Hindsight is 20/20. The past is in the past. The night is always darkest before the dawn.
These clichés will help Portland Trail Blazers fans cope with what’s happened during the 2015 NBA offseason. However, we’re here to break the rules and take a look back at what could have been if four-fifths of the starting lineup hadn’t found itself in new cities over the summer.
As Trail Blazers fans know all too well, this franchise is laden with “what-ifs.” Although what has taken place over the past few weeks pales in comparison to Sam Bowie’s knees, Greg Oden’s knees or, well, Brandon Roy’s knees, it’s true that Portland is now mourning the loss of what was seemingly something special brewing—and we’re not talking about beverages from the likes of Stumptown or Widmer.
To tackle this tough topic, Bryant Knox and Casey Mabbott teamed up to embark on a two-part debate, laying out two separate looks at the Blazers’ past and future.
CLICK HERE TO CHECK OUT CASEY MABBOTT’S LOOK AT THE BLAZERS’ FUTURE!
Were The Blazers A Legitimate Championship Contender Last Season?
The sad truth is that the Blazers were nowhere near contention by the time the 2015 postseason arrived. Wesley Matthews was sidelined with a ruptured Achilles, Arron Afflalo was also banged up and Damian Lillard’s defense never showed up, as he indicated it would to The Oregonian’s Jason Quick.
Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard and his defense make a playoff vow: ‘I’m going to show up’ http://t.co/50TwpuYte4
— Oregonian Sports (@OregonianSports) April 16, 2015
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsHealth really was the biggest factor, but depth was also a massive concern. Just the year before, Portland was run out of the gym by the San Antonio Spurs in the second round of the playoffs. That had almost everything to do with the fact that the second unit simply couldn’t keep up with the Spurs’ bench—a bench that was used to carrying the load on occasion because of Greg Poppovich’s system.
This group was even worse off than the team that got inalliated by the Spurs, and that’s just a fact. Need more proof? Look at the 1-4 series loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.
How Close Were The Blazers To Earning Contender Status?
This group was close when healthy. The Afflalo trade looks like a bust now, but it gave the Blazers a legitimate sixth man when both he and Matthews were able to see time on the court.
But the way the roster was constructed, this group was always going to be a second-tier contender. Even with Afflalo and Matthews suited up, the West is too competitive to make a claim that Portland was going to compete for a championship as previously constructed.
A potential new playoff format could have helped. The NBA is moving away from the current format that guarantees a division champion a top-four seed, and the hope is that this move is a precursor to a more balanced 1-16 structure, allowing the West to play the East throughout the postseason.
But that’s speculation. For the time being, it’s West-on-West crime leading to the championship. And the Blazers were going to struggle against the likes of the Spurs, Grizzlies and anyone else they faced in the better of the two conferences.
What Moves Could Have Been Made To Expedite That Process?
Step 1 to becoming a contender: Don’t let your best player walk. That’s obvious. The Blazers would be better off at this very moment if they hadn’t let LaMarcus Aldridge slip through their fingers.
The real issue here, though, was adding a bench. Portland’s starters have been run into the ground for the past three seasons. That was okay in 2013-14 with the team staying healthy, but when injuries hit this past season, none of the incumbent reserves were able to make up the difference.
The first move to help the bench was trading Nicolas Batum. This needed to happen regardless of what took place in free agency. He wasn’t worth what he was being paid, and swapping his contract for two or three modest salaries was always the best route to adding depth.
But following a minor bolster of the bench this offseason, the summer of 2016 would be where real improvements would’ve been made. With the ensuing cap spike, the Blazers would have been in a perfect situation. Everybody and their dogs will be chasing stars in 2016, but if Portland had its core locked up, it would be able to take that extra cap space and go for everyone’s Plan Bs right out of the gate.
It could have been a perfect scenario for the Blazers to finally do something about the bench, and the team wouldn’t have been forced to rid itself of any core pieces in the process.
That’s the biggest thing to take away from this offseason, as an admittedly improved bench next season ultimately came at the cost of a very productive core.
Should Portland Have Tried To Retain The Rest of the Core Knowing Aldridge Was Gone?
Here’s an unpopular opinion. You ready for it? The rest of the Trail Blazers’ core was not worth the money it received without Aldridge leading the way. This sentiment is a bit counterintuitive. Why not a pay player more money for more responsibility? That’s the wrong way of thinking about it. You pay them for the value they provide in their particular roles. Neither Matthews nor Lopez are worth what they got if Aldridge isn’t leading the way, and Neil Olshey said as much himself.
Olshey said Matthews and Lopez’s agents were notified early in process that their status was tied to Aldridge’s.
— Mike Tokito (@mtokito) July 9, 2015
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If Aldridge had stuck around, Matthews and Lopez would have been worth the premium Portland was ready to pay. Those two played so well with Aldridge on board, but they knew their roles, and those roles weren’t worthy of consideration as a No. 1 option.
Portland’s not down and out because it got rid of the entire group; it’s down for the moment because Aldridge left. Having your salary tied up in secondary and tertiary options makes no sense, and the team now has a chance to find those pieces with the youth movement it’s put in place for this coming season.
Casey Mabbott’s Rebuttal:
It would be very tough to say that Portland with a healthy starting five of Lillard, Matthews, Aminu, Aldridge, and Lopez and a bench of some combination of McCollum, Henderson, Afflalo, Gee, Vonleh, Plumlee, and Leonard would not be able to compete with the Western Conference. But imagine for a moment that the Blazers signed Aldridge to a five year deal this summer, Aldridge and Lillard both have July birthdays and are turning 30 and 25 this month, so your two stars would be 35 and 30 when both of their deals are up in 2020. Matthews would be 33, Lopez 32, and Aminu 29. It’s unlikely that Portland can retain McCollum and Leonard without starting them, so you may lose two of your best young players to keep aging vets and lose a chance to have players stick around who “grew up” with Lillard.
If that scenario works out for the best and everyone sticks around and Portland raises their second championship banner to the rafters, it will all be worth it. But suppose it doesn’t end that way, and Portland sticks around as a second tier team, not good enough to win a title, and not poor enough to get lottery players.
Right now Portland has five lottery players on their roster (Lillard, Leonard, McCollum, Vonleh, and Aminu) to help jump start the rebuild.If they wait until 2020 the chance exists that they’ll be in the same situation they are now, or even worse off with departing star veterans and no young lottery picks to start over with.
Bryant Knox’s Final Argument:
Having a plethora of young, promising players isn’t a death wish. Far from it, in fact. But it only works out if those players reach their potential, and it’s tough to see any of Lillard’s new running mates ever equaling the production that Aldridge provided in the post-Brandon Roy era.
All that said, a change was in order, and the team has set itself up nicely. The 2014-15 squad had seemingly already hit its ceiling; or more accurately, the 2013-14 team before it hit the ceiling first.
The Blazers won’t be contenders right away, and it will probably take a lopsided trade to reach that point in the next few years. But don’t feel bad, Blazers fans. The team wasn’t going to get there by returning its core.
The night is always darkest before the dawn. And while it may seem dark at the moment, taking a few steps back to eventually leap forward will be well worth it when it’s all said and done.
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