Welcome to the weekly Pittsburgh Pirates Rumor Mill, where we update you on all of the latest Pirates trades, signings, rumors, injury news, promotions, demotions, and the like from the past week.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been slowly fading out of Wild Card contention, and that, coupled with the waiver trade deadline passing, has some of us looking ahead to the off-season. At least, that’s the case here at Rumor Central. Any impact additions the Pirates have from now until the end of the season will come from within, whether that be improvements among the current roster or call-ups from the minors. But while we still maintain a heavy focus on this season, it’s always fun to look ahead to the off-season at what players might stay, who might go, and what the roster might look like next year.
So today we’ll take a look at the biggest needs for the Pirates this off-season, as well as Ivan Nova‘s free agent stock, and if the Pirates should consider re-signing him.
But first, let’s get to the injured Pirates.
Injury Updates
The only player left on the disabled list for the Pirates is Gerrit Cole, and he’s eligible to come off the DL this weekend. But there’s only so much time left for rehab assignments, bullpen sessions, and simulated games before the end of the regular season. Fortunately, those won’t be an issue, as it looks like Cole will start Monday in Philadelphia:
The Pirates will skip Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon's next start. Drew Hutchison will start Saturday, and Gerrit Cole Monday.
— Stephen J. Nesbitt (@stephenjnesbitt) September 8, 2016
In bad news, Elias Diaz has been shut down for the season:
Elias Diaz to be shut down for rest of the season due to leg infection which required procedure, Todd Tomczyk said
— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) September 7, 2016
Luckily this isn’t as big of a loss as it might have seemed months ago, as Chris Stewart has returned to back up Francisco Cervelli. Diaz’s role next season will be interesting, with both Cervelli and Stewart under contract for 2017, but with both experiencing their share of health issues this season.
Minor Moves
With rosters expanding on September 1st, the Pirates have made their fair share of moves this past week. We saw Jameson Taillon, Adam Frazier, and Steven Brault all return to the team after paper moves sent them down for a few days. Other players getting called up include Jason Rogers, Pedro Florimon, Trevor Williams, Drew Hutchison, and Tyler Glasnow. Kelvin Marte and Curtis Partch were designated for assignment, and Chris Stewart was recalled from the DL. But the biggest move was the recalling of Jung Ho Kang from the DL, as he’s continued his hot streak from when before he went on the DL.
What will Nova get?
Ivan Nova is having an eerily similar stint with the Pirates as J.A. Happ did last season, and he continued his dominance last night, pitching his second complete game since becoming a Pirate. He is setting himself up for a very nice contract this off-season, and we are now wondering whether Nova should be a realistic target for the Pirates.
There is a lot to like with Nova. His ERA of 2.53 with the Pirates his great, his WHIP under 1.00 is even better, and the fact that he’s only issued two free passes is incredible. It’d be one thing if Nova was pitching over his head or getting lucky, but the lack of walks helps to counter that argument. Maybe getting Nova out of the AL East is helping him, or maybe it’s the contract year phenomenon. Whatever it is, Nova is going to get paid this winter.
And a number of factors point to Nova getting a large contract. For one, the starting pitching market is putrid. So much so that Nova is likely a top-five free agent pitcher, and that Jeremy Hellickson might be the best pitcher available. Nova is also only 29 years old, which makes the risk of signing him to a long-term contract lessen a bit. And, most importantly, spending on starting pitching seems to go up every off-season. Even bad pitchers get big money.
Because of these facts, I could easily see Nova getting a contract that surpasses Happ’s from last off-season, both in total value and on a per-year basis. The question is, would it be worth it for the Pirates to target him? I say yes. The Opening Day payroll as it stands now will be less than it was last season, and the Pirates don’t have too many major holes to fill. The most expensive position to fill in baseball is starting pitching, and the Pirates will have an extremely cheap staff with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and Chad Kuhl forming the top four, and Drew Hutchison also in the mix. A Nova signing would safeguard against Glasnow not living up to his ceiling, or Cole getting injured or regressing again. And in this day, teams seemingly always need six starters. Heck, sign Nova and use Hutchison out of the pen to start. Someone will get injured or not perform well, and can we count on Hutch or Steven Brault to be that fifth starter? I’m not so sure.
It’s certainly worth considering.
Next year’s needs
Surprisingly, it seems like the Pirates are pretty well off for next season. Even if they don’t choose to sign Nova, they’d still have a better Opening Day rotation in 2017 than they did this past year. The starters in the field are set, and the Pirates have a fantastic bench piece in David Freese to build off of there. The bullpen has Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, Jared Hughes, and Juan Nicasio all returning as key pieces, and while the back-end may need to be improved, it’s not a necessity.
The biggest needs for the Pirates are filling out the back of the bullpen and adding a bench piece or two. But, unlike last off-season, there won’t much roster turnover this winter.
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