The Portland Trail Blazers and their fans are about to endure an agonizing month of pondering LaMarcus Aldridge’s future, but the truth is that there’s plenty of speculation to go around regarding the team’s other sought-after free agents.
Also deserving of headlines is Robin Lopez. The center was simply known as Brook’s twin brother before coming to Portland, but he’s made a name for himself entering an offseason that will see him earn a significant pay raise.
Oregon Sports News writers and Trail Blazers experts Casey Mabbott and Bryant Knox have weighed in on what’s next to come for Lopez and the Blazers, as well as what the big man’s role is on the team as it stands today.
There are more questions than answers at this point in the process, but that’s what these basketball scribes are here to address.
- Is Lopez a piece of the championship puzzle in Portland?
Casey Mabbott (CM): Great question. Do averages of 10 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game sound like a key contributor? Those are Lopez’s numbers as a two-year starter in the Rose City. He’s making a rather modest (by NBA standards) $5M per season, which is a bargain compared to other top centers, yet he’s the #31 rated center in the NBA according to John Hollinger’s player ratings.However, when you consider that Hollinger’s system has Hassan Whiteside and DeMarcus Cousins as the top centers in the game, with Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan as numbers four and nine, it’s entirely possible that you can be really good or even great without it showing up on paper.
All of that said, while he is a very good but not great center, and most likely the best suited fit for the Blazers’ preferred system, Lopez isn’t helping this team get past the thorns in their sides during the postseason, when he’s needed most. I genuinely believe that he is giving his absolute best, and his efforts are beyond praise-worthy, but at the end of the day I’m not confident that will be enough to get to the NBA Finals, let alone win a championship.
Bryant Knox (BK): The easy answer here is one that requires an asterisk. Robin Lopez is part of the championship puzzle*. Here’s the asterisk: He’s a replaceable part of the championship puzzle.
Portland needs a player who can defend the paint without commanding offensive attention. Lopez can score from 15 feet on occasion, has a reliable low-post hook shot and is a solid offensive rebounder (despite seeing a dip in production this past season). What he’s done for this team is remarkable, but Neil Olshey deserves just as much credit for finding an under-the-radar center at a great price. Lopez has been brilliant, but if Olshey can work his magic, there’s bound to be another player out there who does the dirty work—and isn’t commanding a pay raise this summer.
- Does Portland need more size in the middle, or is Lopez getting the job done regardless of the competition?
CM: Lopez gets the job done most nights, but simply lacks the size or strength to go toe to toe with the best in the West. Portland can’t ask Lopez to bulk up, as they’ve seen what a heavier body type has done to his very fragile brother Brook. Can they win with a long, slender, athletic center? Perhaps they can and perhaps they can’t, but with the bulk of the league ignoring the small-ball craze and going with bulky, traditional centers in the middle, it’s going to continue to be an uphill climb for Lopez to compete with heavier and stronger competition especially given that Aldridge is not going to be mistaken for a Rick Mahorn type, living to play defense and crash the boards down low. With DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, and Tyson Chandler among other big names on the open market this summer, and a big surge in cap room expected next summer, the time is now to open up the checkbook, and see what this team can do if talent and chemistry are what matter most, and if money is truly no object.
BK: Portland needs more size in the middle, but not in place of Lopez in the starting lineup. Off the pine, Meyers Leonard provides size—just not in the middle. Joel Freeland is 6’11”, but has yet to stay healthy or consistent enough to truly earn minutes at either backup center or power forward. And Chris Kaman isn’t going to be around forever; he could even be gone this summer.
Lopez is doing what he needs to do, but he only averages 27.8 minutes per game. The Blazers could use Rolo 2.0 (whoever it may be) as defensive insurance when the center heads to the sideline.
- Lopez is an underrated scorer but doesn’t call for the ball. Do you need more out of him offensively?
