Ushering in a new era of Portland Trail Blazers basketball seems to be the theme of the 2015 NBA offseason. The Rip City roster no longer resembles the crew that had back-to-back 50-win seasons over the past two years, but one thing it can hang its hat on is that youth and potential have become the beacons of hope in an otherwise confusing time.
In a 15-part series, Oregon Sports News’ Bryant Knox and Jared Wright will be breaking down each player on the Trail Blazers roster. The series will conclude with an OSN Roundtable in October covering the state of the franchise entering the 2015-16 campaign.
Today, we take a look at a player who could easily be seen as an afterthought. Whether he actually is an afterthought, or if he can be a credible rotation player in the NBA, will depend on whether he can channel his inner Wesley Matthews.
(Stats provided by basketball-reference.com)
Where He’s Been
Allen Crabbe was a three-year college player who decided to forgo his senior year, and enter the 2013 NBA Draft. He finds himself in a position that many former top collegians, particularly upperclassmen, are in these days: BMOC on campus, end-of-bench scrub in the NBA.
The days of three- or four-year college players ascending to the top of the NBA food chain are over, and have been since I was a child (I’m 29 now). With so many top freshmen, or those with “potential,” choosing to leave school early, along with the old high school eligibility rules that LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Garnett took advantage of, the elite NBA player with more than two years experience has become pretty much extinct; Dwyane Wade is the last of that breed, and he’s only good for 60 games a year due to his crumbling knees.
Brandon Roy, the former Blazer star and four-year college player out of the University of Washington, will likely be the last four-year player with the potential to be a Top-10 NBA player (I doubt Damian Lillard will get there, to be honest). We all know what happened with him, and it was a crushing blow not just to the NBA at large, but to the notion that upperclassmen could still be NBA stars.
As for Allen Crabbe, I actually saw him play quite a few times in college, where he starred for the University of California-Berkeley (commonly known in Pac-12 circles as Cal). I took a look at his shooting form, and his prototypical NBA shooting guard size (6’ 6”, 210 pounds), and I thought to myself, “This guy has a chance to be a solid NBA player.”
I didn’t see Brandon Roy-lite in Crabbe, but I saw somebody that could follow the popular 3-and-D model among wing players that can’t create shots for themselves or others. Then again, that’s just the way fans think, isn’t it? We (and many NBA personnel people) take a look at a guy, say “hey, he has something to offer, he can be a contributor,” and he turns out to be nothing.
So far, Crabbe hasn’t given the Blazers much in his limited time on the floor, and with his contract running out this season, he doesn’t have much time left to prove he can stick on an NBA team.
How He Got Here
Crabbe was the 31st pick of the 2013 Draft by the Cleveland Cavaliers; he was the first pick of the second round, and missed having a guaranteed NBA contract by one spot. If I were Crabbe, I would have been sorely disappointed, and I’m sure he was.
I didn’t see any trades in Crabbe’s transaction history provided by basketball-reference.com, so I’ll assume his rights were bought by the Portland front office. And yes, a team can do that–Portland’s been using Paul Allen’s mountain of cash for decades to purchase draft picks from cheaper teams that either can’t afford to keep a draftee on their roster, or just want a quick couple million bucks.
The Cavs were trying to open up enough cap space in case LeBron James wanted to come back, and likely called around the NBA looking for someone to buy Crabbe’s rights so they didn’t totally waste a draft pick. Enter Paul Allen and his mountain of cash.
It was a very low-risk flier by the Portland front office on a guy who some (including myself) thought had first-round talent; I remember my brother and I being mildly shocked that Crabbe wasn’t a first-rounder.
What He Brings To The Table
Between two short stints in the D-League in March 2014, and some playing time last year, Crabbe hasn’t logged enough time on the court to make assumptions based on numbers alone. He’s recorded just 783 minutes total in his career, and hasn’t had any kind of significant role in any of those minutes.
One trend I would like to note in this space is important to highlight, for it concerns a major reason why he was considered a draftable NBA player: his three-point shooting. In college, where the three-point line is shorter, his shooting stats were very good…the first two years.
| Year | Field Goal % | 3-PT Field Goal % | Free Throw % |
| 2010-11 | 45% | 40% | 80% |
| 2011-12 | 43% | 40% | 84% |
| 2012-13 | 46% | 35% | 81% |
| Career | 44% | 38% | 82% |
The drop-off in 2012-13 in his three-point percentage likely led to him falling out of the first round, even if you could chalk that up to him getting the lion’s share of defensive attention his junior year.
In the NBA, he’s had a somewhat solid three-point stroke, hitting at a 36% clip. His overall field goal shooting, however, is very below-average at 40%. That shows a lack of ability to finish plays or improvise when he’s been forced to.
His defensive skills also still need to be polished, though that’s what you can say about all young perimeter players. Crabbe’s done a good job of hanging in there when he’s been called on, though with either one of Nicolas Batum or Wesley Matthews flanking him at all times, Crabbe was never put on the top perimeter threat. He doesn’t have that luxury anymore.
When he’s been put in a bad position by the opposing offense, whether via pick-and-roll or other shenanigans, Crabbe was sometimes confused, but otherwise was alright for a young guy. As a scorer in college, Crabbe likely didn’t have to focus on defense much.
To stick in the NBA, he now has to make improving his defense a priority. He did contribute slightly more Win Shares on defense compared to his offense last season (0.8 to 0.5), for what it’s worth.
What To Expect
If Crabbe can hit threes at a 40% rate and play competent defense, he’s going to have a spot on an NBA team. The problem is finding enough time on the court for him at either small forward (where he‘s played 75% of his NBA minutes) or shooting guard, even in the current rebuilding phase the Trail Blazers are in.
The Blazers will want to play Gerald Henderson to see if he can build up any trade value, CJ McCollum will get run at both guard spots, Moe Harkless will get his chances, Pat Connaughton is worth a look, and Al-Farouq Aminu will take minutes at small forward.
The ceiling for Allen Crabbe is perhaps the lowest of all those players listed above, to be frank. The Blazers are all about potential at this point. If Crabbe doesn’t show very significant improvement in training camp, preseason, practice, and whenever he takes the court, expect him to be at the end of the bench, then off the Portland Trail Blazers roster after the season.
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