It’s pretty crazy to think about how much has changed since the Jackets last playoff appearance. Steve Mason was the savior. Rick Nash was the franchise. Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek were the future. RJ Umberger looked like a steal. Mike Commodore and Jan Hejda were a beloved shutdown pair. Ken Hitchcock was coaching them up. Scott Howson looked like a genius. Well Mason is the savior in Philadelphia. Nash is the franchise in New York. Jakub Voracek and Derick Brassard are the present in New York and Philadelphia. Mike Commodore is somewhere. Jan Hejda is a beloved shutdown defender in Colorado. Ken Hitchcock is coaching up St. Lous. And if you are paying attention, Scott Howson actually still looks like a pretty good GM. Make no mistake, this is Howson’s team. He brought nearly every single player on this roster into the organization. The most prominent player expected to play in this series that was a Jarmo/JD pickup is probably Blake Comeau. Both goaltenders were Howson pickups. Seven of the eight defensemen who might see time were Howson pickups (Nick Schultz being the exception). Comeau, Jack Skille and Corey Tropp are the only Jarmo pickups at forward (plus the injured Nathan Horton). I’ve already dwelled on this more than I planned on, I just wanted to make sure it was out there that this team was built by Howson. Moving on.
The Pittsburgh Penguins. Funny how the Jackets first two playoff opponents have been Detroit and Pittsburgh. I know some fans are concerned about Pens fans taking over the building. Think back on that last playoff series, and remember the atmosphere. Nationwide was rocking with CBJ fans, and I expect the same this time around. If Detroit fans couldn’t overtake the rink, I don’t see how it should be much different this time. As for the on-ice product, I expect this to be a very close series. At even strength at least. The two teams are actually very close when it comes to 5v5 play. In shots for percentage, they rank 13th (Pittsburgh) and 14th (Columbus). In Fenwick Close, they rank 12th (Columbus) and 16th (Pittsburgh). In Corsi Close, they rank 13th (CBJ) and 16th (Pit). In goals for percentage, they rank 8th (Pit) and 12th (CBJ). On other words, the Jackets are slightly better at controlling the play, while the Penguins score a tiny bit more. Which makes sense, considering the talent they have, as Crosby, Malkin, and others have shown they (and their linemates) can consistently score on more of their shots than league average. But then again, the Jackets have Bobrovsky. Like I said, this should be a very close series at even strength. Pittsburgh has been quite a bit better on special teams than Columbus. So on the surface, the edge lies with the Penguins. Let’s look deeper, comparing the forwards, defense, goaltending, and special teams. And maybe we’ll see how the Jackets might be able to pull of the upset.
Forwards
Chris Kunitz – Sidney Crosby – Lee Stempniak
Jussi Jokinen – Evgeni Malkin – James Neal
Beau Bennett – Brandon Sutter – Brian Gibbons
Tanner Glass – Craig Adams – Jayson Megna/Taylor Pyatt
Those lines are an educated guess, as the Penguins have been so banged up this year they haven’t been able to roll out a steady group of lines. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bennett in place of Stempniak, but the rest of those lines probably roll out very similarly. There is also a chance that Marcel Goc returns during the series and knocks Gibbons out of the top nine. The Penguins have been ridiculously banged up this season (most man games lost to injury last I saw), but they are getting healthy at the right time. Among forwards, Goc and Pascal Dupuis are the only notable players remaining injured and Goc is just past the two week mark for a lower body injury that was expected to keep him out for three weeks. The Jackets on the other hand are going the other way. Nathan Horton is likely out for the playoffs. RJ Umberger and Nick Foligno won’t be ready for the start of the playoffs. Those are very bad things. The Jackets rely on their depth, and comparing these forward groups when healthy, the Blue Jackets have much stronger third and fourth lines. But remove three top nine forwards from the mix, and suddenly the top six gap is even bigger, and the third and fourth lines are comparable.
