Playoff scenarios with one game left

With 81 games played, there is still a stunning lack of playoff clarity going into the final game. As of right now, there are only two teams locked into their seeding: Toronto in 3rd and Washington in 4th. Here’s how the rest of it can go:

Let’s start with the simple:

Boston gets the top seed with a win over Milwaukee or a Cavs loss. If the Celtics lose and the Cavs win, they will be tied and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker so Boston will fall to second.

That’s the easy part.

Now, who would the Celtics play?

The 5-8 seeding is still a complete mess. Here’s the breakdown straight from the league office:

Atlanta will be seeded:

• #5 if Hawks win at least one of their remaining games OR if Pacers and Bucks lose (Atlanta is the only remaining East playoff team with two games left)
• #7 if Hawks lose both games and Bucks win

Milwaukee will be seeded:

• #5 if Bucks win and Hawks lose both games
• #6 if Hawks win at least one of their remaining games OR if Bucks lose

Indiana will be seeded:

• #6 if Pacers win, Hawks lose to Hornets and Bucks win
• #7 if Pacers win and Hawks beat Hornets OR if Pacers win, Bucks lose and Hawks lose to Hornets OR if Pacers lose and Heat and Bulls both lose
• #8 if Pacers lose and either Bulls or Heat win (but not both)
• ELIMINATED if Pacers lose and both Bulls and Heat win

Chicago will be seeded:

• #7 if Bulls win and Pacers lose
• #8 if Bulls win and Pacers win OR if Bulls lose and Heat lose
•  ELIMINATED if Bulls lose and Heat win

Miami will be seeded:

•  #7 if Heat win and Pacers and Bulls lose
•  #8 if Heat and Bulls win and Pacers lose OR if Heat and Pacers win and Bulls lose
•  ELIMINATED if Bulls and Pacers win OR Heat lose

The TL/DR version:

Chances are pretty good Atlanta is going to be the 5th seed and Milwaukee 6th.

7th and 8th are still way up in the air. If the Hawks beat Charlotte tonight and clinch 5th, they may rest against the Pacers tomorrow night. That would increase the chances of Indy clinching 7th. Chicago plays Brooklyn on the final night of the season while Miami has Washington. The Wizards are locked into their spot, so they’ll be resting guys for that game. Brooklyn will be playing hard to be the spoiler and Chicago is banged up… so there’s no guarantee there.

I still think the Bulls do it and Miami gets eliminated. That’s my gut, but there are games tonight we’ll see if that clarifies anything.