Although Christmas time and the New Year that comes shortly afterwards features playoff football at both the collegiate and professional levels, and all the riveting sudden-death drama that comes with it, Christmas time is also a major part of the NBA schedule. Christmas Day itself has become for the NBA what Thanksgiving is to the NFL, a holiday where the majority of Americans are sitting at home, or the home of a relative, looking for something to watch as the food comas kick in or an outlet used to get away from the crazy in-laws.
While the Portland Trail Blazers don’t play on Christmas itself, after the brutal Southwest swing that starts today at the depleted San Antonio Spurs, Schedule Claus gift-wraps a Charmin-soft slate that takes Portland past New Year’s Day and deep into January.
We at Oregon Sports News will be taking a hiatus to connect with family, celebrate the holidays, or (in my case) laugh as certain people they work with have to deal with their in-laws. I personally will chill at home, enjoy getting no gifts from my decimated, cash-strapped extended family, and thank the fates for being Forever Single.
Since this space will be vacated for awhile, I’ll craft a Super Preview to cover the Blazers’ games from tomorrow till January 3rd, against the Atlanta Hawks. We will be back in action on the fifth, and I’ll be amongst the first to storm the beachhead, as always.
Time for picks! Let’s go! (All games on AM 620 radio, all stats per NBA.com)
Saturday, Dec. 20: @ the New Orleans Pelicans, CSNNW, 4:00 PM
The Skinny: Let’s say this for Monty Williams’ team: average they may be, but they’ll scrap to the death. Thursday’s victory over the Houston Rockets is the kind of game New Orleans will win occasionally, thanks to Anthony Davis, Destroyer of Worlds.
With Tyreke Evans in and out of the lineup lately, the sad thing for the Pelicans is that, like I’ve said before about them, they have nobody on the wings that can reliably do NBA-level things on a basketball court. Davis himself is still putting up ridiculous numbers, and he’s still young enough that we can marvel at him without the fetters of championship expectations that used to smother LeBron James, that now smother Kevin Durant.
The Destroyer is averaging 25 PPG and 10 RPG, while also getting three blocks, two steals, and at least one “Holy smokes DID YOU JUST SEE THAT!?” play per game. He shoots a great 48% from mid-range and a spectacular 67% from the paint. The three blocks per game don’t begin to describe the full impact he has protecting the rim, as well as the way he plays individual defense. This is a man that can block a LaMarcus Aldridge fadeaway, a shot designed to be uncontestable.
New Orleans still has time to build a contender around this unique player, but as we’re seeing with Durant, that clock will tick to the point where it’s put-up-or-shut-up time. Whether Williams will still be the coach, or whether Evans, Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Omer Asik or anybody else will still be on the team are decisions that Anthony Davis should–and will–have a large part in making.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Jrue Holliday. Without Robin Lopez manning the middle until February, it’s likely Aldridge will feel the full wrath of the Davis-Asik tag team on offense. Chris Kaman (AKA Air Sasquatch) is going to stay at his limit of 18 minutes a game, Thomas Robinson is undersized, and Joel Freeland isn’t an offensive factor. (And Meyers Leonard? Forget Leonard.) As great as Aldridge is, the odds are against him carrying Portland in this game.
Which brings us here. Lillard will have to go through a great point defender in Holliday, but the obstacles in his way are much less daunting than Aldridge’s, at least on the perimeter. Lillard will have to take, and make, a large amount of three-pointers, and set up Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and whomever comes in off the bench for more threes.
The Blazers will not beat the Pelicans inside. The bulk of the points must come from the outside, and the key to that is Lillard.
Prediction: Second night of a back-to-back, on the road, against a team uniquely equipped to neuter Portland’s best player? I can’t pick the Blazers to win, sorry.
