Taming MLB’s Wild Card Format

Can the Wild Card format be changed to make it more fair without sacrificing the drama and excitement of a single winner-take-all game?

Ever since the wild card game was introduced in 2013, baseball fans have expressed extreme views about its fairness.  Many feel the excitement of a one game, winner-take-all wild card game generates a huge level of excitement right at the start of the playoffs.  Others feel that, after a 162 game regular season, a win-or-go-home one game playoff game is sheer madness.  Some just accept a one game system as the least bad solution to a compressed playoff schedule.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have to feel like the single wild card game format was invented just to torture them.  In each of the last three seasons, the Pirates have finished as the top wild card team in the National League.  In the years before the expanded wild card, this would have entitled them to be the fourth and final playoff team in the National League and they would have played a five game series against the top NL team.  Instead, they “drew a tough bull”, as Clint Hurdle likes to put it, and had to play a single elimination game each year against some of the toughest aces in the game.  It sure seemed like just when the Pirates were getting good again, the system was rigged against them.

Fortunately, there is a way to expand the wild card game into a wild card series without sacrificing the excitement and television ratings of the expanded wild card format.  This would not just benefit the Pirates, but all teams competing for the wild card.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The Pittsburgh Pirates have to feel like the single wild card game format was invented just to torture them. [/perfectpullquote]

Why only one game?

First, it is important to understand all of the reasons people have against a wild card series.  These can be summarized in the following points.

Schedule:  The regular season ends on a Sunday and the division series need to start on the following Thursday.  MLB uses a one game playoff to determine ties for division winners and wild card teams, which means they need to reserve at least two days for those games to take place if needed.  This does not leave enough time for a wild card series.

Weather:  MLB likes to have some flexibility around the first part of October to plan around any inclement weather in host cities.  Technically, if the wild card game looks like it might be rained out, MLB could pull it in a day or two, depending on what other one game division playoffs are happening.

Sacrosanct 162 game season:  Of course another way to get more time is to shorten the regular season.  Although there have been some proponents for this, it is very unlikely to happen.  It is not supported by the owners, as less games mean less revenue.  It is also not supported by the players as less games means less opportunity to set individual season records.

Television ratings:  The wild card games may not be fair, but they are very popular.  8.3 million viewers saw the 2015 Cubs-Pirates wild card game while the subsequent Cubs-Cardinals NLDS series only averaged 5.8 million viewers per game.  Many decision makers around the league don’t want to lose that excitement and viewership by making a dramatic single game into a drawn-out series.

The best 2 out of 3 solution:

Surely if there was an easy answer to this conundrum, it would have already been implemented.  No solution comes without tradeoffs, but there is at least one possible answer that doesn’t sacrifice any of the above justifications for a one game wild card format.

The solution is a three game series that is played on the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of the week after the normal 162 game season ends.  Immediately you may be asking “when would you play a potential one-game divisional playoff”?  In order to accommodate a three game wild card series, all divisional and wild card teams would have to be determined solely by their regular season record.  The existing tiebreaking procedures that are used to determine who hosts a one game tiebreaker would instead be used to determine who wins the division outright.  Same for the wild card tiebreakers.  In most cases, this is determined by regular season head to head records.

[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The solution is a three game series that is played on the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of the week after the normal 162 game season ends. [/perfectpullquote]

Purists may lament the loss of a “163rd game” to determine the outright winner of the division, but seriously, after each team plays 18 or 19 games against every other team in their division, the regular season head-to-head record is a much better indicator of the better divisional team than a one game tiebreaker.  By avoiding these individual tiebreaker games, three full days are freed up to play a best two out of three wild card series.

That takes care of the schedule, but what about potential weather delays?  With a game every day, there is no margin for error to allow for a storm to blow through.  In order to best mitigate this risk, the first two games of the series should be hosted by the wild card team with the better record.  This allows for a double header on Monday or Tuesday if the weather looks bleak one of those two days.  There is also a built-in incentive for the top wild card team as it ensures you will host two games.  The second wild card team is not assured of hosting anything, much like today’s single game format.

Average television ratings may take a hit, but this will be more than made up for by the fact that at least two wild card games will be played in each League.  Two or three playoff games versus only one has got to be an overall revenue improvement for the teams involved.

To summarize, the three division champs and the two wild card teams in each league would be determined by their regular season records as it is done today.  In the case of a tie, the league would use tiebreaking procedures, instead of a tiebreaking game, to determine who is in and who is out.  The wild card series would be a best two out of three with the first two games hosted by the higher of the two wild card teams.

What might have been:

It is an interesting thought exercise to think about how last year’s wild card might have played out for the Pirates. had this system been in place.  The first game in Pittsburgh would have probably ended the same way, with Arrieta dominating Gerrit Cole and the Pirates.  But game two, again in Pittsburgh, would have probably featured Francisco Liriano versus Kyle Hendricks.  Hendricks had an ERA of 3.95 in 2015, as opposed to the breakout season he is having now, so he would have been beatable.  Game three would have played out with AJ Burnett pitching against Jon Lester in Chicago.  You have to like Pittsburgh’s chances of winning those last two games.

And, if you are a true Pittsburgh Pirates fan, you have to like a wild card series.