Looking at the above chart (per the fantastic Extra Skater), you see a distinct difference in how the Penguins and Jackets have used their most skilled forwards. The Penguins give all their skilled guys (Crosby, Kunitz, Malkin, Neal, Jokinen, Bennett) offensive zone starts, but they play tough competition. They are all very awesome though. Their depth guys get hit with the defensive zone starts, but since the top guys are drawing the better players the lower end players get easier minutes. They still get crushed though. It’s a smart approach, and takes advantage of having two top five players on one team. Their best players get the offensive minutes, and they force the opponents top guys to play defense. They are confident that their top guys in offensive minutes will outscore the opponents best players in defensive minutes by more than the opponents depth guys will outscore their own depth guys. In other words, the Penguins use their forwards in a way that dictates the match-ups. Their best guys are getting their offensive zone touches, and the opponent can either counter with their best players, or they can put their fourth liners out versus Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin. Considering this, I’d expect to see Ryan Johansen and Brandon Dubinsky get the Crosby/Malkin challenge. Which makes even more sense when you look at how the Jackets have used their forwards.
This is like the complete opposite of the Penguins chart (Nathan Horton excluded). Todd Richards likes to rely on his better players to shut down the opposing team in the defensive zone, and shelter the weaker players. These two forward groups are a great example of the issue surrounding the use of the word “sheltered” when it comes to analyzing zone starts. Generally, it is used for any player who starts the majority of his shifts in the offensive zone. This is dumb. Jared Boll/Corey Tropp/Matt Frattin/etc. are sheltered. They cannot be trusted defensively, so they get offensive zone starts to keep them out of the defensive end. That is being sheltered. Calling James Neal/Evgeni Malkin/etc. sheltered is just plain dumb. They get a majority of the offensive zone starts because they are lethal offensive players, and putting them out there like that increases the time they get to spend trying to score.
Now that isn’t to say I disapprove (totally) of how Richards uses his best forwards. It more highlights the differences between having Crosby and Malkin in comparison to Johansen and Dubinsky. The bigger issue I have is with giving those precious offensive zone starts to crappy players who aren’t going to do anything with them. I’d rather see Johansen and Anisimov get the Crosby/Malkin minutes, Dubinsky/MacKenzie get the d-zone treatment, and Tropp/Boll/Skille/Frattin replaced with players who can be trusted defensively. But that is besides the point. I think what we end up seeing is the Penguins big guns versus the Jackets big guns. Here’s the best part about this though: Johansen/Dubinsky don’t need to necessarily shut down, or even equal the output of Crosby/Malkin. They just need to not get beat by more than the Jackets depth guys beat the Penguins depth guys. Missing Umberger and Foligno hurts, but now instead of having two lines with big advantages, they have one line with an advantage, and one line that should break even. I like the chances of a Letestu/Anisimov led third line against the Sutter line. I don’t even hate the MacKenzie/Boll/Tropp/Frattin/Skille/whoever crapfest of a fourth line against the Adams/Megna/Pyatt/Glass/whoever crapfest that Pittsburgh will trot out. Now imagine Umberger and Foligno are back in the lineup, and the Jackets can get a few games of Comeau-MacKenzie-Letestu feeding on the Pens fourth line crapfest. The third line is even better, and feasts on the Pens’ Sutter line. The Johansen and Dubinsky lines would then be even stronger and better suited to matching the Crosby/Malkin lines.
Note: Yes, I didn’t spend much time talking about the wingers, and often referred to specific centers versus specific centers. When I am doing this, I am referring to that line. When discussing lines and match-ups, this is very, very common. Coaches never yell out “Calvert, Dubinsky, Atkinson, you’re up next!” They just say “Dubinsky, you’re up!” It would be exhausting to go through the entire line every time, or refer to it as “the Dubinsky line”. It’s just “Dubinsky”. But it means the whole line. Carry on.
Defense
Rob Scuderi – Kris Letang
Paul Martin – Brooks Orpik
Olli Maata – Matt Niskanen
Like their forwards, the Penguins are getting healthy on defense at exactly the right time. Kris Letang and Paul Martin, arguably their two best defensemen, have combined to miss over a full seasons worth of games this year. Rob Scuderi has missed almost 30 games. That is half of their top six, and three of their top four missing well over 100 games. But they are all healthy now, and their defense pairings are eerily similar to the Blue Jackets. Scuderi-Letang is Murray-Wisniewski. Martin-Orpik is Johnson-Tyutin. Maata-Niskanen is Nikitin-Savard/Prout. This becomes even more glaring when looking at their usage charts.
