During his nine seasons in Portland, LaMarcus Aldridge has been associated with the number twelve. If things go as expected, he’s going to be considering another number – 115.
$115 million dollars, that’s what it could cost the Trail Blazers to keep their captain and longest-tenured player around for five more seasons. He’s an elite player and the Blazers have cap room, so this is a simple situation, right? Perhaps not, and don’t forget that the team needs to also pay the other players. So before GM Neil Olshey looks at one potential/new contract this summer, he has to first subtract $28.8M from his budget, which covers the active players already under contract and keeps him well under the $67.1M projected salary cap.
So what does Olshey do with the remaining $38.3M in the checkbook? Evaluate. Evaluate, assess, and offer, but the offers have to align with both the bank balance and the expectations. Aldridge is one of the top forwards in the NBA, but when you make the list of the top ten players in the league, is he on it? That list admittedly has nothing to do with the payroll process, but it helps to determine pay-grade.
Currently, Aldridge has the 14th highest salary in the NBA, and is the fourth highest paid power forward, behind Chris Bosh ($23M), Blake Griffin ($18M), and Zach Randolph ($16M). Aldridge will turn 30 on July 19th, and during his time in Portland, he has never missed more than a third of a season, a strange feat in today’s NBA. But before the team offers the bank to the city’s beloved power forward this offseason, shouldn’t they first consider a very tough question: is Aldridge in fact the best available investment?
Before you can answer that question, you have to know where the $115M comes from and where it could be spent. NBA contracts aren’t that complicated once you know the rules and fine print, so we need to look at how his potential new deal could be broken down.
Per the current CBA, as Aldridge has played at least 7 seasons but less than 10, so his max-deal contract cannot exceed 30% of the salary cap or 105% of his previous season’s salary, whichever is greater. If he signs in Portland, who holds his “bird-rights”, he can sign for an additional fifth year, whereas other suitors can only sign him for a max of four years. His new deal with Portland should look like this –
Projected 2015-16 salary cap – $67.1M
Aldridge’s 2014 salary – $15.2M
30% of the team’s projected overall salary cap – $20.1M
105% of 2014 salary – $15.9M
Note- a bird-rights player max salary is only allowed to increase by 7.5% per year in the new deal and the increase is based off of the salary in the first year, which becomes an annual increase of $1.5M when using Aldridge’s projected $20.1M year 1 salary.
Year 1 – $20.1M
Year 2 – $21.6M
Year 3 – $23.1M
Year 4 – $24.6M
Year 5 – $26.1M
Including just the salary alone, his new deal should be worth an estimated $115.5M and an average salary of $23.1M. Under the current CBA, he could also get up to a 15% signing bonus on the balance of the contract, or an additional $17.3M, bringing his annual cap hit to $26.5M. If the team opts to use incentives up to $1M per season in lieu of a signing bonus, his average cap hit would decrease to $24.1M.
For reference, any other team in the league may only offer a 4-year max deal, and the salary may only increase by 4.5% based on his year 1 salary of $20.1M, which becomes a $904,500 annual increase. If Aldridge decided to leave the Blazers, this would be his projected “counter” offer –
Year 1 – $20.1M
Year 2 – $21M
Year 3 – $21.9M
Year 4 – $22.8M
His potential contract with another team would be worth $85.8M, with an average salary of $21.5M before any bonuses or incentives, netting Aldridge an average loss of $1.6M per season. I believe many other NBA teams would be interested in extending that offer to him, and depending on the supporting cast and/or other stars on the roster, Aldridge could be willing to take the pay cut for a great shot at a title.
The question becomes, if Aldridge wants to stay here, should the Blazers listen to that offer? Other elite power forwards have signed mega-deals at or near age 30, and with production comparable to Aldridge’s.
Kevin Garnett – signed an extension with an average salary of $18.9M in 2007 at age 30. His annual salary would have been worth $26.9M today.
Tim Duncan –signed an extension with an average salary of $20.7M in 2007 at age 31. His annual salary would have been worth $28.7M today.
Dirk Nowitzki – signed a 4-year/$80M contract, with an average salary of $20M in 2011 at age 32. His annual salary would have been worth $21M today.
Pau Gasol – signed a 3-year/$57M deal with an average salary of $19M in 2011 at age 30. His annual salary would have been worth 20.3M today.
By the contract numbers, Aldridge appears to be right about where he belongs amongst his peers. He’s the best player on the court about half of the time, but what about his on the court numbers?
