The Pittsburgh Pirates have a clear shot at avoiding having history repeat itself, if they choose.
The Pittsburgh Pirates brought in J.A. Happ right at the trade deadline in 2015. If you’re reading this, you likely know the rest of the story. Fast forward to today, and Happ is a legitimate Cy Young contender in the American League, enjoying a fine season.
Fans are already bracing for history to repeat itself with Ivan Nova.
But, as you’ll see below, the Pirates have a clear path to not let that happen.
What will it take?
Nova will turn 30 years old in January, and this will be his first free agent contract. Nova will undoubtedly test the free agent market, and rightfully so. It is almost impossible to project any specific figures and years that will keep Nova’s services in the fold, but we can note that the lackluster free agent pitching market will have a profound effect on Nova’s value.
The top names on the market include Andrew Cashner, Doug Fister, Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson among others. All capable major league starters, all with a certain level of upside. But the merits of those names, as well as others on the market, pale in comparison to the dramatic turnaround that Nova has undergone since linking up with Ray Searage. Should his current level of performance carry through the rest of the 2016 season, Nova will be able to turn two months of outstanding play into a lucrative contract.
So, what can the Pittsburgh Pirates do to re-sign Nova?
The lack of frontline starter availability coupled with Nova’s turn around would normally place the Pirates behind the eight ball in re-signing Nova, but the planets may just be aligning for the club to have a real shot at bringing back the former New York Yankee.
When Neal Huntington traded away Francisco Liriano, the bug-a-boo term “financial flexibility” was thrown around. Despite the front office claiming affinity for Drew Hutchison, the team also wanted to cut bait with Liriano’s near-$14 million salary owed in 2017. The team has already begun to make good on re-allocating the dollars owed to Liriano by signing David Freese to a market-friendly extension. Further reallocation is almost a certainty.
After accounting for Freese’s 2017 salary, $7.67 Million of Liriano’s would-be 2017 salary will be available to use. While this certainly is not a large sum by today’s MLB standards, it is an attractive amount for a team like the Pirates, provided they use it wisely.
Key decisions are to be made
According to Spotrac, the Pittsburgh Pirates currently have $57,400,000 in guaranteed salaries on the books for 2017. This does not take into account arbitration raises for Gerrit Cole, Tony Watson and others.
And the “others” are precisely where the Pirates can make some key decisions that can affect their pursuit of Nova.
Jared Hughes, Juan Nicasio, Jeff Locke, Tony Watson, Jordy Mercer, Drew Hutchison and Gerrit Cole will all go through arbitration next year. While it is a lock that Cole, Mercer, Watson and even Hutchison will be tendered offers, it is on the fringes where the Pirates can gain even more financial flexibility to seriously pursue Nova.
Factoring in conservative arbitration raises, non-tendering Hughes, Nicasio and Locke could save the Pirates upwards of $10 million dollars. The team has viable replacements in tow. Trevor Williams has certainly done enough to warrant an inside track to a bullpen spot on the 2017 big league club. Nicasio’s performance since rejoining the relief corps has been serviceable, but can be easily replaced. Locke has a unique role as a long relief arm who can easily make spot starts, but that role can easily be filled by Steven Brault.
In essence, the team would be replacing higher priced arms with league minimum salaries that have considerable upside attached. With such a relatively small amount of committed money on the books for 2017 and beyond to begin with, this savings would further cement the flexibility the front office craved.
Rotation and bullpen fight for dollars
Neal Huntington has shown to be in lock-step with recent trends towards teams building sturdy bullpens. 2016 may result in Huntington refining that opinion.
In the early days of this season, Pittsburgh Pirates relievers struggled in part due to increased workloads from the lack of quality starts by Pirates starters. Next year’s rotation is likely to be much improved, with Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl anchoring the rotation along with a presumably healthy Cole. Though the jury is still out on Tyler Glasnow, a likely improvement in control should allow him to slide into the back end of the rotation.
That alone could be the elixir for the bullpen’s troubles. However, if Huntington sticks to his usual modus operandi, the dollars gleaned from cutting ties with Liriano could go towards shoring up a unit that will likely lose Neftali Feliz. It will be a serious internal debate that Huntington will have to have with himself and his lieutenants, but it is worth noting that the 98-win 2015 club was propelled by excellent starting pitching.
Last year, circumstances prevented the Pirates from making a serious push for Happ’s services.
This year, the Pittsburgh Pirates will undoubtedly be in a better position to re-sign Ivan Nova.
If they choose to.
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