Monday, Dec. 22: @ the Houston Rockets, KGW (channel 8), 5:00 PM
The Skinny: Houston seems to have recovered nicely from the unceremonious dumping they received at the hands of the Blazers back in May, with a record of 19-5 even without Dwight Howard for half the season. James Harden, who had a wretched series before Game 6 last year, is submitting MVP numbers, and the Rockets’ role players have done what they needed to do to support the Beard while Howard was on the shelf.
While some significant players on last year’s team (Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik) are no longer in Houston, it’s still good to see that those who remain haven’t let last season linger like an old wound. I compare it to seeing an old ex-girlfriend (or boyfriend, depending on your persuasion) and finding out they’ve had success in their profession, or found somebody they’re with long-term.
You say all the required things, all the social niceties, about how glad you are to see them doing well. Inwardly, though, you do seethe somewhat, or at least I do. Memory for me is permanent; eidetic memory, the scientific term is. I can recall with astounding clarity every moment I’d spent with that person, the happiness and contentment I’d found, the heartbreak after it was taken away. For most people, those sensations fade away, but for me, it feels like my heart is getting ripped out all over again.
Remembering the shot Lillard made against the Rockets last year is a moment of euphoria that will never fade for me, and for the rest of my life (and probably for many other folks’ lives, as well), whenever Portland plays Houston, The Shot will be relived. Likely replayed when the Rockets visit the Moda Center, as well.
Even though I’m secretly steaming that Houston is doing well, unlike the example I mentioned above, I’ll always have The Shot. Even if Harden and Howard take their team to the NBA Finals, they can never take that moment away from the Blazers, or me.
Key Matchup: Wesley Matthews vs. James Harden. While Harden’s basic numbers on the offensive end are almost Michael Jordan-caliber (27/6/6), his efficiency has fallen off a cliff. It’s understandable, since he is taking 19 shots a game, but Rockets GM Daryl Morey can’t be thrilled that Harden’s barely cracking 41% shooting from the field.
Free throws are the saving grace for the Beard; he shoots 10 of them a game, converting at an 88% rate. His game has been called cowardly, cheap, and ugly. He flops about like a landed fish whenever a big guy so much as breathes near him on his way to the hoop. He courts contact to the point that it becomes his only goal when he drives into the paint; shooting is the last thing he wants to do sometimes.
Call it what you will, but you can’t argue with the results–he really is approaching Older Jordan numbers. Matthews has made things difficult for Harden many a time before, but he’s never faced this version of the Beard. With Lopez out and the foul machine backup bigs getting more minutes, Wes has to find some way to make Harden shoot jump shots, preferably with one of Matthews’ big paws in his face. Otherwise, it’ll be a parade to the foul line.
Prediction: With Houston at full strength, Howard gets fed 20 times in the post, bullies Kaman and Freeland, and powers the Rockets to a revenge win.
Tuesday, Dec. 23: @ the Oklahoma City Thunder, CSNNW, 5:00 PM
The Skinny: My my, what a difference six weeks can make. When these teams squared off at the start of the season, Kevin Durant was out with a broken foot, Russell Westbrook was flying solo, and the Thunder were just hoping to hold on until the cavalry came. Then Westbrook broke his hand, and OKC was exposed as a top-heavy team with a weak supporting cast.
Since those early lows, which included a 3-12 start, the Thunder got Westbrook back at the same time that Durant finally rode in on his shining white horse, ready to save the day. They’ve gone on an eight-game winning streak that was just snapped by the Golden State Warriors.
The dirty little secret of that streak, however, was that it came against teams that were slightly above-average at best, except for Cleveland…and who knows what that bunch are these days. Playing the Warriors isn’t like playing a young Milwaukee team, or a Phoenix team still trying to play three point guards at once. When faced with their first real test since the band got back together, the Thunder fell short.
Oklahoma City will make the playoffs, and they will be dangerous. But ignore all the “OKC is back!!!” blather the media is coming out with. They’re not the bogeymen the likes of Royce Young and Matt Moore make them out to be, not yet.
