress this season compared to last year but if changes are made, there may not be any regression but rather, progression.
Photo credit – Daniel Decker
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