Pittsburgh Pirates Wake Up Call: Buyer’s remorse?

In our daily Wake-Up Call, we get you ready for the day with a complete look at all things Pittsburgh Pirates.

As the Pittsburgh Pirates plot their course for 2018 and beyond, the club finds itself with cost certainty at many positions. The team earned that cost certainty by continuing to offer shrewd extensions to their players well before necessary, and often before those players even become arbitration eligible. The most famous case, of course, is the extension signed by Andrew McCutchen, which has still provided great value to the club even considering McCutchen’s down season in 2016.

Since then, the club has signed Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco and even Jose Tabata to similar extensions. We know how Tabata worked out. Now, with the club seemingly looking to re-tool on the fly by looking to trade Gerrit Cole, it becomes fair to ask if the Pittsburgh Pirates regret having these contracts hanging over their heads.

Is there any buyer’s remorse at play from the club’s perspective? Let’s take a brief look at each individual extension and attempt to answer that question.

NOTE: for the purposes of this exercise, I will be using the July 2017 estimates of dollars per WAR as seen on FanGraphs. Please do take some time and read Matt Swartz’s original piece explaining how he arrived at these numbers. For now, here’s a snapshot look at his findings:

Marte

Even before his suspension for PEDs in 2017, the dynamic Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder was providing great return on his 6-year/ $31 million dollar (or perhaps more with team options) extension. From 2014 through 2016, Marte posted three straight seasons with at least 3.4 fWAR, and even managed to put together a 1.2 fWAR rating in his shortened 2017. If we put that in dollar terms in line with FanGraphs’ estimates, he provided $100.13 million dollars of value for about $14 million.

While it is important to remember that these estimates are not real-life figures, a discrepancy of that magnitude is hard to ignore. Prior to 2017, Marte also posted wRC+ rates that were significantly higher than league average, highlighted by a 132 rating in 2014.

Assuming that Marte can put 2017 behind him and come back to the club with a fresh outlook with similar production as in previous years to match, the Pittsburgh Pirates will continue to get great value on his extension.

Harrison

Things get a little dicier with Harrison, who is a player many teams would love to have. But for the Pittsburgh Pirates, paying Harrison $10.25 million in 2018 might not be so appealing.

Harrison has been in the middle of a 4- year, $27.3 million deal with two club options. From 2015 through 2017, Harrison has put 5.2 fWAR against $16.05 million in salary. Those figures represent great value for the Pirates, however things will change very quickly in 2018. Assuming Harrison can post something akin to a 2.0 fWAR, he will still provide fair market value in terms of WAR for dollars. However, the Pittsburgh Pirates enter into these extensions with the goal of getting more for less. In that light, the club might experience some buyer’s remorse in 2018, but likely has no regrets about the extension to date.

Cervelli

Cervelli’s 3-year/$31 million extension signed off the heels of a 3.7 fWAR season in 2015 was lauded by some and critiqued by others, mainly due to the catcher’s injury history. Since signing, he has missed his share of games, appearing in just 182 over the 2016-2017 seasons.

Even so, Cervelli provided 2.5 fWAR combined, 1.6 of which came in his 2016 season. That year, Cervelli took home $3.5 million, providing the Pittsburgh Pirates with great value. However, Cervelli’s contract rose sharply in 2017 to $9 million, and it will rise again to $10.5 million in 2018 and $11.5 million in 2019.

Cervelli would have to produce at a high rate for the club as well as stay healthy in 2019 for the club to get fair value, both tall orders. The team likely felt the pressure to lock down a productive catcher with Elias Diaz clearly not ready for a full time role, but would certainly walk back this contract — or at the very least, the dollar amount — if they could.

Polanco

Polanco’s extension is maddeningly frustrating to judge, much like the player himself. Signed to a five-year, $35 million option in 2016, Polanco will still remain an affordable option for the Pittsburgh Pirates against his production.

Prior to his injury-shortened 0.5 fWAR 2017 season, Polanco posted 2.4 fWAR in 2016 and 2.1 in 2015. Many were excited with his 22 home-run/106 wRC+ campaign in 2016, only to be disappointed with his 2017 results.

Owed just $4.1 million in 2018 followed up by $6.1 million in 2019, it would be awfully hard for Polanco not to provide fair return provided he is healthy. Despite his lack of production in 2017 — El Coffee was lukewarm with a wRC+ of 81 last season — the 26 year old did improve his strikeout rate by about six full percentage points. The issue with Polanco in 2017 came from two pretty significant outliers.

First, his first-strike percentage rose sharply to 61.8 percent, up from 53.5 percent the year prior. His hard-hit rate also dropped to 25.9 percent, the lowest since his rookie year, and down almost 10 full percentage points from his 2016 mark (35.7 percent).

Those are significant orders of variance, and both should course-correct to a value that would, at the very least, set Polanco up to succeed. Make no mistake, he will have to produce, and produce consistently, for the Pittsburgh Pirates to see any success in 2018, but for now his contract still provides tremendous value.

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