The Portland Trail Blazers actually did it. They finally pulled the trigger and brought over shooting guard Arron Afflalo in a trade with their division rival, the Denver Nuggets.
The fact that they did it isn’t in the least surprising; the whole league has known of GM Neil Olshey’s man crush on Denver’s multitude of wing players for some time, and Portland’s had a season-long need for the kind of skills Afflalo can bring.
How Olshey acquired Afflalo is the part that’s both shocking and pure freaking genius. Portland gave up Thomas Robinson, Will Barton, Victor Claver, and a lottery-protected 2016 pick that the Blazers have every intention of surrendering next year. Basically, they turned a pile of table scraps and offal into a pretty good dinner.
Giving up nothing of any consequence for a guy slightly overqualified to be the sixth man on a contending team is as good a deal as the Blazers could get, and kudos to them for taking advantage of Denver’s fire-sale attitude.
I know Afflalo has a player option for next year that he’s likely declining, but come on, you can get more than bench bums and a future pick destined for the 20s for a top-eight shooting guard! At least the Nuggets finally realize it’s time to tear that team down.
But this isn’t about Denver. It’s about Afflalo, and how he fits in with our beloved Trail Blazers.
Looking at his shooting stats, Afflalo’s offensive game is basically “shoot a jumper, from mid-range or above the break.” He’s taken most of his 243 three-point attempts outside the corners, which is where Portland’s guards take their threes in coach Terry Stotts’ offense.
They don’t actively pass the ball till it gets to the corners, like Atlanta, but with LaMarcus Aldridge starting to extend his range to the three-point corner, that area might get more use.
As for the mid-range, his shooting from there is fantastic, at 50%. He’s got a Wesley Matthews-like post game from the right side, and he’s used it to bludgeon anybody he can pin down there.
Afflalo’s shooting is down considerably from past years, but he’s still a career 38% three-point shooter, and he’s cracked the elite 40% mark five times in his eight seasons. Without the toxic environment in Denver, and with the spacing afforded to him playing with, you know, good NBA players, Afflalo’s percentages stand a good chance of going up.
Otherwise on offense, he’s basically a Matthews clone. He doesn’t rebound much, his playmaking is generally poor (though he should fare better than Matthews), and he’s a fairly smart player.
He’ll take a few games to adjust, and he’ll likely never really get into the full swing of things (NBA teams can’t practice all that much in the regular season), but jump-shooting and post skills travel. Offensively, Afflalo won’t be asked to do more than he’s capable of, and he’s capable of plenty.
Defensively, he’s been a net negative (-3.6 net rating), but I chalk that up to the Nuggets being a giant pile of suck more than anything Afflalo’s done; you try defending the world’s best players when you have Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson behind you, offering no rim protection and standing around as the James Hardens of the world blow by for a dunk.
Afflalo isn’t a bulldog like Matthews, but he’s fairly long, he’s a veteran, and after a few games of watching Blazers tape (and likely some not-so-gentle prodding from Stotts and LaMarcus Aldridge), he should be fine.
Having four other guys on the floor with him that have a structure on both ends of the floor should bring out the best in Afflalo. If it doesn’t, the Blazers gave up nothing of value for a three-month rental that didn’t fit in anyway. Win-win, baby.
So, a nine-man playoff rotation of LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, Chris Kaman, Steve Blake, and an improved Meyers Leonard…
You excited, Rip City? I sure am.
With this season being a transition year in the NBA, everybody’s making their own moves, chasing a title like a large group of sharks chasing a meal.
Only one shark’s gonna get to eat, and the Blazers did what they could to improve their odds of eating. Buckle up.
Now to get to this weekend’s games! Let’s go! (All games on AM 620 radio, all stats per NBA.com)
Friday, Feb. 20: @ the Utah Jazz, CSNNW, 6:00 PM
(Note: Afflalo won’t be available for this game. He’s in Portland taking the mandatory post-trade physical.)
The Skinny: While the Blazers were doing their own deals, the Jazz executed a blockbuster of their own. They unclogged their crowded frontcourt by dumping Enes Kanter, who’s going to be a restricted free agent, to the Oklahoma City Thunder along with bench warming sharpshooter Steve Novak.
Utah got Kendrick Perkins, but they’ll buy him out because they don’t need him. The Jazz received a couple draft picks (including a first-rounder) for a guy in Kanter who was an awkward fit, and who was likely going to get eight-figure offers once the season ended.
Oh, and Rudy Gobert gets more minutes, which is always a good thing.
