As the start of the NBA season approaches, I’ll be breaking down each Trail Blazer expected to play a role in the team’s chances for success. Today, we feature the Assassin, Damian Lillard. (Stats provided by NBA.com)
How Did He Do Last Year?: Let’s see. Lillard made the All-Star team and the All-NBA Third Team. He put up averages of 20.7 points, 5.8 assists, and hit 39.4% of his 3-point attempts, which is amazing because he attempted 554 of them (42.5% of his overall field-goal attempts!). That kind of high-volume marksmanship is only exceeded by Stephen Curry … the guy whose rookie 3PM record Lillard broke.
Lillard made game-winning shots in consecutive road games. He shot over 100 more free throws than he did in his rookie year, taking advantage to the tune of 87% shooting from the charity stripe. He punished defenses idiotic enough to give him even a sliver of space, and his pick-and-pop plays with LaMarcus Aldridge were pure nastiness when the Blazers ran them. Lillard provided the spine for a Portland team that surprised everybody, and I mean everybody, in winning 54 games and going to the playoffs.
Once in the postseason, he elevated his game, hanging 23 points a night and providing much-needed relief when Aldridge was getting hounded, keeping defenses honest. Patrick Beverly of Houston, touted as an irritant because of his defensive abilities at the 1 (point guard), fell victim to Lillard’s timely shooting from 3-point range.
And whenever you type “Damian Lillard” in YouTube’s search bar, you get about 20,000 results that say something like “DAMIAN LILLARD DAGGER SHOT” or “MODA CENTER EXPLODES.” We also can’t forget “HARDEN STANDS BY AS LILLARD HITS CRAZY SHOT AT BUZZER.” There might have been a couple people 50 miles away that didn’t hear somebody yelling their lungs out of their mouths.
I think the kid did alright.
What’s His Role For Next Year?: After two seasons that saw him elevate from “Who’s that guy?” to the second-best player on a top-ten NBA team, the Assassin will continue to be the go-to guy in the fourth quarter. I don’t think Aldridge will mind that much; earlier in his career, the dynamic between him and Brandon Roy, was Aldridge kicking things off in the first quarter, playing until the middle of the second quarter, then Roy finishing the opponent off in the fourth.
With Lillard already developing a reputation for late-game heroics and total fearlessness, I believe a similar dynamic will develop between the big man and the point guard, with the rest of the team taking advantage of the attention their two offensive juggernauts will draw.
What Are His Strengths?: When discussing Lillard, one must start with his 3-point shooting. That’s his foundational skill as a player, the knife that lets him butter his bread on the basketball court.
He can make threes from the catch, snagging a pass from the air. He can make them in your grill, with a cold frosty glare. He can make threes off the dribble, shot from angles all strange. He can make them from anywhere, with boundless range. He can drop tons and tons of threes, making it rain. He can hit them from a plane, he can hit them from a train.
Lillard displays a confidence in himself that rubs off very easily, both on his teammates and the fans in the stands. I’ve watched dozens of players take shots for the Blazers, and the thought was always, “I hope it goes in.” Damian Lillard is the only player I’ve seen play for Portland that makes me think, “I know it’s going in” every time he hoists up a 3.
That quality is as uplifting for his home fans as it is crushing for the opponents’ fans. I’ve seen videos of Rockets fans celebrating after Chandler Parsons tipped in the go-ahead basket with .9 seconds left in Game 6, only to wail “Noooooooo!” when Lillard broke free from Parsons and James Harden, caught Nicolas Batum’s inbounds pass, and shot the ball. After the 25-foot bomb dropped on their team, it was quiet enough to hear a mouse fart.
I’ve felt the same way watching Kobe Bryant shooting big shots in a close game against the Blazers – not just that he was the one guy you didn’t want shooting, but that awful sense of inevitability as that round sphere floated toward the hoop. It is the most helpless feeling a sports fan can experience, and if it weren’t my team delivering the blow, I would’ve felt extremely sorry for those poor Rockets fans.
What Does He Need To Improve On?: Firstly, I want to explain something: point guard defense is amongst the most difficult things to do well on a basketball court. The only points that can really shut down anybody at the 1-guard spot are Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers and Jrue Holiday of the New Orleans Pelicans. Mike Conley of the Memphis Grizzlies is another good defender at the point.
Paul stands just 6 feet (if that), but his lightning reflexes, high basketball IQ, and bulldog mentality make him an absolute nightmare for a ball handler trying to initiate offense. Lillard himself said in an interview with the Inside the NBA crew after his rookie season that Paul was the toughest point guard to go against. Holiday is not a widely known name, but he’s tall for a point guard (6-4), with a ridiculous 6-7 wingspan. Those long arms, coupled with quick feet and solid athleticism, let him capably defend anyone 6-8 or shorter.
If a 1 doesn’t have Paul’s skills and smarts, or isn’t a freak like Holiday, his defense typically falls into one of these categories: “passable,” “below average,” “bad,” and “Ahhhhhh my eyes!” For young players like Lillard, it’s doubly hard because having to run an NBA team and be the first line of defense is just too much to ask a lightly-seasoned player to do. This is why I can’t be all that hard on Lillard for sucking as bad as he does on defense.
Fighting over screens is Lillard’s most egregious bugaboo. One of the main reasons the Spurs were able to roll Portland like they did in the 2014 playoffs was their ability to pick on Lillard no matter where Terry Stotts stashed him. Kawhi Leonard drove through him like Lillard was made of grass. Danny Green ran him through about 15 screens before popping an open 3. Manu Ginobili used veteran craftiness to bamboozle Lillard into making mistakes.
Portland tries to hide Lillard because his defense went between “bad” and “Ahhhhhh, my eyes!” For Lillard, and the Trail Blazers, to take the next step as player and franchise, he needs to be between “below average” and “passable” on defense. And for the love of God, stop getting ploughed on SO MANY SCREENS!
Fortunately, Lillard has the physical tools to be a half-decent defender in the NBA. He and Kyrie Irving are very similar in many respects, and whichever one of those guys can make visible improvement on that end will separate himself from the other. Irving and Lillard were ranked right next to each other in SI.com’s Top 100 rankings (just outside the top 20), and comparing them has been a favored mental exercise of mine.
Summary: This summer has been a glorious one for Lillard, the first of hopefully many. He’s starred in a non-stop stream of commercials, he’s hosted several basketball camps, he tried out for Team USA, and he’s basked in the glow of being an up-and-coming star.
Taking that positive momentum into a new NBA season will be nice, but it will last only so long in the merciless grind of an 82-game season. More eyes than ever will be on Lillard this season. If he can finish at a higher rate around the rim, make a few more plays, and be less of a minus on defense, he’ll be closer to making the leap to superstar, and the Blazers will be closer to hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
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