The Pittsburgh Pirates are employing a new stolen base strategy during spring training. How will it affect the team during the season?
Even the most casual Pittsburgh Pirates observers have noticed a change in the team’s approach.
As told by Clint Hurdle to the media, the team is employing a “Full Metal Jacket” approach to run-creation. In emphasizing hit-and-runs, getting on base, and limiting strikeouts, Hurdle hopes to see the Pirates’ lineup employ something of a small-ball approach to scratching across runs.
Where does the stolen base fit into these plans?
The easy knock on the Pirates over the Clint Hurdle era is that they aren’t very good base-runners. Many feel that with the team-wide speed shown in Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, and Andrew McCutchen, the club should be running at each and every opportunity.
Have the Pirates truly been hesitant to run in the Hurdle era?
As shown, the true story when it comes to the Pittsburgh Pirates and stolen bases should be their stolen base percentage. Consistently ranked in the bottom third of the National League in stolen base percentage, the Pirates often find themselves in the upper echelon of total stolen bases, but these are nullified by the team’s propensity to run into outs, whether it be base-running mistakes or being caught stealing.
To begin to answer our question as to the stolen base’s relevancy to the Pirates’ new offense, we should look at how it has affected other teams over the past five seasons.
Three of the past five seasons have seen the team with the highest amount of stolen bases land in the top three run-producing offenses in the National League. In 2011, the San Diego Padres ranked first in stolen bases with 170, and second in runs with 593. In 2012, the Milwaukee Brewers ranked first in both SBs (158) and runs (776). And in 2014 the Los Angeles Dodgers had the most stolen bases with 138 and were second in runs scored with 718.
The 2015 Cincinnatti Reds took that trend and flipped it on its head. That club led the NL in stolen bases with 134, but was 12th in runs scored with 640.
Of course, when one player – in this case, noted speedster Billy Hamilton – accounts for 57 of the team’s 134 steals, it becomes easy to see that the importance of stolen bases may come not from the amount, but from who steals them. In the case of Hamilton, he was such an ineffective hitter that he would often bat eighth or ninth, limiting the usefulness of those stolen bases.
For the 2016 Pirates, the emphasis on creating “extra” runs through stolen bases lies on the four players mentioned at the top. All are speedy enough to contribute their fair share on the base-paths. It is advantageous that those four also will bat at varying spots through the order. While either Harrison or Polanco will presumably lead off, the other could bat lower in the order. With McCutchen and Marte sandwiched in the middle of the order, the Pirates can easily accomplish their mission to keep pressure on opposing pitchers if they are just more selective.
With the Pittsburgh Pirates on a stated mission to stop giving outs away, expect a more efficient base-stealing philosophy, even if the totals remain relatively stagnant.
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