Key Matchup: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Serge Ibaka. As usual with teams playing against Aldridge, the center will spend significant time guarding Aldridge, but you can bet Ibaka will be watching from the weak side, ready to help the inexperienced Steven Adams or the hapless Kendrick Perkins in case Aldridge gets around them.
Ibaka has the strength now to bang in the post against most big men, but Aldridge is definitely not “most big men.” The moves he uses to get his shot off, the dribble, bump and turn, then fadeaway jumper, are as effective against Ibaka as they are against every other defender not named Anthony Davis Aldridge has ever faced, and the Thunder don’t want their rim protector trapped on Aldridge’s back, helpless to assist everybody else.
Aldridge has to play like the star he is in this game, limiting Ibaka’s scoring chances on one end while pounding Oklahoma City’s bigs on the other. Countering Durant and Westbrook’s impact starts with Aldridge.
Prediction: Although this is the fourth game in five nights of this road trip from hell, I’m tired of being a Debbie Downer. Portland squeaks one out.
Friday, Dec. 26: vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, KGW (channel 8), 7:00 PM
The Skinny: This game is the first of seven straight at home following Christmas for the Blazers, and a late Christmas gift in the form of the Sixers should be the perfect salve for all those bumps and bruises received playing the likes of Houston and Oklahoma City on the road.
There are a billion articles on this team interspersed throughout the Internet, and I myself talked at length about them with Brad Stein on The Slant last week, so I won’t delve into this game. Just know that Portland is going to brutally kick really cute, really sweet puppies with giant hopeful eyes, and KGW is really cruel to put this game on basic cable for everybody to see.
Portland wins.
Sunday, Dec. 28: vs. the New York Knicks, CSNNW, 6:00 PM
The Skinny: Another terrible team. Another subject a billion Internet writers are obsessed with (‘CAUSE ET’S NUUUUU YAWWWKKK, *expletive*!!). Another subject Brad raised, to my chagrin.
The infighting amongst the Knicks is highly embarrassing; I’ve seen fifth-graders, literally, acting with more maturity and class than this mismatched group of idiots, psychos, megalomaniacs, and clueless youngsters looking for a way out.
Young kids–many of them minorities like these guys, others of mixed race like I myself am–going out of their way to say hi, or putting their heavy chairs up onto the desks, or to help out with the sweeping or garbage before the bell rings, making my job cleaning the school easier. They don’t have to do that, but they do anyway. They’re a tribute to their teachers, their parents, and the community that’s scratching and clawing to give these kids a decent education.
When I compare how those kids act to the shenanigans of the New York Knicks, it makes me ashamed that they’re a part of the NBA.
The Blazers take care of business. Time to play real teams.
Tuesday, Dec. 30: vs. the Toronto Raptors, CSNNW, 7:00 PM
The Skinny: The Raptors looked like world-beaters coming out of the gate, ripping off a couple long winning streaks before DeMar DeRozen, Toronto’s All-Star wing player, hurt his groin. With DeRozen, they were clearly the class of the East in the early part of the season. With Chicago and Cleveland dealing with internal issues, the time seemed ripe for #WeTheNorth.
Unfortunately, without their All-Star, Toronto’s looked pedestrian. As of right now, they have the same record as Portland at 20-6 and are on a four-game winning streak, but that streak and overall record was built by beating up on weak teams, and after DeRozen went down, Cleveland defeated the Raptors twice in a span of four days. They’ve struggled against teams not feeding on the bottom of the NBA standings; we knew DeRozen was important, but a guy like him shouldn’t cause this drastic a change by missing games.
On Monday, Toronto starts a six-game road trip against the Bulls, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Warriors (!), and Suns. If they win more than two of those games, I’ll be genuinely impressed…and more than a little shocked.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Kyle Lowry. If a pit bull could assume a human form, it would be Lowry; the man may stand six feet in high heels, but his strong frame, quick hands and utter stubbornness make him a fearsome defender. On offense, he’s averaging almost 20 points a game while dishing out 7.8 APG.
