The Pittsburgh Pirates and Their Unlikely Leadoff Hitter

Recent comments by Pittsburgh Pirates manager Clint Hurdle point towards an unlikely leadoff hitter staying in that position for the time being.

After the Pittsburgh Pirates wrapped their 7-3 loss to the Cincinnatti Reds this past Sunday, manager Clint Hurdle was asked about Josh Harrison serving as the leadoff hitter. He had this to say, as reported by MLB.com’s Adam Berry:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Clint Hurdle on Josh Harrison” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]”For right now, he’s given us the spark we were looking for, absolutely. That’s why we made the change. He’s done it in the past. There’s some numbers that swing his way when you look at it.”[/perfectpullquote]

Harrison himself had this to say regarding his perch atop the Pirates’ top hitting spot:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Josh Harrison” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]”I would say that’s where I’m most comfortable. I’m an aggressive hitter, but being up there, it slows me down sometimes.”[/perfectpullquote]

For Hurdle, the temptation to catch lightning in a bottle with Harrison at the top is one rooted in history. During his breakout 2014 season, Harrison spent the vast majority of his time at the top spot – 357 of his 550 plate appearances – and performed admirably, slashing .328/.359/.535.

The thing is, Harrison does not fit the prototypical leadoff hitter mentality.

The other thing is, that might not even matter.

Lack of Plate Discipline

Harrison has always been walk-adverse, but his 2016 season has been one for the record books. His 3.4 percent walk rate on the year ranks dead last among qualified National League hitters. That rate also serves as his lowest since becoming a regular, with a 4.2 percent rate last season and a 4.0 rate in 2014.

A peak at some other plate discipline-related peripherals further paint Harrison’s self-portrait of an aggressive hitter.

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More than standard walk/strikeout rates, these peripherals greatly help us understand Harrison’s approach.

His O-Swing (swings at pitches outside of the zone) has always been well above the MLB average, and his 2016 rate is right in line with his career. However, he tempers that with a Swinging-Strike (aka, whiffs) percentage that is more or less in line with MLB averages. Despite being just average at swinging and missing, Harrison still winds up with nearly seven percent more first strikes than the average MLB hitter.

How can Harrison remain effective at the leadoff spot with such a loose temperament?

Decisiveness is Key

For Harrison, the key to not allowing his bad habits to affect his at-bats has been decisiveness.

Over the past three years, Harrison has seen pitches in the zone at least four percent more than the MLB average of 45 percent. Accordingly, he is decisive at offering at this pitches, with a Z-Swing (swings at pitches inside the zone) of at least 66.4 over the past three seasons, including an incredible 74.7 percent in 2016. The MLB average for this metric is 65 percent.

Thus, getting into an 0-1 count, or behind the count in general, might not hurt Harrison – and by extension, the Pittsburgh Pirates – as much as other hitters. In fact, in 2016 Harrison slashes .250/.266/.349 after an 0-1 count.  That doesn’t necessarily leap off of the page until you realize that the 2016 National League as a whole is hitting .219/.264/.342. Harrison’s batting average is considerably better than the NL cumulative, while on-base and slugging fall right in line.

Harrison simply hunts good pitches to hit – his percentage of pitches seen inside the zone is six percent above MLB average –  and that helps him minimize the affects that his “bad habits” take on his at -bats.

No Better Options

Of course, all of this would be moot if the Pittsburgh Pirates were still getting the John Jaso that they saw in April. Designated from the beginning of the season as the preferred option to leadoff against LHP, Jaso has been locked in a summer swoon with no end in sight.  That blows the door wide open for Harrison to step in and perhaps provide the team a much-needed spark. If not that, then perhaps he provides a baseball version of a ‘puncher’s chance,’ stepping into the box and being aggressive from the start.

That approach has worked so far for Harrison despite some peripherals that say otherwise. His overall on base percentage of .298 in 2016 leaves a lot to be desired. But for a Pittsburgh Pirates team that needs a spark to chase down a Wild Card spot, that figure can be tossed aside in the hopes that keeping Harrison at leadoff for the time being would be something akin to a fresh start for the fan favorite.

Featured Photo Credit – Jon Dawson vis Flickr Creative Commons