The Pittsburgh Pirates head into the River City set to face the Cincinnati Reds with a full head of steam. Here now is your complete series preview.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are headed into their second series of the year with a full head of steam and the wind at their backs after sweeping away the Cardinals. After giving fans and observers a taste of their intended formula, the team now rides to a more home-run friendly park. Even though it is clearly not needed to win games, will the team use Great American Ballpark to rediscover their power?
We’ll answer that in short order. First, let’s review the pitching matchups.
Pitching Probables
Game One: LHP Francisco Liriano (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs RHP Alfredo Simon
Game Two: RHP Gerrit Cole vs RHP Raisel Iglesias (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
Game Three: LHP Jeff Locke vs. TBD
The pitching matchups are clearly tilted in favor of the Pirates, with Cole making his much antcipated season debut on Saturday. Despite his struggles against the Reds, Cole should be ready to go after a delayed start to his preparation for the season. It will be interesting to see how short of a leash he may have in his first outing of the year.
Liriano looks to build upon his ten-strikeout Opening Day performance. Liriano’s dominance was tempered by five walks, He will need to be efficient against patient hitters such as Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Though both are off to slow starts, they are still capable of getting on base at a competent clip. Liriano will oppose Simon, who returns to the Reds after a lost year as a Detroit Tiger. Despite a 5.04 ERA last year, Simon has won 28 games over the past two seasons.
Locke will also make his debut against an as-of-yet unknown Reds hurler. The debut will be Locke’s first regular season start with his revamped delivery.
In sandwiching Cole between two left-handers, the Pittsburgh Pirates can keep the Reds uncomfortable having not fully adjusted one way or the other.
Now, let’s see how the Pirates hitters do historically against Simon. (Baseball-reference’s play Index does not yet have data for Iglesias)
Pirates hitters versus Alfredo Simon
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 32 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | .269 | .406 | .385 | .791 |
| Starling Marte | 31 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | .333 | .419 | .407 | .827 |
| Jordy Mercer | 22 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | .250 | .318 | .400 | .718 |
| Josh Harrison | 21 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .250 | .286 | .350 | .636 |
| Matthew Joyce | 12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | .111 | .333 | .222 | .556 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .417 | .417 | .583 | 1.000 |
| David Freese | 10 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .222 | .300 | .333 | .633 |
| Gregory Polanco | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .444 | .500 | .556 | 1.056 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| John Jaso | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .125 | .222 | .125 | .347 |
| Chris Stewart | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Mike Morse | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 183 | 162 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 34 | .253 | .335 | .346 | .681 |
Pirates offense to breakout?
Perhaps breakout is not the right word for a team that has flexed its offensive muscle without hitting a home run thus far. The Pirates – Andrew McCutchen in particular – have already shown an ability to drive the ball and find gaps. With nine home runs in ten games there in 2015, I would be surprised if the Pirates were still at zero home runs after leaving Cincinnati. Here’s how they fared at the park last year:
| G | HR | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | RBI | SB | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | 381 | 338 | 37 | 75 | 19 | 35 | 4 | 30 | 91 | .222 | .293 | .358 | .651 | .274 |
Reds hitter to avoid
In identifying a Reds hitter to avoid, it is difficult not to point to anyone other than Votto. Though he particularly struggles against current Pirates pitching, he can still affect a game with his patient approach. Sound familiar? Here are Votto’s career numbers against Pittsburgh hurlers:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Liriano | 32 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | .185 | .313 | .296 | .609 |
| Jeff Locke | 28 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .333 | .464 | .429 | .893 |
| Jon Niese | 22 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | .118 | .273 | .294 | .567 |
| Tony Watson | 20 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | .294 | .400 | .353 | .753 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 17 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | .077 | .294 | .077 | .371 |
| Gerrit Cole | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | .167 | .286 | .167 | .452 |
| Juan Nicasio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .111 | .200 | .111 | .311 |
| Mark Melancon | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .167 | .375 | .667 | 1.042 |
| Arquimedes Caminero | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Neftali Feliz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | |||
| Cory Luebke | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 156 | 126 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 37 | .198 | .340 | .294 | .633 |
If one absolutely had to identify a secondary hitter to avoid, it would be speedster Billy Hamilton, but with a huge caveat. Though he may be neck and neck with Dee Gordon for the title of the best base-stealer in baseball, Hamilton is a very light hitter. Keeping him off the bases would be paramount, and the Pirates would do well to attack him as such.
The Reds are in a clear rebuilding mode and clearly lack pitching. The Pittsburgh Pirates offense should be able to have their way with the red-legs.
With Great American Ballpark having a home-run happy reputation, our latest Twitter poll seems accurate. Cast your vote!
GABP is a very home-run friendly ballpark. Which one of these #Pirates will hit the first home run of the year?
— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) April 8, 2016
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