2016 Pittsburgh Pirates Series Preview – Visiting the Fathers

After a breakout offensive performance on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Pirates hit the road for an early season west coast trip. First up: the San Diego Padres

The Pittsburgh Pirates take their 7-6 early season mark on the road for their first west coast road trip of the 2016 season. The 10-game swing starts off with a three-game stint versus the San Diego Padres.

Seeing the Padres on the heels of a 17-hit, seven walk performance against the Brewers on Sunday might just be music to Pittsburgh’s ears. The Padres rank 10th in the 15-team  National League in ERA, and have given up 45 walks, sixth-most in the league. Though they allow their share of runners to get on base, the Padres also strike out their fair share of batters, 113 to be exact, second-most in the NL.

Pitching Matchups

Pitching Matchup Analysis

From the Pirates perspective, all eyes will be on Francisco Liriano as he returns to the starting rotation after being skipped over due to a tight hamstring.

Following Liriano will be Jeff Locke, meaning that the Padres will face two left handers in back-to-back games. This may bode well for San Diego, as the Padres actually have reverse splits against left-handed pitching.

The Pirates run-creation should continue to hum during this series, Colin Rea and James Shields have both proven to be very walk-prone thus far, each averaging more than 3.5 walks per nine inning, with Rea topping out at 5.6.

Drew Pomeranz could prove an intriguing matchup, as he will be the first left-handed starter that the Pirates will have faced in 2016. Manager Clint Hurdle will have his first chance to deviate from his consistent lineup against right-handers. Pomeranz also carries excellent strikeout ability, fanning more than 12 hitters per nine.

As Rae has not faced any current Pirates hitters, and David Freese is the only hitter with more than two plate appearances against Pomeranz, not much data is on the books for how the club might do against the right-handers.

Both pitchers have an eerily similar profile. Both carry a diverse pitch mix, with a four-seam used to setup a cutter, sinker, changeup and curve. As noted, Pomeranz carries a great deal more strikeout ability than Rae, and this is seen through a few of his pitches. Pomeranz’s fastball, changeup and curveball each carry swinging strike percentages of ten percent or more. Such a varied mix in strikeout pitches could keep Pirates hitters off-balance.

Pirates hitters versus Shields

Shields’ velocity can no longer blow by anyone. At 92mph but carrying just a 7.89 percent swinging-strike rate, the veteran relies chiefly on his changeup, curveball and cut fastball to generate swings and misses. Having said that, Shields has used the fastball 44 percent of the 0-2 counts he has faced this year. This should show the Pirates a way back to productive at-bats even after giving Shields two strikes. If they can wait on the fastball in an 0-2 count, the club could do some damage. Even considering the Pirates’ hitters ineptitude against him as seen above, the version of Shields the team will face is a far cry from his peak.

Hitter to avoid: Matt Kemp

To say that the Padres hitters are off to a slow start would be awfully generous. Nearly by default, we’ll name Matt Kemp as our hitter to avoid for this series. Kemp is slasing .277/.286/.532 on the year, with four home runs and 12 RBI. Two of those home runs and six of those RBI came in a 16-3 win over the Rockies at Coors Field back on April 9. Though many may have felt that Kemp’s best days are behind him, he may enjoying something of a resurgence as a Padre, totaling 52 home runs and 201 RBI during his two seasons and change in San Diego.

An honorable mention would be Jon Jay, noted thorn-in-the-side of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Though Jay has hit lightly during the 2016 season, he has tortured Pirates pitching, as seen below.

Jon Jay versus current Pirates pitchers

Though it may be easy to consider the San Diego Padres an also-ran due to their clearly ongoing rebuild, the Pittsburgh Pirates may be challenged at times by the fathers. With San Diego showing an ability to hit LHP well, expect a higher scoring affair than one would have anticipated.

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