As part of our Trademas in July series, we’ll take a look at potential trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, we look at Jeremy Hellickson, right-handed starter for the Philadelphia Phillies.
The trade season has been moving rather slow so far, both for the Pittsburgh Pirates and around the league. Many are saying that it’s a seller’s market, especially when it comes to starting pitching, but the prices for starters could drop as the deadline nears. For now, we profile another starter who could be a fit with the Pirates: Jeremy Hellickson of the Phillies.
Hellickson’s name has been involved in trade speculation for most of the season, considering the Phillies are going to be sellers and Hellickson is a free agent-to-be at the end of the year. The Pirates also have some recent history of trading with the Phillies, they need a starting pitcher, and Hellickson is having a good year. A trade for Hellickson makes sense.
Profile and Performance
Hellickson has been a good number-four or average number-three starter for most of his career. He began with Tampa Bay in 2010 and had a couple of quality seasons in 2011, in which he was the AL Rookie of the Year, and 2012 before falling off in 2013 and 2014. After the 2014 season, Hellickson was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks and had another sub-par season. After the 2015 season, Hellickson was flipped to the Phillies for a minor leaguer. He was the Phillies Opening Day starter this year, and is putting up good numbers in a contract year.
Career-to-Date
| Year | Tm | W | L | G | GS | IP | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | TBR | 4 | 0 | 3.47 | 10 | 4 | 36.1 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 3.88 | 1.101 | 7.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 8.2 |
| 2011 | TBR | 13 | 10 | 2.95 | 29 | 29 | 189.0 | 64 | 62 | 21 | 72 | 117 | 4.44 | 1.153 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 5.6 |
| 2012 | TBR | 10 | 11 | 3.10 | 31 | 31 | 177.0 | 68 | 61 | 25 | 59 | 124 | 4.60 | 1.254 | 8.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 6.3 |
| 2013 | TBR | 12 | 10 | 5.17 | 32 | 31 | 174.0 | 103 | 100 | 24 | 50 | 135 | 4.22 | 1.351 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 7.0 |
| 2014 | TBR | 1 | 5 | 4.52 | 13 | 13 | 63.2 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 21 | 54 | 4.15 | 1.445 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 7.6 |
| 2015 | ARI | 9 | 12 | 4.62 | 27 | 27 | 146.0 | 79 | 75 | 22 | 43 | 121 | 4.44 | 1.329 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 7.5 |
| 2016 | PHI | 7 | 7 | 3.65 | 21 | 21 | 125.2 | 57 | 51 | 19 | 28 | 107 | 4.17 | 1.122 | 8.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 7.7 |
| 7 Yrs | 56 | 55 | 3.90 | 163 | 156 | 911.2 | 420 | 395 | 124 | 281 | 691 | 4.35 | 1.253 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 6.8 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 12 | 12 | 3.90 | 35 | 33 | 194 | 90 | 84 | 26 | 60 | 147 | 4.35 | 1.253 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 6.8 | |
There are two Hellicksons here: the one that started off well for the Rays and that we may be seeing again this season, and the one who hit some hard times in the middle of his career. I’d say the numbers this season are legitimate and that he should hold up for the rest of the season. If you take out his first season in the bigs when he made just four starts and saw just 36.1 innings of work, Hellickson is putting up career-high K/9, career-low BB/9, career-low WHIP, and is on pace for a career-high in starts.
The Case for Hellickson
- Hellickson’s stats this season are legitimate, and he’s on pace for a great season that makes us remember the Hellickson of old when he was just breaking into the league. And his ERA of 3.65 is backed up by ever other stat in the book. His K/9 of 7.7 is the highest of his career outside of his rookie year in 2010. His BB/9 of 2.0 would tie his 2010 campaign for the lowest rate of his career. And his WHIP of 1.12 would also be the lowest of his career outside of 2010. His FIP is 4.17, so while he’s outperforming the advanced stats in this regard, the difference is drastic enough to be of concern.
- Normally, a rental player wouldn’t be ideal for the Pirates, who might be eyeing a trade that gives up top prospects only for a player with multiple years of control. But in this case, the fact that Hellickson is a free agent at the end of the season could be beneficial to the Pirates. He would cost much less than, say, a Chris Archer or a Chris Sale, even if it is still a high price. He’s also making just $7 million this season, a bargain for the performance the Pirates would be getting from him.
- And Hellickson is exactly what the Pirates need right now: a cheaper external option to be a back-end starter for the team. He’d round out a top five of Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Francisco Liriano, and Tyler Glasnow. Chad Kuhl could then become the depth option. The Pirates don’t necessarily need an ace right now. They need a fifth starter. In order to get to and compete in the playoffs, the Pirates need their current players to peform to the level their capable of. Thus, they shouldn’t trade for a starter, but rather go for a cheaper option and hope that the current team starts playing more to their talent level.
The Case against Hellickson
- Right now, the cost seems to be high for any starting pitcher. Is it worth it to even trade for one in this market? It’s a good question. Maybe trading for a pitcher having a bad year with a good history with be a nice, cheap option. The Pirates were able to do that with J.A. Happ last season and that worked out pretty well for them. I still think the Pirates need a proven pitcher that is pitching well this season, even if it means giving up a quality prospect or two.
- While most of Hellickson’s stats bode well for him pitching well the rest of the season, one that sticks out negatively is his home run rate. He’s giving up home runs at a career high rate and is one pace to allow the most home runs of his career. Is this something Ray Searage can fix? Is it something that even needs fixing? The Pirates will certainly take this into consideration before any trade is made.
What it Might Take
Normally I’d say Hellickson would be one of the cheaper pitchers on the market, mostly because of his contract situation and the fact that there are better pitchers with better histories available. But with this seller’s market, and the Phillies’ unique payroll situation next season, that may not be the case:
Teams talking to Phillies about Jeremy Hellickson say they want "one of your top 5 prospects" – or they'll keep him & take the draft pick
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 27, 2016
Another reason why PHI could give Hellickson a qualifying offer this winter: They have only $25m in payroll commitments for 2017. @jaysonst
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 27, 2016
Yes, it is most certainly a seller’s market. Maybe this is the Phillies trying to up offers for their players, or maybe they’re speaking the truth. In any case, I don’t see the Pirates giving up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, or Josh Bell for Hellickson. However, would they give up someone like Kevin Newman, Harold Ramirez, or Reese McGuire? That would be tempting. Some might consider it overpaying, but I think if those same people viewed the market as a whole, any team that is buying at the deadline would be overpaying in their eyes. The Pirates may be able to afford giving up, say, a Mitch Keller or a Harold Ramirez for Hellickson, and I might do that.
Conclusion
I say go for it. The Pirates, with another starter and a reliever, have the talent to make the playoffs, and from there, who knows. With the second Wild Card, teams will never again be able to get players at prices they used to, so this is the future of the trade deadline. The Pirates are one of the few teams that can give up a top five prospect from their system and be just fine. In fact, I say the Pirates go for Hellickson and Jeanmar Gomez for a couple of prospects and make a run at a fourth-consecutive postseason berth for the first time in franchise history.
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Featured Photo Credit – Keith Allison
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