Some of you may be nervous that the Portland team that finished the 2014-15 season may not be the same team that takes the court to start the 2015-16 season.
If such a change occurs, it could be for the best. Emphasis on “could.”
Portland has three starters with expiring contracts, and their biggest concern and rightfully so is signing LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge should stay, and it’s my opinion that DeAndre Jordan should be pursued before Robin Lopez is re-signed.
But what should they do in the curious case of Wesley Matthews, and is he capable of not only returning to form, but also keeping this team in contention, and lastly, can he help this team get better?
The easiest way to see where a team sits in the rise to the top (and perhaps one player’s worth) is not overall record or household names, but rather to look at how they performed during the regular season and the playoffs in these four categories:
- Second chance opportunities – how often a team rebounds their own missed shots
- Team shooting – combined 2pt, 3pt, and free throw shooting percentages
- Offensive efficiency – scoring average per 100 possessions
- Defensive efficiency – opponent’s scoring average per 100 possessions
During the regular season, Portland placed 10th in second chance opportunities (50.7%), 9thin shooting (54.4%), 8th in offensive efficiency (105.5 pts per 100 possessions), and 10th in defensive efficiency (101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).
Things went awry in the postseason, as they placed 9th (49.8%), 12th (50.4%) 13th (99 points per 100 possessions), and 11th (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) when the field decreased to 16 teams.
Does Wesley Matthews’ injury/absence explain how they went from a top-10 team in the 30-team regular season to the bottom half when the field was reduced to 16 teams?
I don’t believe that it does. But it does indicate that his absence was a big factor.
So if one player doesn’t fix the issue, how are they supposed to make the leap to a championship contender just by fielding the same team they already had?
If you’re listening, really listening, you’ll know that they can’t.
The starting five of Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge, and Lopez just is not enough to get the job done.
So here is the big question: Is Wesley Matthews a necessary cog?
By overall player efficiency ratings, he was the #16 best shooting guard in the NBA. If you thought there was a big drop-off in overall production when Arron Afflalo took over, you’d be right – Afflalo was the #58 rated shooting guard in the NBA. Matthews had the 7th best true shooting percentage of any shooting guard in the NBA, and was #36 when all qualified players at any position were factored in.
Here’s where the numbers take a nose-dive for Matthews’ camp: ESPN’s John Hollinger’s analytics estimates that Matthews being on the team only resulted in 6 more wins than if he were out or on another roster.
By comparison? Aldridge accounted for 14 wins, so did Lillard. Robin Lopez accounted for 5, Nicolas Batum 3. Ask yourself this – if one of your starting players is only worth 6 more wins than a comparable replacement player would be worth, is he worth keeping if another available player is worth more?
According to Hollinger’s rating scale, Batum, Lopez, and Matthews are all expendable/replaceable. Aldridge and Lillard are must-have players, as they were number 12 and 13 in the league in terms of adding wins to their team.
Hollinger’s ratings can make a player like Jimmy Butler (restricted FA) or Danny Green (unrestricted FA), both of whom are younger and out-ranked Matthews on the shooting guard player efficiency scale (and not recovering from Achilles surgery), look more attractive to a GM building a championship contender.
It doesn’t mean that Matthews isn’t one of the top guards in the NBA or that he isn’t worth the money, it just means that it’s worth questioning if he is really helping this team win the way the eye test says he is.
The fact of the matter is (and no numbers can accurately explain this one way or the other) that no one, not even Matthews himself, knows if he’ll be able to return to his previous form once he is finished with his rehab. Keep that in mind.
Perhaps he returns to the play we saw from him during a great if not spectacular run from 2012-15, when he was one of the top guards in the NBA, second to perhaps only Dwayne Wade. But he turns 29 this year and will have limited time left in his prime, regardless of his health. Basketball is a young man’s game and 30 is entering grandfather years in NBA terms.
Pretend you’re Neil Olshey, Portland Trail Blazers general manager, and the hand charged with designing and fitting and re-fitting a championship contender. If your starting shooting guard while at full health places 16th in overall rating, and one of the 15 players that ranked ahead of him is younger and available this summer, do you really choose to ignore that option?
Do you sign Matthews because he’s your best bet, or because he’s a fan favorite and you don’t want to turn your back on him after all he’s given you? Depending on your view, there may not be a wrong answer there, just a disagreeable one.
Perhaps Butler and Green are not exciting names to read in the July newspaper or on your Twitter feed, and perhaps they aren’t the keys to the championship kingdom. But both are starters on playoff teams that will be available this summer. Both outrank Matthews on the player efficiency list, and while Matthews landed at number 31 in three point accuracy and Butler at 44, Green was the 10th most deadly player from beyond the arc this season, and that’s league-wide.
Basketball is a game of numbers, and it’s no secret that both Cleveland and Golden State, this year’s representatives in the NBA Finals, beat Portland handily in the numbers game even if they had comparable records and they were all playoff teams.
Can Wesley Matthews’ return help get Portland to the top-five level this town wants and needs to see it reach?
One aspect that’s often overlooked when building an NBA roster in to a Frankenstein’s monster of talented players, is if said player will “gel” with this roster the way Matthews has. Matthews is absolutely well-respected and liked by fans and teammates, and during his time in Portland has been a big reason why they’ve had success. But when we talk about who the new kid would gel with, we don’t know who will be in the starting five next year, it could be the same five players, it could be a combination of 2-4 of them, and it very well could be Lillard and Batum alongside three new faces as they’re the only ones currently under contract. Keep that in mind as well.
One last thing to mull over is whether he’ll be a key contributor, or a liability going forward. It’s going to sting to re-open this wound, but consider the last days of Brandon Roy in a Blazers’ uniform. It was amazing to see his triumphant return from yet another knee injury, and equally sickening to see him leaning on crutches, yet again.
Being a GM means making the difficult decisions. Sometimes, those decisions involve signing new players and saying goodbye to familiar faces. Don’t think Olshey gets anymore enjoyment out of this experience than you do, and whatever decision he makes, he genuinely thinks it’s in the best interest of the team, not just a way to attract fans and sponsors.
This is a team game so this one decision isn’t the same as deciding between a good or a failed future for the next few years, but it can and will impact the color of the skies we see on basketball nights in Portland for the next few years if the next guy isn’t quite the same player Matthews was.
You make the call, would you bet on Wesley Matthews? Is he a “must-have” player?
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