As part of our Trademas in July series, we’ll take a look at potential trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today, we look at Rich Hill, a left-handed starter for the Oakland A’s.
Throughout this Trademas season, we’ve looked at mostly pitching options and today is no different as we look at starting left-handed pitcher Rich Hill of the Oakland A’s.
The Oakland A’s currently sit at 46-55, and that makes them fairly obvious sellers. Rich Hill is an intriguing rental option. Hill hasn’t pitched much since May, but he is likely to be moved as a rental this trade deadline.
Hill has made 14 starts for the A’s this season and has a 2.25ERA. His 2.53FIP also indicates that his success hasn’t been because of good luck and should be sustainable for the duration of the regular season.
Profile and Performance:
Hill is a 6’5, 220-pound left-handed pitcher, and his pitching repertoire features a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a cutter, a slider and a change-up.
Hill is not a power guy and his average pitch velocities reflect that:
- Four-seam Fastball: 90.4MPH
- Two-seam fastball: 89.3
- Cutter: 74.7MPH
- Change-Up: 81.6
- Slider: 79.7
His most successful pitch in 2016 has been his cutter, which has held opposing hitters to a slash line of .197/.287/.283/.569
Career to date:
| Year | Age | G | GS | GF | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 25 | 9.13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 23.2 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 5.17 | 1.775 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 1.24 |
| 2006 | 26 | 4.17 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 99.1 | 83 | 51 | 46 | 16 | 39 | 90 | 4.67 | 1.228 | 7.5 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 2.31 |
| 2007 | 27 | 3.92 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 195.0 | 170 | 89 | 85 | 27 | 63 | 183 | 4.32 | 1.195 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 8.4 | 2.90 |
| 2008 | 28 | 4.12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19.2 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 5.83 | 1.576 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 0.83 |
| 2009 | 29 | 7.80 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 57.2 | 68 | 53 | 50 | 7 | 40 | 46 | 5.21 | 1.873 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 1.15 |
| 2010 | 30 | 0.00 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.33 | 1.500 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 3.00 |
| 2011 | 31 | 0.00 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 8.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1.52 | 0.750 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 13.5 | 4.00 |
| 2012 | 32 | 1.83 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 19.2 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 2.64 | 1.424 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 1.91 |
| 2013 | 33 | 6.28 | 63 | 0 | 3 | 38.2 | 38 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 29 | 51 | 3.82 | 1.733 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 11.9 | 1.76 |
| 2014 | 34 | 3.38 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 3.69 | 2.438 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 15.2 | 1.50 |
| 2014 | 34 | inf | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 2014 | 34 | 1.69 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2.01 | 1.688 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 15.2 | 3.00 |
| 2015 | 35 | 1.55 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 29.0 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 2.27 | 0.655 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 7.20 |
| 2016 | 36 | 2.25 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 76.0 | 55 | 22 | 19 | 2 | 28 | 90 | 2.53 | 1.092 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 3.21 |
| 12 Yrs | 4.23 | 215 | 88 | 13 | 576.0 | 498 | 289 | 271 | 62 | 260 | 577 | 4.07 | 1.316 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 2.22 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 4.23 | 48 | 20 | 3 | 129 | 112 | 65 | 61 | 14 | 58 | 129 | 4.07 | 1.316 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 2.22 | |
The Case for Hill:
- Hill is a rental and only making $6 million this season. That is not a lot of cash for the Pirates to take on and given his age, he isn’t a long-term commitment at all.
- Hill currently had a 50% groundball rate, which obviously fits the Pirates team concept.
- Hill completely owns left-handed hitters as he holds them to .197/.229/.242/.471 slash line. That could be a huge weapon against Matt Carpenter and Anthony Rizzo.
- Hill throws inside strikes nearly 40% of the time, which is obviously another trademark of a Ray Searage lead pitching staff.
The Case Against Hill:
- Hill is 36-years-old and has struggled to stay healthy this season. Because of a hamstring injury and a blister, he has only made three starts since May 29th.
- Hill has never really been a full-time starting pitcher. Since 2009 he has been mostly used as a reliever so it’s hard to know how he will hold up under a full season’s worth of pitching as a starter.
- During the course of the season, Hill’s average fastball velocity has decreased as it has gone from 92MPH to just over 90MPH. That could be a sign that he tiring from his workload.
What it Might Take:
Given his age and lack of starting success, Hill shouldn’t be too expensive. He would most likely cost the Pirates a mid-tier position player prospect or two low-level pitching prospects.
The Oakland A’s have a fairly well-stocked farm system, but Billy Beane has a history of making a lot of trades, so he is a big fan of stockpiling prospects. So I don’t expect it would take anyone from the big league roster to land Hill. Since Hill is a rental, it won’t cost the Pirates much money so that won’t get in the way of any potential trade.
Conclusion:
Rich Hill is a somewhat intriguing option, but he has way too many red flags for my taste. He has not been healthy and hasn’t really pitched much since the end of May. He has put up good numbers, but he also only pitched 76 innings in 2016. I would expect Neal Huntington to inquire about Hill but unless the asking price is fairly cheap, I would not expect Hill to be in a Pirates’ uniform following the trade deadline.
He has put up good numbers, but he also only pitched 76 innings in 2016. I would expect Neal Huntington to inquire about Hill but unless the asking price is fairly cheap, I would not expect Hill to be in a Pirates’ uniform following the trade deadline.
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