Even though they got nobody back who could help them right now, it isn’t about right now for Utah. Seeing what Gobert can give them in addition to the established young stars Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, and hoping Trey Burke and/or Dante Exum can emerge as the top guard, will be the focus for these last 30 or so games of the season.
Key Matchup: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Rudy Gobert. I actually did get to watch the last game these teams played, and Aldridge looked as good as he usually does against Favors and Kanter. In the first half, Aldridge carried his team during a predictably close game against a scrappy Jazz squad.
The curveball Jazz coach Quin Snyder threw at Aldridge to begin the second half, though, was starting Gobert and siccing him on Aldridge. I think Aldridge had only four or five points after the half; it was a very low number, and it was thanks entirely to the Stifle Tower, who stands 7-2 with a 7-6 wingspan, allowing him a standing reach (repeat: STANDING REACH) that lets him graze the rim with his fingertips. The kid is a couple inches away from being able to stand and dunk.
There’s no chance of getting one of those patented Aldridge turnarounds over THAT.
With Kanter gone and the last game on tape, Snyder will likely have Gobert hound Aldridge all game. The Blazers will either have to punish the Utah perimeter guys, or Aldridge will need to get real creative, really fast.
Prediction: I’m tempted to be a jerk and say Utah steals one, but I’m not comfortable saying a team that starts a teenager in Exum at the point will beat a team starting a fresh and angry Damian Lillard. Portland wins.
Sunday, Feb. 22: versus the Memphis Grizzlies, CSNNW, 6:00 PM
The Skinny: Memphis already acquired Jeff Green some time ago, so they stood pat at the deadline. Not that they needed to make any more moves; as long as Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph stay relatively healthy, the Grizzlies are good enough to win it all.
They go two-deep at every position, coach Dave Joerger is an underrated tactician, and the Grindhouse in Memphis is absolute hell to play a playoff game in for opponents.
This game is a chance for Portland, at home, to start cutting into the Grizzlies’ three-game lead over them in the standings, as well as a way to measure themselves against one of the best teams in the league.
Oh, and this should be Arron Afflalo’s first game as a Blazer! Nice first assignment: play the brutally tough Grizzlies in a typical Western Conference deathmatch.
Hope the new guy gets used to it.
Key Matchup: Damian Lillard vs. Mike Conley. The frontcourts for both these teams get all the attention, but both these point guards are just as vital to their teams.
The differences in their life stories, compared to where they are now, are fascinating to me. Conley grew up as a basketball blueblood, the point guard on all those AAU super teams when he was in high school. He played with Greg Oden at Ohio State, and almost won a national title.
His professional career, like so many other high school big-timers, has fallen far short of the lofty heights of his youth. Conley has had to scrap and struggle just for playing time, and the famously hard-driving Lionel Hollins, the point guard on Portland’s 1977 NBA championship team, got on him every day.
To his great credit, Conley didn’t sulk like others with his background would have done. He took the indignities of losing starting spots and playing time without complaint, watched his competitors get shipped out of Memphis one by one, and when it was his turn at the wheel, he was fully prepared. He’s the maestro of a revamped Memphis attack that could finally bring them to the promised land.
In contrast to Conley, Lillard grew up in a tough neighborhood in Oakland, lightly regarded and largely ignored by the basketball community. He practiced his shot by tossing basketballs through a hoop-sized space between two twisted, gnarled oak branches, staying away from the broken-asphalt courts where the gang bangers could get at him.
Lillard went to Weber State in Provo, Utah, and stayed the full four years, a rarity for star players in this one-and-done era. When he was drafted sixth overall by the Trail Blazers, ESPN had their analytics and cap expert, Tom Penn (who actually used to work for the Blazers), pull out charts and video explaining why Lillard was a good draft choice.
From day one, with his personality, killer attitude on the court, and penchant for dramatic endings, the Lillard hype machine has resulted in national commercials (Foot Locker and State Farm). He’s made two All-Star game appearances, become a unanimous Rookie of the Year, made an All-NBA team, and is recognized as one of the up-and-coming young stars in professional basketball…things people might have expected from Mike Conley.
Their backgrounds and careers so far might be contrasts, but the value they have to their respective teams is similar. Neither one likes being outplayed, and both will try like hell to outplay the other.
Prediction: The Blazers have been awful against Memphis all year. Even with Afflalo in the fold, that won’t change overnight. Portland loses.
Last week, the Blazers beat the Lakers before going on a nine-day break.
Trail Blazers’ Record: 36-17 (3rd in West)
Jared’s Picks Record: 35-18
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