A few of last year’s lottery teams are off to strong starts, and we all should have seen it coming.
Last week I wrote about a few teams that hadn’t exactly started their seasons off the right way. This, I realized later, was a bit unfair. Cleveland, Washington, and New Orleans have reasons to be concerned, but compared to the teams from New York should have little reason for worry (okay I’m lying but work with me). The Knicks are stumbling without their best defensive player (much to Denver’s delight), and Brooklyn looks like a heaping pile of radioactive waste, which has Jason Kidd in a dark place. Point being, I highly underestimated the warning signs coming from New York City.
But enough about that. While a number of teams and the entire Atlantic Division struggle to win games, there are a couple of teams heralding from last year’s lottery that have things moving in the right direction.
We start in Portland, where the Trail Blazers are currently 10-2 and second in the Western Conference. Currently on an eight game winning streak, we can first look to the stellar play of LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard as part of the winning formula. Aldridge is averaging a team best 22.5 points and 9.0 rebounds a game, while Lillard is averaging 19.9 points and a team best 5.8 assists a game. These two were expected to lead the team as they did last season, but whereas last year they had no support beyond the starting five, this year’s roster is deeper and more in tune with their playing style. J.J. Hickson is gone, replaced by true center Robin Lopez. While not the offensive threat that his twin brother is, Lopez is averaging a respectable 7.3 points and 7.8 rebounds a game while providing solid post defense. Mo Williams replaces Eric Maynor, providing more offensive off the bench (10.1 ppg). New rotation players Thomas Robinson and Dorrell Wright have also contributed, with Wright averaging 45% from three. Starting two guard Wes Matthews has been on fire, averaging 15.9 points a game but more impressively shooting 54% from the field and 50% from three (on 66 attempts). And of course there is Nicolas Batum, whose all around game holds the roster together.
While I’m not high on Lillard and Williams playing together, as neither seem to work well off the ball while the other handles it, I think Williams and the other new pieces add the depth Portland needed to be a playoff team. Adding C.J. McCollum to the mix once he returns from injury should be a positive as well.
The 10-2 record, particular the eight game winning streak, is impressive, but Portland haven’t really been tested beyond beating Denver and San Antonio on a back-to-back. They will start another one this weekend, playing at home to Chicago and then on the road against Golden State on Saturday. Win both of those, and it may be almost appropriate to begin floating the “contender” tag around.
Staying out west, the Dallas Mavericks have also had a strong start, sitting at 8-4 and second in the Southwest Division. Leading the way in both points and assists (yes, assists) is Monta Ellis, who is averaging 23.3 points and 5.7 assists a game. This past Wednesday he torched the Rockets, scoring 37 points on (wait for it), 13-18 shooting while tailing 8 assists. This year’s Monta Ellis is still scoring as he’s accustomed to, but at a more efficient rate. By comparison, through 14 games last year Ellis was shooting 41%, while through 12 this year he shooting nearly 50% (.495).
Dirk’s is off to a strong start as well, averaging 20.6 points and 6.0 rebounds a game, also shooting a high percentage at 49%. Jose Calderon, who like Ellis was also signed this offseason, is averaging a 11 points and 5.4 assists while shooting 47% from three.
I was skeptical about Ellis joining Dallas (or any team for that matter). He’s a volume scorer, but historically teams have struggled when they made him the focus of the offense. Dallas however, seems to have figured how to successfully utilize his skill set so far. Rick Carlisle should take some credit, but playing next to Calderon may also have something to do with it, since for the first time in his career, Ellis is playing next to pass first point guard, whereas before he was alongside Baron Davis, Stephen Curry, or Brandon Jennings. Maybe all Ellis needed was the right fit.
Where Dallas has really taken advantage of is their home court. All eight of their wins have come at home, and while it may sound concerning that they haven’t won on the road, those four losses have been to Houston, OKC, Minnesota, and Miami. If Dallas continues to make their home court a fortress, it will bode well once they start to win games on the road.
Finally there is Minnesota, who started the season off hot, winning their first three games of the season (including a beat down of OKC). The Timberwolves have left things to be desired in recent years, largely due to injuries to Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio. If those two had remained healthy last season the Wolves could have made the playoffs, taking advantage of the number of times the Lakers restarted their season before finally putting it together. Love’s inclusion has produced instance results, leading the team in points and rebounds a game at 25.4 points and 13.3 rebounds. Not to be overlooked however is Kevin Martin’s start, who through 12 games is averaging 23.6 points a game. Rubio is averaging nearly nine assists a game, Pekovic is averaging a respectable 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, and the Wolves are getting good production from J.J Barea and Corey Brewer.
While the Wolves started strong at 6-3, they have since dropped three of four. As long as Love and Rubio are healthy they will continue to compete, but they enter a tough five game stretch, playing Brooklyn, at Houston, Indiana, Denver, and at Dallas. Fortunately, none of these games are part of a back to back, but it will be the biggest test Minnesota has had all season.
These three aren’t the only teams off to decent starts, but my time is winding down. Quick shout outs to Charlotte, Phoenix, and Philadelphia, who each looked destined for the bottom of the lottery, but have played well in stretches. Charlotte is 6-6 and Al Jefferson has only been involved in one of those wins. Credit to Steve Clifford for getting them to play defense (they currently rank 4th in points allowed). Phoenix, who many predicted would look for creative ways to tank it this year, are 5-6, led by a breakout year from Eric Bledsoe and, of all people, Miles Plumlee. Philadelphia has cooled down since their wild 3-0 start, but credit the Sixers for their 5-8 start when many predicted it would take months for them just to get to five wins. Getting Michael Carter-Williams back is key, but respect is due to Evan Turner, who is averaging a career high 21.3 points a game.
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