Pittsburgh Pirates Trade Target Profile: Jake Odorizzi

As part of our Trademas in July series, we’ll take a look at potential trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today we look at Jake Odorizzi, right-handed pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

The Pittsburgh Pirates need a starting pitcher at the deadline. And if they decide not to add a starter, then they probably won’t add at all at the deadline. It’s clearly the team’s biggest need at the moment.

The Tampa Bay Rays will probably be the biggest sellers of starting pitching this month. We’ve already broken down Chris Archer and Matt Moore, but the other starter that has attracted interest on the Rays’ staff is Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is a lesser-known name around the game, but he could arguably help a contender just as much Archer or Moore could. The Pirates had scouts in Tampa this past weekend scouting each of these three, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt to do their due diligence on the cheapest option of the group.

Profile and Performance

The 26-year-old righty has been in the league since 2012 when he was a rookie with the Royals, but has been with the Rays since 2013. However, he didn’t become a full-time starter until 2014. Odorizzi made his way to the Rays as part of the trade that sent James Shields to the Royals. Below are Odorizzi’s career statistics:

 

 

According to Brooks Baseball, Odorizzi relies primarily on a fourseam fastball and splitter, but also occasionally uses a slider and cutter. However, he rarely throws a curve or sinker. His four-seamer is above-average compared to the rest of the league in terms of swings-and-misses, while his cutter generates a ton of ground balls. He generally strikes out batters at an above average rate and walks batters at a below average rate. He’s been pretty consistent during his three years as a starter, however, this year he is allowing a few more home runs than he usually does.

Odorizzi is making just $520,700 in his final pre-arb year before he enters his first year of arbitration eligibility next season.

The Case For Odorizzi

• Odorizzi’s K/BB ratio is what you look for in a starter. For his career, he averages about three strikeouts for every walk, and I’ll take six strikeouts and two walks or nine strikeouts and three walks in any start. His KK/9 has been above eight in each of his three major league years as a starter, while his BB/9 has been under 3.2 each year in that same span. The Pirates normally acquire pitchers that have high strikeout rates and high walk rates and look to put Ray Searage and the coaching staff to work. But if they can get a pitcher that has a relatively-high strikeout rate with a low walk rate, the work for the coaching staff is reduced tremendously.
• He’s also been remarkably consistent in his career. His K/9 rate has fluctuated only 1.3 points over the past three seasons, and his BB/9 has fluctuated just 0.6 points in the same span. His ERA hasn’t moved more than one run, and his WHIP just 0.13 points. Essentially, you know what you’re getting in Odorizzi: a good number three starter to slot behind Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, and a huge drop-off in the second half shouldn’t be anticipated.
• And let’s not forget his contract situation. Odorizzi is making next to nothing this season, and much less than either Archer or Moore are making for the Rays. If he surprisingly turns out to be awful, the Pirates can choose to non-tender him in any of his upcoming years of arbitration. He’d be a nice edition, financially-speaking, to a pitching staff next year that could see Cole, Taillon, and Tyler Glasnow making next to nothing, in a day when starting pitching is so overpriced.

The Case Against Odorizzi

• Odorizzi hasn’t pitched over 170 innings in a season in his career. He should pass that mark this year for the first time, and the only time he missed due to injury was last year, but you wonder if he can give the Pirates six strong innings. He’s averaging 5.51 innings per start this year, and hasn’t averaged over 6.03 innings per start in his years as a starter. That’d be better than what the Pirates starters are giving the team right now, but is it enough, considering how much work the bullpen has already put in this season?
• Odorizzi’s home runs per nine is at a career-high rate of 1.5 this season. Now, that’s still nothing to be too scared about, but it’s still concerning. Maybe this year is an outlier, or maybe he’ll correct this issue in the second half of the season. But we saw the damage a higher-than-usual home run rate did to Jon Niese. Hopefully this isn’t a trend and it’s just a minor issue.
• The cost for Odorizzi might be too much for the Pirates considering it’s shaping up to be a seller’s market. The Red Sox gave up a top-30 prospect for Drew Pomeranz, who is better than Odorizzi, but has one less year of control left. Would the Pirates be willing to part with an upper-tier prospect to get a quality starter? After all, Neal Huntington almost never parts with top-100 prospects.

What it Might Take…

As mentioned above, it’s a seller’s market, especially for starting pitching. Teams always need pitching, and it seems that’s certainly the case again this year. I’d say the Pirates might be able to pry  Odorizzi away from the Rays for one upper tier or two middle-tier prospects, to the tune of Kevin Newman, or Alen Hanson and Mitch Keller. If I were the Pirates, I’d hold onto Austin Meadows, Josh Bell, and Tyler Glasnow, and try to overwhelm other teams with quantity rather than quality. The Rays seem to need bats in their system, and a guy like Kevin Newman, who is rated highly by some, could be appealing. Or try dangling former-top prospect Alen Hanson and Mitch Keller, who is rapidly rising the national prospect ranks with a breakout season this year, and hoping that the Rays get their higher-rated prospects in trading away Archer and Moore to other teams, and I could see Huntington pulling the trigger on this trade.

Conclusion

I think the Pittsburgh Pirates will add a starter before the August 1st trade deadline. They don’t need an ace, but they could use someone to improve over Jeff Locke at the back-end. Odorizzi would be a big improvement, and he might cost less than either Moore or Archer. The Pirates have the depth in their farm system to make a deal happen, and if the Rays bite on a couple of mid-tier prospects, I’d do the trade.

Follow along with our Trademas in July coverage with these other trade target profiles:

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Featured Image Credit – Keith Allison via Flickr Creative Commons

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