CM: Lopez has a ridiculous 57.4% “true shooting percentage”, good enough for 26th of any center in the league, regardless of time on the court or games played. With that level of production, absolutely he should be calling for the ball more. One spot I’d love to see more from him? Dunks and putbacks. But we’ll come back to that in a minute. Going back to Hollinger’s player ratings, he recovers just 14% of the Blazers’ missed shots. Per basketball-reference.com’s shooting matrix, Lopez attempted just 437 shots last year, and just 17% were ten or more feet away from the hoop. While he made nearly 40% of those longer shots, he’s now out of range to gather his own rebound when he draws iron on the other 60%. As far as dunks or putbacks go, Lopez had just 38 dunks last year, 18 fewer than another “flat-footed” center in Gasol. Both were not even close to Jordan, who led the league with 252. As good of an offensive rebounder as Lopez is, he will often be out of position to gather his own miss on those longer shots, and while he does average four offensive rebounds per game, imagine just how dominant this team could be if Lopez spent up to 20% more time boxing out down low. Call me crazy, but with a power forward that is the team’s primary scoring option and who prefers to set up shop 12-14 feet from the net, you want a center that likes to hang out under the hoop, and take care of your team’s dirty work, just ask Dirk Nowitzki.
BK: The fact that Lopez is a threat in the short-to-mid-range is more than enough. According to NBA.com, the big man shot a solid 45.5 percent between 10-14 feet. This is a perfect complement to his outstanding 60.9 percent clip from within five feet. But offense isn’t the Blazers’ problem, and getting Lopez more looks wouldn’t have gotten Portland to the second round. LaMarcus Aldridge spreads the floor, while Damian Lillard can score from anywhere. Adding to Lopez’s offensive game would make the center a more expensive option for the future, which is the last thing this starting lineup needs, as four of the five players are about to see a pay increase this summer.
- Lopez is a great rim protector, but not one of the premiere rebounders. Do you shop for Lopez’s replacement, or can Lopez become a top-five center?
CM: Letting his numbers do the talking, Lopez was #81 in total rebounds this season, #33 when the list is reduced to centers only. He is #56 in the league among qualified centers in providing second chance opportunities, and was 15th in offensive rebounds among all centers. That’s pretty darn good production considering he was the #22 highest paid center in the league. Lopez has miles of heart and is giving Portland everything he has, but I think you still have to be responsible and see who else you can get and if they would offer this team a legitimate upgrade without disrupting the chemistry and/or success. Assuming you can’t convince DeAndre Jordan or Marc Gasol to come here, Greg Monroe or Omer Asik make comparable salaries to Lopez, are similar in age, and are arguably better all-around players. Does someone like Asik or Monroe give Portland an edge that Lopez doesn’t? That’s a very tough question to ask and even tougher to answer. BUT -if you don’t see Lopez hanging out by the net more often, or being a better player regardless, you may as well roll the dice on a player with the potential to get this team over the hump.
Asik has low miles considering his time spent on the bench in Chicago and Houston, but he does earn an average of $3M more per year, and is turning 29 this summer. Monroe turns 25 this week, and earns virtually the same salary Lopez does. While he’s not the most gifted defender and isn’t ever going to be confused for an elite shot blocker at the pedestrian rate he’s going, he does score and rebound at a very high level, having averaged at least 15 points and 9 rebounds per game the last four seasons with Detroit. Lopez isn’t going to be a top-5 center, and neither is Asik. But there’s still hope and a lot of youth with Monroe, and that could be your best option if Gasol and Jordan pass on the opportunity.
BK: Lopez is never going to be a top-five center. To fall into that category, adjectives such as two-way threat and perennial All-Star need to be consistent monikers for at least a portion of a career.
At the same time, you don’t need to get rid of the 7-footer just because he’s not a superstar. Aldridge is a superstar. Lillard is a superstar. The Big Three concept has been a particularly sexy subject the past few years, but a Big Two with a starting lineup that’s jelled can be effective in its own right.
Keep Lopez for what he is; don’t sell just because he’s never going to be among the league’s most notorious big men.
- Do you believe enough in Meyers Leonard to let him be the starting center going forward?
