Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Steven Brault is often the last on a long list of names when it comes to young pitchers. Can his spot start tonight turn heads?
Tonight, the Pittsburgh Pirates will turn to LHP Steven Brault for a rehab start in place of Gerrit Cole.
Brault has often been included in a group of pitching prospects that has had Pirates fans excited for years.
Those fans have seen Jameson Taillon dazzle with an effective approach and impressive pitch selection. They have also seen Chad Kuhl take to pitching in the majors with workmanlike efficiency. Though he has been wild, Tyler Glasnow has tantalized from a pure “stuff” standpoint.
Trevor Williams and Frank Duncan have both enjoyed breakout seasons at Triple-A Indianapolis. Nick Kingham‘s rehab reports are encouring. The organization clearly thinks very high of Drew Hutchison.
All of this may conspire to rob Brault of what many thought was a spot in the 2017 Pirates rotation that was his by default. Thus, tonight’s start – against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs no less – serves as more than just a vital start for a team in the thick of a Wild Card race. It may also serve as an audition of sorts for Brault’s future.
High pitch counts; low swing and miss
Of course, Brault has already had his MLB debut.
In two starts in the month of July, Brault compiled a 3.60 ERA in 10 innings pitched. He has given up 11 hits and four earned runs to date. In his July 5th start against the Cardinals, the lefty needed 82 pitches to get through four innings. In his July 29th encore against Milwaukee, he needed 102 lobs to get through six.
While those numbers are neither impressive nor discouraging, it is another set of numbers that may show that Brault is not ready for a regular MLB role.
Indeed, Brault’s inability to fool hitters could be seen as his biggest weakness to date. Some of this is by design. If we take his most recent start as an example, Brault used a four-seam fastball and slider almost exclusively. Of his 106 pitches, only four changeups were thrown. Because of his fastball/slider nature, Brault’s higher pitch counts are not too uncommon for a pitcher that needs to spend a significant amount of extraneous pitches purely as setup.
However, his O-Swing percentage (percentage of pitches outside the zone that a hitter offers at) is nearly half of the MLB average. With a first-strike percentage under 50 percent, Brault is still learning how to play these two pitches off of each other. A quick look at his heatmaps on the slider illustrates this.
Whether it is against an LHB or an RHB, Brault’s slider showed predictable movement, with a good chance at landing just below the strikezone.
Of the 41 batters he has faced, Brault has started off 34 of them with a fastball. This is where the F-Strike (First pitch strikes) percentage comes into play. Here now is a look at Brault’s first pitch fastball heatmap.
Brault’s heatmap for first pitch fastballs show some meatiness. Overall, he appears to start hiters in the bottom half of the zone but in the middle to inner third on right-handed hitters. With an equal chance to miss the zone entirely in his two starts thus far, Brault is playing with fire. While the first pitches haven’t necessarily been touched up, opposing hitters are hitting .333 off of Brault after a 0-1 count and .500 (with a 1.403 OPS) after 1-1. This shows that hitters are content to sit on Brault’s early offerings. While he has had but two starts, this “book” on Brault makes his limited pitch selection somewhat ineffective.
The Answer Must Lie With a Third Pitch
Of course, the elephant in the room is Brault’s lack of a third pitch.
We have seen many prized Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospects live and die by a third pitch. Taillon embraced a two seam fastball and a curveball to go along with his high velocity stuff. Glasnow has struggled in his short MLB time due to the lack of a fully developed third pitch.
Brault’s scenario is playing out nearly the same way, though his complete lack of even offering a third pitch is notable. Again, out of 106 pitches in his most recent outing, only four changeups were thrown.
Adding a developed changeup would do wonders for Brault’s slider. The ability to throw a change for similar velocity without the spin would greatly affect hitters’ ability to lock in and sit on the slider. Combined with improved fastball control that will come with more time and scouring, and Brault would be well on his way to having enough tools in his toolbox to serve as a middle-to-back end starter.
Time to Shine
Going back to the original question posited by this post- How vital is tonight’s start for Brault? While many would temper their expectations due to the quality of the opponent, Brault can force his way into the 2016 conversation by virtue of a solid – but not necessarily spectacular – performance. Holding his own against a quality club can turn some heads and perhaps change some hearts and minds.
Regardless, Brault will be a September call up. His two-pitch selection may in fact be better suited for a bullpen role until that third pitch develops. Still, it will likely take a solid performance from Brault to thrust his name back into the 2017 Pittsburgh Pirates rotation plans.
Photo Credit – MLB.com
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