The Pittsburgh Pirates chased a hot hand as Spring Training drew to a close
It’s not like the Pittsburgh Pirates had a choice. Juan Nicasio‘s performance was simply too good to ignore, as this graphic from that time reminds us.
It was that performance that pushed Ryan Vogelsong to the bullpen and put Nicasio into a starting role. Nicasio represented something shiny and new. An underrated pitcher devalued by time at Coors Field. Vogelsong represented the old guard – an insurance policy signed to a bare bones contract that represented the ultimate low-risk move. The team cast its die with Nicasio, hoping that lightning in a bottle wouldn’t simmer down to a flash in the pan.
You could say the results have been mixed.
| Date | Opp | Rslt | Inngs | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | StL | StS | GSc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | STL | W,5-1 | GS-6 | W(1-0) | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.50 | 84 | 59 | 19 | 9 | 71 |
| Apr 12 | DET | L,2-8 | GS-3 | L(1-1) | 3.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5.00 | 94 | 52 | 18 | 2 | 30 |
| Apr 17 | MIL | W,9-3 | GS-6 | W(2-1) | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.80 | 95 | 59 | 18 | 6 | 54 |
| Apr 23 | ARI | L,1-7 | GS-5 | L(2-2) | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4.50 | 101 | 65 | 25 | 8 | 53 |
| Apr 29 | CIN | W,4-1 | GS-7 | W(3-2) | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.33 | 97 | 63 | 18 | 10 | 78 |
| May 4 | CHC | L,2-6 | GS-5 | L(3-3) | 4.1 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4.02 | 102 | 66 | 18 | 11 | 29 |
| May 11 | CIN | W,5-4 | GS-6 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4.34 | 68 | 47 | 13 | 6 | 53 | |
| May 17 | ATL | W,12-9 | GS-5 | W(4-3) | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4.46 | 87 | 57 | 16 | 9 | 39 |
| May 28 | TEX | L,2-5 | GS-5 | L(4-4) | 4.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4.79 | 105 | 72 | 21 | 5 | 37 |
| Jun 2 | MIA | L,3-4 | GS-6 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4.75 | 103 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 49 | |
| 53.0 | 53 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 51 | 8 | 4.75 |
Still, the Pittsburgh Pirates were right to hope that Nicasio could keep it going, despite his history of bad control. The strange thing is, some of Nicasio’s peripherals are not out of line with his career numbers. His strikeouts per nine innings rest at 8.7, which is actually an improvement over his career mark of 7.5 but down from last season’s 10.0 mark. Nicasio’s strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.43 is a tick above his career number of 2.1, and his 1.39 WHIP (walks and hits divided by innings pitched) is the second-lowest of his career.
Nicasio has even gotten stronger as he goes longer into games, as Brooks Baseball tells us.
In the end, Nicasio’s struggles may not be borne out by some of his fringe stats, but they are present nonetheless.
No one should fault the Pittsburgh Pirates for sticking with Nicasio to see if he would right the ship, however. For teams like the Pirates, they must take these types of chances, find these types of market inefficiencies and rehab these types of players to remain competitive. Nicasio will likely be moved to the bullpen upon the arrival of Jameson Taillon and other pitching staff help. He will help the team in that role.
Or, Nicasio may shock everyone and go on a tear that equals, or even surpasses, his spring resume.
In either case, the Pittsburgh Pirates know they have contingencies, and having those contingencies allows them to take smart chances.
Sometimes those chances just dont’ work out.
But, that’s baseball.
Photo credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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