CM: Not necessarily going forward right now, but it wouldn’t hurt to see “Meyers Legend” getting more time, and everyone would love to see him become the big deal he was drafted to one day become. He’s a big body and has shown flashes, but nothing consistent in a large enough sample size. Ideally he can pick up some more minutes this season backing up both the four and the five, and provide the team with a “twin-towers” lineup they’ve rarely used since the days of Marcus Camby and Joel Pryzbilla. Lopez is better than Leonard right now, but it wasn’t that long ago that Lopez was an injury prone “project” player in Phoenix that just needed an opportunity to prove what he can do over a full season with starter’s minutes. After being traded to New Orleans, he showed his worth in a limited role, and came to Portland to be a full time starter. Can Leonard show the same level of drive and development without leaving town? Perhaps.
BK: Not yet. At least not with the lineup as it’s currently constructed.
Leonard alongside Aldridge would essentially turn the Blazers’ offense into a 4-out 1-in attack. Aldridge would man the low block (primarily on the left side), and the rest of the motion offense would involve screens that get shooters open, eliminating the interior as an option.
Truth be told, I’d be more comfortable with Leonard as a starting 4 alongside Lopez, but that scenario only comes to fruition if Aldridge leaves and the Blazers swing and miss on every power forward they look at as a potential replacement.
More realistically, keeping Leonard as a backup 5 makes the most sense. Although Lopez isn’t commanding offensive attention, he’s a decent offensive-rebounding last resort. That’s not something Leonard can claim at this point in his career. The 23-year-old is perfect for coming in and spreading the floor, and he loves to play above the rim, but only with a full head of steam instead of following a series of back-down moves.
Leonard’s time will come, but for now, his role is to provide scoring and energy behind the incumbent starting center.
- Final thoughts – Does Lopez stay or go?
CM: Sadly I think it’s time for Robin to either stay as a reserve, or find himself a team that has a really big and strong power forward that won’t look for so much from the center position. Two teams that come to mind are Chicago and Cleveland. I’m going to assume that Aldridge stays (regardless of the term), Batum is traded, and Wesley Matthews is re-signed to a fair deal, and a short one, so they can either renegotiate if he’s back to form, or it’s a short term loss if he can’t. With Lillard presumably re-signed long-term later this season, and the potential CJ McCollum showed in the postseason, a new high profile rookie, and maybe even one smaller signing, that should be a pretty darn attractive landing spot for a center looking for a new home, even if it’s just a 2-3 year deal.
I’ve seen what Lopez can do, and while I’m certain that the average fan will vehemently disagree, I think we’ve seen his best and need to see what a stud like Jordan can do here, or go after a player on the rise like Monroe. No offense to Robin, but it is just so tough to survive without an elite center in the West where there’s already Jordan, Gasol, Howard, Cousins, Tyson Chandler, and Nikola Pekovic to deal with on a given night; and now there’s the emergence of Rudy Gobert in Utah and Gorgui Dieng in Minnesota. Yikes. One must also remember that there is a 50/50 chance that Jahlil Okafor lands with the Lakers later this month.
I say bring on the new blood.
BK: This answer comes down to one simple question: Does Portland retain LaMarcus Aldridge?
If the Blazers are able to woo Aldridge this summer, Lopez becomes (and continues to be) one of the underrated staples of this roster. His game complements that of a stretch 4 perfectly, and despite the pay raise he’s about to receive, he’s reasonably expected to be the lowest-paid player in the starting lineup as soon as Lillard gets the extension we all expect him to earn this summer.
If Aldridge goes, Lopez becomes less valuable to Portland. His growth over the past two years is impressive, but it’s at least partly due to playing alongside a superstar power forward who takes the pressure off of him both on the offensive end and in the rebounding category.
This is a situation where Lopez’s future is dependent upon the future of someone else. Aldridge’s free agency will play a big role here, and it’s the domino we’re all waiting to see fall—Lopez included—with a huge summer on the horizon.
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