With the Pittsburgh Pirates coming out of the gates hot in the second half, they currently sit just five games back of the division lead. The team has won nine of their last 11. If this type of play continues for the next two weeks, the Pirates will be buyers at the deadline.
The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays have added bullpen help in the past week. Some Pittsburgh Pirates relievers were originally on those teams’ radar. With less options to potentially sell to, the Pirates could potentially become light buyers by default. In that vein, here are some potential starting pitching targets they could be after.
A quick reminder
The PIttsburgh Pirates have a lot of starting pitching depth but big game experience is lacking after Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova. Adding one more veteran — likely a rental — to the rotation could shore things up. In the past two seasons, the Pirates have added an under the radar starting pitcher at the trade deadline. These pitchers were JA Happ in 2015 and Ivan Nova last year. They were both arguably the best pitchers added at the deadline statistically for the final two months.
So who could be this year’s Happ or Nova?
Three starting pitchers the Pirates could potentially go after are Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Holland, and Matt Moore. These pitchers are all on clear sellers. They all have postseason experience. They are all good buy low candidates. Finally, they’re all fairly cheap.
Jeremy Hellickson
On the year, Hellickson is 6-5 with a 4.44 ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies. He has 59 strikeouts and 28 walks this season. Hellickson has been pretty lucky this year posting an FIP of 5.53, well above his ERA. With a K/9 of 4.95, the strikeouts are way down. He’s also getting less ground balls than in the past posting a 35.4 percent ground ball rate compared to his career mark of 39 percent.
If the Pirates were to trade for him, it shouldn’t take any top prospects and would he would be owed anywhere between about $5-8 million. If he can induce a few more ground balls and strikeout a few more batters, Hellickson would be a nice starter to round out the rotation.
Derek Holland
Holland has struggled this year posting a 5-9 record with an ERA of 5.18. He has 81 strikeouts and 39 walks. His FIP is 5.66 so he pretty much is what he is. Holland has pretty much pitched to his career norms this year except for one factor. His 37.8 percent hard hit rate given up is a career high. His career mark sits at 30.5 percent. Holland tends to be a guy who gives up a lot of home runs. This year he has given up 21. Both teams he has played for, the White Sox and Rangers, have smaller parks. A more spacious PNC Park could help.
It should be noted and Pirates Breakdown can confirm that an offer was made by the Pittsburgh Pirates to Holland before he ultimately signed with the White Sox, so the interest from the club is already there. Holland is currently on a one year, six million dollar deal so money is not an issue.
Matt Moore
Moore is having what looks like his career worst year. He is 3-10 with a 5.81 ERA. Moore has 87 strikeouts and 42 walks. With an FIP of 4.74, the 28-year old southpaw has been pretty unlucky. Like Holland, Moore has given up a career high rate of hard hit balls at 36.2 percent. His career mark sits at 30.4 percent. Moore’s strikeouts are slightly down as he holds a K/9 of 7.43. He has a career mark of 8.20.
Moore’s most successful pitch this year in terms of batting average against has been his curveball. Hitters have a .271 average against that pitch, lower than any other pitch. Coincidentally or not, Moore has thrown his curveball just 16.7 percent of the time. Last year he threw the curveball 22.2 percent of the time. In his career, he’s thrown it 19.4 percent of the time. Moore has used his cutter this year more than any other year throwing it 14.4 percent of the time. Last year he threw the cutter 4.3 percent of time and over his career just 3.9 percent of the time. Hitters are batting .314 against the pitch. Perhaps it is time for Moore to throw less cutters and more curveballs.
After this season, Moore has a team option of $9 million in 2018 and $10 million in 2019. The flexibility is there money wise. In terms of cost, Moore would probably be more expensive in terms of prospects than the first two options based on age and overall talent. He has the best stuff out of these three.
Final thoughts
All three of these pitchers have had past success. All three of these pitchers have been pretty bad this year. Both Happ and Nova were bad in the past two seasons before coming to Pittsburgh. If the Pirates deal for an under the radar starter such as the names listed or somebody else, I have no choice but to trust the decision. If I had to choose one of the three above, I would choose Matt Moore.
Photo credit – Flickr Creative Commons
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