Thanks to a slow start to the season, trade rumors surrounding who the Pittsburgh Pirates will jettison have emerged. Is it time to panic or do the Pirates just need more time? If trades are going to be made, who has to go?
2017 has provided a less than desirable start for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Entering Saturday night, Pittsburgh is 13-16 and in last place in the National League Central division.
Despite the rough start, the Pirates are only three games out of first place in the N.L. Central as the Chicago Cubs (16-13) are off to a slow start by their terms. A year ago to this date, the Cubs were in first and the Pirates were second, but Pittsburgh was 6.5 games out of first. Furthermore, the Pirates are only 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and a playoff berth.
At this point in time, it is hard to gauge if the Cubs are going through a World Series hangover, or are in fact off to a slow start.
This is the dilemma for the Pirates. At a sub-.500 record, Pittsburgh isn’t celebrating anything, yet if the Pirates can get hot, they have a legitimate shot to make the postseason.
The question becomes: if his team continues its up and down play, never quite gaining ground in either the central or playoff races, when does Neal Huntington flip the switch to turn the team into sellers?
Pitching is keeping the ship afloat
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has been phenomenal and is ninth in MLB in team ERA (3.85). The Pittsburgh Pirates have limited opponents to three runs or less in 13 games.
Starting pitching in particular has been strong. Ivan Nova has thrown two complete games and was the N.L. Pitcher of the Month in April. Gerrit Cole has bounced back from a troublesome Opening Day and thrown five consecutive quality starts. Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl both have pitched strong but have inflated ERA’s because of one bad start apiece.
#Pirates Ivan Nova 2017:
2 complete games
1 shutout
1 walk
1 3-0 count— Joe Block (@joe_block) May 3, 2017
Ice-cold bats
Offensively, the Pirates leave a lot to be desired. Pittsburgh hits .235 and has scored five or more runs only nine times through 19 games.
While Josh Harrison (.293, five home runs, 130 wRC+) has started the season strong and has been the Pirates’ best hitter, he needs some help. Andrew McCutchen (.226), Gregory Polanco (.233) and Jordy Mercer (.217) are off to forgettable starts.
Part of the offensive struggles can be blamed on the absences of Starling Marte and Jung-Ho Kang. However, that does not excuse the Pirates’ .235 average with runners in scoring position (22nd in MLB) or its .192 average from the seventh inning on.
The bright spot offensively is that two solid hitters in Adam Frazier and David Freese are expected to return from the disabled list within the next week. Additionally, Marte’s PED suspension ends in mid-July. Kang is the only uncertainty because he is still waiting to get back into the United States.
Fate of the season depends on the bats
If the Pirates choose not to sell, they’ll need the bats to wake up to give them a chance at October baseball. Something has to improve and perhaps waiting for the team to get back to full health would be best.
That said, that does not include waiting for Marte and Kang to get here. Marte cannot play until July 18, 13 days before the MLB Trade Deadline, and with each day, it looks less and less likely that Kang will play at all this season. Certainly getting Marte back will help, but the team’s fate will most likely be sealed even before he returns. Trading away star prospects just to maybe make it as the second Wild Card is not worth it.
It May depend on this month
That means, that by the end of May, assuming all or most major position players are healthy, the Pirates will know if 2017 is worth going all-in on. Two months of ice-cold bats will indicate that the lethargic offense is not going away. However, if the Pirates begin hitting upon the return of Frazier of Freese, perhaps they are hitting their stride after a slow start.
This month’s schedule is not overly difficult. Sure, there are matchups with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals, but there’s also gimmes against the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. If the Pirates make it out of the month with a winning record, they’ll prolong the debate over whether to trade away some star players for prospects or not. The sooner the Pirates decide to sell, the better. It would be better for them to set the market than to have to meet the market requirements.
If things keep going south offensively and the losses rack up, then it will be time to deal away some key assets. Here are three players that the Pirates should trade if they choose to sell in 2017.
Gerrit Cole
Might as well get his name out of the way early. As the rumors of Cole’s potential departure continue to swirl, the prospect of a future without the 2011 No. 1 pick become more likely. Cole has expressed his frustration with the Pirates before and is represented by Scott Boras, who is notorious for grinding out contract negotiations until he feels his client is blown away with an offer.
Trading Cole would hurt because it means getting rid of one of the centerpieces of general manager Neal Huntington’s rebuilding experiment. However, since the Pirates have never advanced past the N.L. Division Series during Cole’s Pirates tenure, the time to move on may be now.
While his upper 90’s fastball and previous success make Cole enticing to almost anyone, what could really generate interest is that Cole is not a free agent until after the 2019 season. That’s two full seasons of control plus the remainder of this season for whichever team that would get Cole. Either a team could add him on and hope to win in the short term before letting him go or try and buy out his final two years of arbitration with a multi-year deal.
As mentioned before, Cole has bounced back this season after a rocky 2016 and will have no shortage of suitors if the Pirates choose to make him available.
Tony Watson
It’s a tradition like no other. The Pirates trading away their stellar closer because of a poor season. Joel Hanrahan, Octavio Dotel and Mark Melancon certainly know what that is like.
Watson, though more successful as a setup man, is 7-7 in save opportunities this season with a 0.87 ERA in 10 games. He’s not getting used as much as the Pirates would like, but there haven’t been enough save opportunities to warrant using him. On a contender, Watson would see plenty of action, whether it’s as a closer or as a setup man.
The biggest reason for trading Watson is that he is a free agent this offseason. While re-signing him is realistic, it is not necessary. Relievers are the most replaceable players in baseball and the Pirates seemingly have a closer-of-the-future in Felipe Rivero. Moving forward with Rivero only makes sense since he is younger and under team control until 2022.
Trading away Watson now for talent would be better than letting him walk this offseason.
David Freese
Yes, he did just sign a contract extension at the end of last season, but Freese’s days in Pittsburgh may be numbered as the Pirates continue to drop games.
Though currently on the disabled list, Freese’s .321 averages leads Pirates hitters with at least 50 at bats. Defensively, Freese is versatile. He’s a solid defender at third base (seven defensive runs saved in his two seasons with the Pirates) and learned how to play first base last season. He also played five innings at second base last season but never made a play.
Freese’s contract is extremely team-friendly and moveable. He is making $6.25 million this season and $4.25 million next year. His potential $6 million 2019 season is a club option. Trading him would not be out of financial necessity, it would be in hopes of netting a solid return.
Still some time
The 2017 season is not over, but it might be soon if the Pirates don’t start hitting. May will determine whether or not the Pirates should be sellers this season. If they choose to sell, they have some assets to barter.
[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””] The sooner the Pirates decide to sell, the better. It would be better for them to set the market than to have to meet the market requirements. [/perfectpullquote]One player that wasn’t mentioned but could be a solid trade piece is Andrew McCutchen. However, dealing McCutchen may prove to become more and more difficult with each game that his batting average drops and his defensive play continues to struggle (-2 defensive runs saved in centerfield).
Trading McCutchen would also be awkward because of the Marte suspension. If McCutchen is dealt. Polanco likely goes to center until Marte returns, but the Pirates would have to select corner outfielders from an inexperienced pool of Jose Osuna, John Jaso, Adam Frazier and others. Calling up Austin Meadows is certainly an option, but he is hitting .198 in Triple-A Indianapolis and doesn’t appear poised to be called up anytime soon.
Early signs seem to be pointing towards the Pittsburgh Pirates selling this season. How many players they will deal before July 31 remains to be seen.
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