Like I said, strangely similar. Martin and Orpik are Johnson and Tyutin. They get the toughest minutes in both zone starts and competition. Martin and Tyutin break even, while Orpik and Johnson are negatives. But they aren’t expected to be positives out there at even strength. They are the trauma department: they try to keep the bleeding to a minimum, so the rest of the team can clean up the mess. In a nice little twist, the Jackets second unit looks quite a big better than the Penguins second unit. Wiz was significantly better than Letang this year, and in slightly tougher minutes. Murray is a much better version of Scuderi (the responsible one paired with the offensively skilled risk-taker). Finally, you have the third pairing. I would be rolling with Nikitin-Savard. They have faced slightly tougher competition than Niskanen-Maata, which may be partly responsible for being a little behind them in terms of how successful they were. Niskanen and Maata had very good years, piling up most of their points at even strength. I think this pair the the spot that will make or break the series. I think the top two pairs end up being a wash. If the Jackets can rattle the young rookie Maata (maybe seeing Corey Tropp again will give him nightmares about this), and put some pressure on Niskanen, I think they can be handled. Similarly, Savard needs to keep his composure, and Nikitin needs to be the reliable version he is sometimes, and avoid being the mess he can be at other times. I would expect that pair to see a lot of either Crosby/Malkin (Johnson-Tyutin can’t play against both lines), so they will need to be sharp, keep their game simple, and focus on making the right plays in getting the puck out of the Jackets zone.
Goaltending
This will be interesting. Sergei Bobrovsky has been significantly better than Marc-Andre Fleury over the last two seasons (.926 for Bob, .915 for Fleury). That is pretty much the difference between an elite starter and a league average starter. This is the point where I’m supposed to point out how bad Fleury has been in the playoffs. Yes, he has been bad the last few years, putting up sub-.900 save percentages in four consecutive playoffs. However, Bob is no sure thing. Remember, his poor play in the playoffs was a major factor in the Flyers bringing in Ilya Bryzgalov to replace him. And poor play is putting it kindly. Bob’s career playoff save percentage is a staggeringly low .848. That is bad. Like lose your job, never find again bad. For as bad as Fleury has been, he still has a .908 career playoff save percentage, and only one playoff with worse numbers than Bob’s career numbers. So this match up should be an advantage for the Jackets, but it is no guarantee. Yes, it’s possible that Bob will be great in the playoffs, but remember too that Fleury has backstopped a team to a Stanley Cup, and has a playoff run of 20 games played in which he put up a .933. Those aren’t in the same season either.
Powerplay vs. Penalty Kill
The Penguins had the most lethal powerplay in the league this year. They managed to accomplish that even though Kris Letang missed half the year, and Evgeni Malkin missed a quarter of it. The Jackets meanwhile had a middle of the road penalty kill. I do like the match-up in terms of how both teams operate. The Penguins like to work off of the half-wall, where Crosby controls the play and looks for options to make themselves available. And boy, do they have options. The best look has Malkin on the point, James Neal down low, Chris Kunitz finding space in the slot, and Kris Letang working the backdoor/weakside one-timer. From this look Crosby and Malkin play with the puck, which suckers teams in, creates gaps in the coverage, and opens up passing and shooting lanes for the other members of the team. Check out this goal against Nashville for how dangerous this can be, how much they like to move around, and how the options come available.
