The middle of September is usually about three things in the American sports world: the NFL, college football, and the MLB pennant race. Even with pro football’s ongoing and mounting troubles regarding the mental health of it’s players, as long as there is gambling and fantasy football, it will have a place in the sports world–though I don’t like it.
But this won’t be about the obviously incompetent and tone-deaf NFL. Nor will it be about the college game or baseball. I’m one of those people that is obsessed with basketball, and since I’ve lived in Portland nearly all my life, I’m a fan of the Trail Blazers.
For some folks, covering or blogging about your favorite or hometown team is a challenge, if you’re asked to be somewhat objective. I know of writers that deliberately pick crappy teams to blog about; it’s more difficult to point out the positives of the Orlando Magic’s latest blowout loss than it is to say, “The San Antonio Spurs rested everybody again, yet won anyway,” or, “LeBron James hung a triple-double tonight,” and blah blah blah.
Whether the Portland Trail Blazers are good, bad, or just meh, I’ve never shied away from the task of writing about my hometown team. So without further blather, I’ll kick off my 2013-14 Blazers Season Preview with the Main Man, LaMarcus Aldridge:
How Did He Do Last Year?: If there was any doubt at all that Aldridge was a bona-fide, top 10 player in the NBA, he squashed them with feathery jump shots, bullying post moves, and a new-found tenacity on the boards. He put up career-highs of 23.2 PPG and 11.1 RPG, served as the first option on a 54-win team, and was generally his reliable, mellow self.
In the playoffs, he feasted on poor Terrance Jones of Houston, dropping 40-plus in each of the first two games before Kevin McHale sacrificed offensive flexibility by putting Omer Asik in the starting lineup, with the express purpose to help Dwight Howard contain Aldridge.
Watching how Aldridge and Robin Lopez worked together in the frontcourt reminded me of something an old friend told me, “A perfect machine can be built from imperfect parts.” What he meant was this: Lopez was a fringe starting center before he came to Portland. He didn’t fit in very well with his former teams, was injured often, and was always known as “Brook’s brother,” a reference to the Brooklyn Nets’ All-Star center, and Robin’s twin.
When he arrived in Portland, Lopez’s willingness to be the garbage man meshed wonderfully within the team structure, and it enabled Aldridge to do Aldridge things. The result was a player who posted his peak year on arguably the best professional team he’d ever played for.
What’s His Role For Next Year?: There’s no reason for Aldridge’s role to change this year; he’s in the peak years of both his basketball career and his life overall, Damian Lillard isn’t ready yet, and no one else on the Portland roster as of now is as capable as Aldridge, or even Lillard, in terms of being the Main Man.
On offense, the Blazers’ attack revolves around the pick-and-pop with either Lillard of Nicolas Batum handling the ball, as well as Aldridge isolating on the left side of the floor, usually on the high post (about 20 feet from the basket). I’d like to see him roll to the hoop more often, but with Lopez down there ready to clean up any missed shot, Aldridge smartly recognizes that shooting from the outside is not a bad thing.
What Are His Strengths?: With his 6-11 frame and long arms, Aldridge can get a decent shot off against anyone. Portland head coach Terry Stotts, in fact, was an assistant coach with the Dallas Mavericks when they won the 2011 championship, anchored by future Hall-of-Famer Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk also is renowned for his ability to make shots regardless of the defense.
The main differences offensively between Aldridge–a multi-time All-Star and top 10 player in the league – and Nowitzki, who’s regarded as one of the best 20 players of all time by some folks, are sheer volume of production and range. Dirk’s routinely pumped out seasons that put Aldridge’s best efforts so far to shame, and the big German can shoot farther and has had better success at the free-throw line. Aldridge shot a career-best 82% from the foul line last season, yet Dirk hasn’t shot lower than that since his rookie year.
I was 12 years old when Nowitzki joined the NBA, and so was Aldridge.
I don’t mean to break Aldridge down by mentioning all this. I want to point out what made the Blazers’ coaching job so attractive to Stotts. Aldridge and Nowitzki’s field goal percentages have been very similar since Aldridge became the Blazers’ top option, and even though Aldridge’s percentage dropped to a career-low 45.8% last year that was a product of him being double-teamed and being the defense’s main worry – like Nowitzki is for Dallas.
Aldridge also is a better defender than people give him credit for, mostly because Portland’s defense was so mediocre the last two years. As Lillard continues to grow, and the team overall gets better, I think we might see Aldridge utilize those long arms, quick feet, and veteran savvy on the defensive side of the ball more. He isn’t a rim protector by any means, but he is capable of being more of a deterrent than Lopez. His rebounding also improved, though that was more a product of Lopez being there than anything special Aldridge did.
What Does He Need To Improve On?: Taking fewer midrange shots would be a great place to start. Aldridge took more shots between the paint and the three-point line than anyone else in the NBA last year. In fact, he took more midrange shots than all the members of the Houston Rockets combined. That says more about the Rockets’ mania for efficiency than about Aldridge, but that stat still boggles the mind.
While Aldridge is very accurate from 20 feet out, the midrange shot has long been the worst shot for a big man to take. Traditionally speaking, only one good thing can usually happen for you as a big man taking that shot: it goes in. You can’t draw fouls shooting jumpers, you’re usually out of rebounding position (a killer for the Blazers until Lopez showed up, by the way), and you typically looked like a big 7-foot sissy fading away from contact.
Analytics-wise, a 20-footer goes in much less often than a shot close to the rim, and only goes in slightly more often than a three-pointer, which obviously is worth more. Also, Aldridge takes those shots while being closely guarded most of the time. Taking so many of the least-efficient shots in basketball while being the defense’s focal point at all times is why Aldridge’s FG% took such a big dip last year – he’d never shot below 48.4% till then.
One way for Aldridge to produce the way the Blazers need him to, while also lessening the work he has to do to score, is to expand his range to the three-point line. Chris Bosh, the big man playing for the Miami Heat, adopted the 3-point shot last season after spending his prior 10 years doing what Aldridge did, with similar statistical results.
While Bosh shot a below-average 34% from three last season, many of his 74 makes from that distance came when he trailed the play during one of the Heat’s feared fast-breaks, set up at the 3-point line like a super-sized version of Ray Allen, and splashed home an open three. As long as the 3-pointer is regularly practiced, any decent shooter will connect on an open three – and Aldridge is a very good shooter for a big man.
Summary: At this point in his career, Aldridge pretty much is going to be what he is the rest of the way. Fortunately for the Trail Blazers, he is a tent-pole, franchise player. Like Nowitzki and Bosh, he’ll likely make small tweaks to his game as he gets older, but whether or not he can lead the Blazers on a deep playoff run will depend more on what his teammates will do than what Aldridge does, a fact that doesn’t separate himself from Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, or any other star player at the second tier below LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
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