Playing the ‘if’ game with the AAC in 2016

It’s time to play the “IF” game.

IF Houston, the runaway favorite of the American Athletic Conference for the upcoming 2016 season, stumbles along the way perhaps from an injury to a key player or a secondary that just can’t gel as the season progresses, then who might be the team that dethrones the Cougars?

IF there were to be a different champion from the American this year, who might it be? IF Houston fails to win the West, who would be the prime candidate to do so? In order to make these decisions, I looked at the number of returning starters, conference schedules, and my own gut (which usually only steers me wrong at all-you-can-eat buffets).

Here are some possible dark horse scenarios for the AAC in 2016:

If Houston stumbles in the AAC Championship Game, the South Florida Bulls will be the AAC Champions

USF has a strong team this year, gets back 14 starters, and has a fairly favorable schedule (games against Navy and Connecticut are at home and it avoids Houston and Tulsa from the West). The Bulls do have to travel to Temple and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati returns only four starters on offense and that, coupled with an open quarterback competition, points to a down year. UConn returns the most starters of any competitive team in the AAC, but has to travel to both Houston and South Florida. Temple should be good again this year and returns a balanced team, but did lose all-American linebacker Tyler Matakevich and could be shaky on defense. Like South Florida, it avoids Houston and Tulsa, and gets UConn at home.

The Owls also get South Florida at home, which could be the difference maker — if the game was in November. As is, an early October game might not give Temple the winter weather to slow down the USF offense if its defense cannot.

If Houston stumbles in the regular season, the Navy Midshipmen will make the championship (but lose to South Florida)

It was essentially a coin flip between Navy and Tulsa. Navy lost QB Keenan Reynolds and several other starters on offense. The schedule, however, favors the Midshipmen, who have both Tulsa and Houston at home. I actually think Tulsa has a better chance of beating Houston than Navy, but I had to go with the more stable team with the proven head coach.

If Houston loses to Oklahoma and/or Louisville but wins the American, the Boise State Broncos will represent the Group of Five in the Cotton Bowl

Boise State seems like the easy choice, but it will face stiff competition this year from San Diego State. The Broncos get the benefit of home-field advantage this year. I don’t think any AAC team other than Houston has a chance at an undefeated season, though I can’t completely rule out South Florida. I don’t see any C-USA or Sun Belt team as a potential undefeated threat (though I was tempted to pick my alma mater Marshall). Toledo and Northern Illinois seem to be the best in the MAC, but Toledo has to travel to Provo to play BYU and Northern Illinois has to travel to South Florida. If either team gets by that competition, the rest of the schedule favors them.

Bonus: A true dark horse

Some would argue that South Florida and Navy should rightly be favored as strong candidates to win the American. That being said, a true dark horse candidate to win the conference would be the UConn Huskies. UConn has 16 returning starters, and while the schedule is not kind, if they play well, their defense could keep them in nearly every game this season.