However, the Jackets like to mix up the looks of their forwards, varying their rotations, and causing havoc up high (and take away the Malkin shot like in that clip). I think this can work well here, as long as they avoid being too aggressive, and the defense stays calm, doesn’t panic when Neal/Kunitz/Letang find open ice, and the d-men stay in the shooting lanes. Focus on keeping Crosby and Malkin outside and up high playing with the puck, don’t worry about the less scary players finding space BUT stay in their shooting lanes, and hope that Sergei Bobrovsky, the best penalty killer on either team, can help neutralize things. The Penguins scored four powerplay goals on the Jackets this season: a screened point shot that was tipped in (of a faceoff play), a weakside one-timer from Letang that snuck through Bob, a weakside one-timer from Kunitz, and a rebound off a shot from the half-wall. Three of them featured defense getting themselves out of position chasing too hard (the other goal featured a ridiculous Kunitz tip that he pulled off while being manhandled). Limit the chaos, and they have a chance.
Penalty Kill vs. Powerplay
Similar to the prior match-up I discussed, the Penguins also have an advantage here. The Pens finished the year with the fifth best penalty kill in the league, while the Jackets were 11th on the powerplay. Sadly, the Jackets powerplay only cashed in once on the Penguins this year. However, it shows exactly how the Jackets powerplay works best and how they need to beat the Penguins.
Puck movement to the point, puck movement between defensemen, moving the entire setup from side to side, point men bombing away, and traffic in front. This is what the Jackets like to do, but it is especially important in this match-up. Marc-Andre Fleury is an incredible athlete, but he can have trouble tracking the puck, and trouble keeping his positioning sound when forced to move around. He’s great at making quick movements side-to-side, but the Jackets rarely look for weakside one-timers. Instead, I’d like to see the Jackets move the puck quickly from one side of the ice, back to the d-man, then to the other d-man, then bomb a quick shot. That forces the goaltender to reposition several times, while following the puck through traffic on multiple passes, and a shot. That is how you take advantage of Fleury. Unfortunately, the Penguins rely on Brooks Orpik and Rob Scuderi quite heavily, and both of them are very good at clearing paths in front of the net. It would be very nice to have Nathan Horton, Nick Foligno, and RJ Umberger in the lineup, as they excel at those battles. Instead, the Jackets are going to need Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, and Matt Calvert to strap in and hunker down in front of Fleury.
How the Jackets Can Beat the Penguins
I covered a lot of it during each separate segment above, but I’m going to summarize it all right here. At even strength, the Johansen/Dubinsky versus Crosby/Malkin match-ups need to come out to near a wash. These will predominantly start in the defensive zone, and predominantly feature the Johnson-Tyutin and Scuderi-Letang defense pairings. The Jackets defense need to keep things simple, keep the Penguins forwards to the outside, and get the puck out of the zone by any means possible. This also means the forwards need to be collapsing defensively, and getting after the puck in the neutral zone.
The Anisimov/Letestu/MacKenzie lines need to outscore the Sutter/Adams units. This is where the Murray-Wisniewski pairing needs to really shine. The Martin-Orpik pairing will feature prominently here as well. I think there is a pretty good chance this all plays out like this and the teams end up fairly even at 5v5. The Jackets powerplay is going to need quick passing, puck movement from side-to-side, one-time point shots, and plenty of traffic in from of Fleury.
On the penalty kill, the forwards need to be aggressive but patient on Crosby and Malkin, the defense needs to not chase the puck, avoid chasing the Penguins moving without the puck, and worry more about being in shooting lanes than picking up the open guys. This is probably the toughest task. It will requite an extreme amount of discipline, particularly from Jack Johnson, who plays a ton of PK minutes and is prone to chasing. It will also require a a herculean effort from Sergei Bobrovsky. Goaltenders are always the most important penalty killers. If Bob and the Jackets can win the battle on the PK, and Fleury can help the Jackets win the battle in the PP, then the CBJ should be able to come away with a victory in this series.
I hope this doesn’t come across sounding dire. I really think the Jackets have a legitimate chance to take this series. At even strength the games should be very even. On special teams, a great performance by Bob and a bad one by Fleury could easily swing what looks like a big advantage for the Pens into a slight one for the Jackets. While this is a tougher match-up than facing New York or Philadelphia, this is a much better match-up for the Jackets than their last playoff series. That Red Wings team was stronger than this Penguins team, and this Jackets team is better than that old Jackets team. Maybe they won’t win the series, bu I fully expect the Jackets to make is a series.
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