Aldridge has just two seasons where he has averaged at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 1 block in the same year, but he has averaged at least 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block over the last five years. Garnett had six 20/10/1 seasons through his first nine years, and Duncan made it happen in eight of his first nine seasons and even averaged two blocks over that span. Gasol has yet to break the 20 and 10 season barrier, so has Nowitzki. However, Dirk did average at least 20 points and one block per game in seven of his first nine seasons.
So perhaps Chris Bosh is the easiest comparison to Aldridge, as they have similar playing styles, stand the same height, and their weight is only a five pound difference. Bosh’s numbers are fairly similar, as he averaged at least 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block per game in eight of his first nine seasons, seven of which were spent as the primary scoring option in fledgling Toronto.
Is Aldridge a better player than Nowitzki and Gasol? Probaby. Is he a better player than Bosh? Yes. But is he the guy you build your team around? There’s that darn $115 million dollar question again, and the Blazers can’t afford to get it wrong.
Where it gets really tricky as well as potentially back-breaking expensive is Robin Lopez. Because the Blazers own the “Bird-Rights” for both Aldridge and Lopez (both have only played for the Blazers or their original team and were acquired via the draft or trade), and they have both played more than seven seasons but fewer than ten, they could see both players demand identical deals. The good news is that Lopez is not expected to request a deal in the same neighborhood as Aldridge, but the possibility exists. If he does, the Blazers have exceptions in place that would allow them to go over the cap to sign both, regardless of how the contracts work out.
Their other player expected to sign a big deal this offseason is Wesley Matthews, who is in a slightly different boat.
- He is currently rehabbing from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Only one player (Dominique Wilkins) has suffered the injury and returned to comparable form. The team doesn’t know what the new Wes will look like, and neither does Wes, and that draws his current and projected worth into question.
- Wes was acquired in an offer sheet from Utah and therefore does not qualify as a bird-exception. As a non-bird Blazers free agent, he can only demand a 4-year max deal based off of $7.3M (120% of his 2014 salary) in his first season of the new deal and the annual salary would increase by 4.5% in the three following seasons ($328,000).
If the team wanted to sign all three to max-deals, they could do so and use an estimated $47.5M of their projected 67.1M cap while being protected by exceptions, and would need to use another $28.8M to pay the rest of the team, assuming Afflalo and Blake do not return (if Kaman retires that’s another $5M off the books). This plan puts their total team salary at $76.3M, and $9.2M beyond the “soft” cap which puts any idea of netting a marquee free agent dead in the water before the net is even cast.
So assuming Wes and Robin (and their agents) have not gone off the deep end and negotiate reasonable deals that illustrate their worth as well as the available cash on the table, it’s going to be a big stretch to draw a big-time player here to Portland to play alongside Aldridge and Damian Lillard.
Aldridge had an amazing playoff series in 2014, and the last five years have been what the money called for. But, the injury bug bit and kept biting until the team had no depth and was a major factor in their disappointing end to the 2014-15 season. Well, now they have no depth AND no cash stores.
The fact is, we’ve not seen Aldridge lead this team on a deep postseason run, in nine years there has only been one year where they advanced beyond the first round, and while he has shown flashes in those nine years of being a truly elite player, he has not regularly looked like a player worth $115 million.
If you look back at the last nine years, other than the Houston series in 2014, what were the all-time great moments? What were the hall of fame moments? If you had to make a highlight reel, can you make one that makes him look like an obvious choice for a max-deal?? If you can’t, that doesn’t mean that you don’t pay him, that he’s not worth it, or that he isn’t the great player he’s proven to be.
What it does mean, is that perhaps he’s not the franchise cornerstone he’s expected to be. And if he’s not your cornerstone player, is he worth that much money? Is he still if I told you that unrestricted free agents Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, and Kevin Love could be signed for less money? What if I told you that you could sign one of those players and still afford to pursue Paul Millsap, Omir Asik, Tyson Chandler, Danny Green, and Rodney Stuckey for quality starters and/or depth?
That’s all just talking out loud given Portland’s history in recruiting free agents, but just imagine.
While I ask you to close your eyes to imagine the possibilities, what about the possibility of a title?
Can you see LaMarcus leading this team to the conference finals? To the NBA Finals? To the NBA Title??
Are you willing to bank on it?
That’s the $115 million dollar question.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
