Three overtime games. The total margin of victory in six games being just 28 points. Honestly, the series ending on a buzzer-beating three from Damian Lillard is the only way the Houston Rockets-Portland Trail Blazers series could have ended. Now Portland moves on to face the team with the most playoff experience, led by at least one future Hall-of-Famer, and as many as three, depending on your opinion.
While the Portland-Houston series was a slugfest of two offensive powerhouses with shaky defenses, this series will be a war of control. Gregg Popovich’s San Antonio Spurs want to control the tempo, make teams play at the pace they want to play at. This is accomplished through a lockdown perimeter defense and a middle controlled by Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter. On the offensive end, San Antonio has a dizzying array of shooters. Portland will have to take certain steps to ensure they can move on to upend the number one seed and fight on in the Western Conference Finals.
STEP ONE: Find your depth.
In the regular season, no bench played fewer minutes than Portland’s. Unsurprisingly, this carried over to the playoffs, with only Mo Williams and Dorell Wright playing consistent minutes. Thomas Robinson played more as the series progressed, but that was because coach Terry Stotts fazed Joel Freeland out entirely. Portland’s Game Five loss is the perfect example of when things go wrong for Portland. LaMarcus Aldridge could not keep his Michael Jordan impersonation going, and the bench combined for 5 points in 43 minutes with a -41 point differential. For the Blazers to challenge San Antonio, who plays nine players regularly and has seen playoff play from the entire bench, Joel Freeland, Will Barton and CJ McCollum need to be able to give the starters a rest.
STEP TWO: Avoid aggressive fouls.
The problem facing San Antonio is that all five starters (Duncan, Splitter, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Tony Parker) can score in large numbers, similar to the Blazers. Green is the weak link on that list, but his replacement off the bench in Manu Ginobili has been on a tear in the playoffs, scoring 17 or more points in five of the seven games versus Dallas. Portland needs to keep its key players out of foul trouble in order to contain San Antonio’s lineup. This may mean fewer steals, but that will have to be the trade-off to keep Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum off the bench. San Antonio will likely use Splitter down low to try to get either LaMarcus Aldridge or Robin Lopez in foul trouble early to take advantage of Portland’s lack of long depth on the bench. Portland must play smarter than that.
STEP THREE: Don’t Panic and Hit Open Shots
One of Portland’s biggest strengths is their outside shooting. Batum, Matthews, Williams, Wright, Lillard and Aldridge can all reliably shoot from 8-20 feet, and when the buckets fall, as what happened in Game Six, the Blazers can outscore anyone in the league. For the Blazers to win this series, they cannot afford to take bad shots and miss open ones. It seems like a simple answer, because it is a simple question: “How do we push our advantages?” Aldridge spent the first two games against Houston putting on a shooting display that will be told to future generations. He cooled off later in the series, but his range and touch puts him with Kevin Durant and LeBron James as the most dynamic scorers in the playoffs. If Aldridge and Lillard can find themselves open, Portland has a real chance to take this series.
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