The sky is falling, the waves are crashing over us, and the earth is crumbling below our feet.
For Portland Trail Blazers fans, this is the end of days. Again. Or something like that.
But before you go face first into your morning cereal, try to keep in mind that nothing bad is actually happening. Sure, 80% of the starting lineup is gone, and the assumed marquee player/franchise building block is gone with them. Or is he?
In the next 3-5 years, Damian Lillard has the chance to be one of the best players in the entire league and a great shot at a title, especially when guys like LeBron, Durant, Wade, LA, and Curry will be on the wrong side of 30 and Lillard will be at the peak of his powers.
Just because the names and numbers have changed, the outlook isn’t bleak, and it’s not a mixture of storm clouds and fire and brimstone. It’s raining now, sure, but that’s the Pacific Northwest for you, even in the hottest time of the year. The truth is that the extended forecast calls for a bright future in the Rose City, and it won’t be that difficult to see why once you put on the right shades.
To tackle this tough topic, Oregon Sports News Senior Writers Bryant Knox and Casey Mabbott teamed up to embark on a two-part debate, laying out two separate looks at the Blazers’ past and future. Here is Casey Mabbott’s look at the Blazers future.
A 2015 rebuild is actually a good thing, not a nightmare
Something to keep in mind as this latest roster shakeup goes forward is that LaMarcus Aldridge was never THE building block. He was supposed to be part of the foundation, but never THE foundation. Aldridge just does not appear to have the drive or personality to be “Atlas” when the time calls for it, at least not in the way that Clyde and Walton once did.
Now that doesn’t by any stretch of the imagination make LA a bad person or a bad player, it just means that he’s not a natural leader, and that’s fine. What it does mean is that entering LA’s 10th season and at the same time Damian Lillard’s fourth, and a shot at the title all but lost, it was time to build around the talented kid and his younger friends, rather than roll the dice to build very, very quickly around the aging vet and other aging vets.
If you thought that you had ever seen enough from Aldridge to think that he could really lead this team on a 102-110 game title run, well, maybe you were wearing blinders rather than shades. The harsh reality is that this team did not have the right pieces to win when facing the very best with everything on the line, the proof is right there in the San Antonio series last year and Memphis this year. The additions of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman made the team better in the regular season, but left them exposed in the postseason, yet again.
Say I gave you healthy roster and you change spots with Memphis and you’re in the second round against Golden State in the 2015 postseason, facing a team you couldn’t beat in three contests this season. Do you see them losing to Portland in a seven game series? This Portland team was going to face roadblocks they didn’t have ways to beat, that’s the honest truth. LA going elsewhere gives them a chance to face those same roadblocks in 3-5 years with a team ready to blast through them. It’s scary to scrap your plans and head back to the drawing board, but only if you’re unwilling to see change as a good thing that will help you build a stronger roster with a much wider title window.
Damian Lillard will replace Brandon Roy’s legacy, a feat LaMarcus Aldridge never was never going to accomplish.
Try to remember that you proudly wore a #7 jersey and wondered if this team was doomed when #12 took the reins, and I don’t seriously believe that anyone felt that LA was going to lead this team to a title, while I do believe that some wonder just how far a healthy Roy could have led the same franchise with a similar cast in the last three seasons. Imagine if a healthy Roy and Lillard had shared the court together, we all may have seen the Drexler and Jordan dreams come true in the Rose City. The truth is, Aldridge didn’t want to become Lillard’s sidekick, even though that was clearly the way the situation was headed. Lillard has that same “do or die” gene in him that Roy did, whereas Aldridge seemed to pick and choose his moments, often feeling slighted if he didn’t get the ball in crucial moments or if he denied attention and any of his teammates welcomed it in his stead. Lillard is the happy version of Aldridge who doesn’t need to be reassured, and he’s the healthy version of Roy this city wanted all along. Now this is Lillard’s team, but without the leadership conflict and we’ll see how far he takes it.
Given two seasons as a starter, Meyers Leonard will be one of the best young power forwards in the game.
It’s impossible to ignore the flashes Leonard showed in the 2014-15 season and the playoff series against Memphis. He showed he has the potential to be a starter in this league and while it may not be at center as the team originally envisioned, that’s just fine. Entering his fourth season, as a third year player he logged averages of shooting 51% from the field, 93% from the free throw line, one trey per game on 42% shooting from down-town, and averaged six points and five rebounds, all on 15 minutes per game. Imagine if those minutes doubled, and the rest of his numbers spiked as well, does that not show immense promise? They have a term for nightly double-double threats who can knock down free throws and help spread the floor by shooting at a high percentage from beyond the arc: NBA All-Star.
There’s nothing that Nic Batum did really well that Al-Farouq Aminu cannot contribute
It’s no accident that Aminu wound up here. Take a guess who drafted him back in 2010? I’ll give you one hint: his name sounds an awful lot like Neil Olshey. Now, Olshey had to trade him to New Orleans in 2011 to get Chris Paul, but who can blame him. Aminu has work to do on his overall game, but is a more than capable defender who loves to grab rebounds and shoot the three. Give him a year or two, and he’ll be surprising you, and he won’t be gumming up the offensive gears or be a liability the way an unconfident and hesitant Batum ultimately became.
With this core, the Blazers will be title contenders in 2018-19.
In 2013, the Blazers lineup of Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, and Lopez with Mo Williams coming off the bench did not inspire many “experts,” yet they wound up leading the franchise to its first playoff series victory since 2000. Don’t be afraid to like this new team, but don’t expect the turnaround to happen in one season either. It’s going to take 2-3 seasons and some lucky breaks, but once Lillard and McCollum have a couple of years running the court together and are getting help defense from Aminu and second chance points from the established interior duo of Leonard and Plumlee, things will click. A deep bench of Tim Frazier, Allen Crabbe, Pat Connaughton, Maurice Harkless, Ed Davis, and Noah Vonleh, and as many as 5-6 first and second round draft selections in the next three years as well as three summers to lure smaller name free agents, and this team will be the next great contender, and they will have a wide title window to make it all count.
Bryant Knox Rebuttal:
The Blazers do have a chance to be title contenders in 2018-19. A good one, in fact. Only problem: It’s not going to be with the incumbent roster. Although you can expect to see more organic growth over the next three seasons than we’ve seen from Portland in quite some time, the only way this organization becomes a championship hopeful is through the use of a lopsided trade. That’s one of the brilliant parts about what Olshey has done this summer. He’s collected young assets that don’t swallow cap space, and really won’t over the next couple of years when the cap spikes.
Prepare yourselves now, Blazers fans. There’s a good chance we see a collection of your new favorite youngsters traded, but only after they’ve proven themselves worthy of their discount contracts. That’s when a rebuilding team will be willing to take on their potential, and that’s when Portland can capitalize on a franchise looking to ship out a star (first- or second-tier) to a team with cap space.
Casey Mabbott Closing Argument:
A blockbuster deal landing Portland another star wouldn’t hurt, but this team is headed for greatness with or without it and I’m drinking the Kool-Aid now. Of course you can’t expect greatness from all of your guys, and some players like Plumlee and Aminu are probably going to peak early and they’ll probably be dealt for picks or added depth down the road.
But the sky-high potential is there for Lillard, Leonard, and McCollum, and to some extent even Vonleh, and Olshey will want to keep them in that case. Crabbe, Davis, and Harkless are probably the odd men out when minutes and money get slim, but that’s the NBA for you, quality role players come and go. Another key draft pick or two added to the core of Lillard CJ & Leonard and this team becomes extremely dangerous over a 2-3 year span, especially if Olshey can continue to provide young and athletic reserve players.
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