He’s not a great shooter, but with DeRozen sidelined, he will chuck when he has to. Running pick-and-rolls with Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto’s young center, and the underrated forward Amir Johnson gets the offense started, and from there Lowry is free to make his decisions: pass to the corner for a three, drive to the hoop, or if the big man pops out (all of Toronto’s bigs can shoot the mid-range jumper), bounce it over for an open shot.
Playing against Lowry is like rolling around in rough, flea-infested pet bedding, then being unable to itch yourself for 48 minutes because your hands are tied and kitchen mitts have been placed on them. Thankfully, Lillard’s as tough-minded an individual as you’ll find in the league. If anyone can match Lowry attitude-for-attitude, it’s Lillard.
Prediction: Toronto will be well into the road trip by the 30th, and the Blazers will have been home standing for a solid week. Lillard and Co. wrap Lowry in a straitjacket, Aldridge schools Valanciunas, and Portland defeats Toronto.
Saturday, Jan. 3: vs. the Atlanta Hawks, CSNNW, 7:00 PM
The Skinny: Imagine the way the San Antonio Spurs play basketball: constant motion, making the extra pass, bending the defense until it breaks, giving you the shot you wanted all along. It’s poetry in motion, a precise basketball dance that’s dissected NBA teams for years.
Former Spurs assistant, and current Hawks coach, Mike Budenholzer wants his team to play like this. Some, like point guard Jeff Teague and wing sniper Kyle Korver, have taken to Spursball like fish to water. Others, like franchise big Al Horford and third guard Dennis Schroeder, have looked like fish out of water.
Horford is scoring less and shooting less that he did the last two years, on a per-game basis. His free-throw rate has always stunk for a big man, but he’s barely getting to the line at just one attempt a game. His struggles are somewhat understandable because he’s just recovered from a torn pectoral, a muscle he’s torn twice now in his career–repeat injuries to the exact same spot are always a frightening sign.
A player as gifted as Horford is, however, shouldn’t be scoring only 14 points and grabbing six boards a game. No matter the excuse, whether it’s Horford not trusting his body or Budenholzer somehow not finding a way to make use of a multitalented big man in his three-happy schemes. If the Hawks want to drag themselves out of the good-but-never-great pit they’ve been consigned to since the Dominique Wilkins days, Horford needs to do more. Horford must do more.
Key Matchup: Nicolas Batum vs. Kyle Korver. Korver is the deadliest weapon in the modern NBA today. Want proof? First, look at his shooting from three-point range. It’s 54%. FIFTY-FOUR PERCENT. HE MAKES MORE THAN HALF HIS THREES.
And he shoots more than five a game. The guy averages 13 points a game, and gets them almost exclusively from behind the arc. He never, ever misses an open shot; I’ve watched Hawks games where an opposing player would get rubbed off a screen, leaving Korver a millimeter of breathing room. Teague would rifle a pass to the spot Korver is running to, he’ll catch the ball on the hop, then let it fly in a smooth, rhythmic motion. The ball slashes through for three, the opposing coach calls time, and the guy who let Kyle Korver get loose is nailed to the bench for the rest of the quarter.
Korver bends defenses just by moving. His usage of screens and the geometry of basketball is equaled only by Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, and Chris Mullin, Hall of Famers and arguably the three most prolific shooters in the history of the sport. Korver never learned to dribble-drive or defend well enough in his early days, but in one singular aspect of the game–shooting–he has no equal in the game today.
Batum has to use his speed and length to deny Korver shots. Korver’s mere presence is enough to make Atlanta’s offense go, but the Blazers can’t afford to let Korver hurt them on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Portland proves too much for Atlanta; they have nobody capable of guarding Aldridge, and the Blazers are better offensively than the Hawks. If Atlanta wants a shootout, they’ll leave Portland disappointed.
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